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Sensitivity Study of a Coupled Carbon Dioxide Meteorological Modeling System with Case Studies

András Zénó Gyöngyösi, Tamás Weidinger, László Haszpra, Zsuzsanna Iványi and Hiroaki Kondo. Sensitivity Study of a Coupled Carbon Dioxide Meteorological Modeling System with Case Studies. The NIRE CO2 @ ETA model. Overview. Short model description NIRE ETA Implementation NIRE ETA

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Sensitivity Study of a Coupled Carbon Dioxide Meteorological Modeling System with Case Studies

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  1. András Zénó Gyöngyösi, Tamás Weidinger, László Haszpra, Zsuzsanna Iványi and Hiroaki Kondo Sensitivity Study of a Coupled Carbon Dioxide Meteorological Modeling System with Case Studies The NIRE CO2 @ ETA model

  2. Overview • Short model description • NIRE • ETA • Implementation • NIRE • ETA • Coupling of NIRE to ETA • Sensitivity studies • Case studies • Conclusion, future works

  3. Model Description • NIRE • Mesoscale circulation model (simple dynamics) • Dispersion model • Boussinesq-approximation • Anelastic equations • Terrain following s-coordinate (vrbl. res.) • Staggered (Arakawa) grid • First order turbulent closure (K ~ Richardson #) • Vertical diff – implicit solver • Horizontal diff – just for numerical stability • Srfc: Monin-Obuhov; Energy Balance Eq. • Soil: Thermal conductivity eq.

  4. Surface parameterization H2O: passive scalar, saturation @ srfc • No clouds, relevant in sfc heat balance CO2: • Vegetation (Photosynth.+Res.) for each veg. mosaic => synthesized flux • Anthropogen: • area sources @ srfc (heating and traffic) • large stacks – plume rise (CONCAWE)

  5. Boundary conditioning; Numerical integration • Lateral bndry • Flow relaxation zone • Top bndry • Sponge layer • Initialization • Dynamical init. – spin-up • Time integration: Leap frog – Forward each 20th step to adjust numerical mode

  6. Implementation • Surface files • IGBP landcover landuse database (USGS) • Sensitivity test • Dynamics • Superadiabatic stratification • Strong wind • Basin • Carpathian Basin @ bndry: nonlinear interaction topography -- bndry

  7. Model bndry interacts w/ topography – strong nonlinear effects More effective bndry conditions are necessary

  8. Sensitivity Study Mixing layer depth (Convective PBL)@ different cloud amounts Time evolution of CO2 in the model domain

  9. The “Meteorological driver” • NCEP/ETA model (EMS NWS/NOAA): • Limited area NWP model • Primitive hydrostatic eqs – non-hydrost. Option • Modified terrain following coordinate system • Eta (modified sigma) • approx horiz. srfs separatio nof lee flow • sfc & PBL param. sophisticated

  10. Adaptation of ETA Adaptation • ”Operational” run for Central Europe • “Operational” run for Central Europe + Budapest Init & bndry conds downloaded from NCEP every morning

  11. Dynamical Test (non-hydrostatic option) • Hydrostatic equations, non-hydrostatic effects parameterized • Small-scale effect are more non-hydrost. • Small impact on solutions • In the standard run non-hydrost. Option not implemented • DF init. not used

  12. The Mass field Pressure falling (approaching system) NH departure 9m Psfc H500 ∆h~-.4—1.4 h~5530—5620

  13. The Wind field NH wind stronger more KE generation NH departures associated with topography

  14. Coupling NIRE to ETA • Super-adiabatic lapse rate instab • Extreme wind speed  • instab @ lat & top bndry • Flow relax term  • changed to sine shape • Top sponge layer enlarged • Adiabat. adjustment:

  15. A Case study • Cold inversion in the Basin 02 February 2006 “Inversion case” • Convective boundary layer after the decay of the inversion 06 February 2006 “Convection case”

  16. Effect of a single large stack Plume rise (CONCAWE – Briggs, 1968) 200 m high 280 m3/s @ 3000C 1000 t/day CO2 emission Located in the middle of the domain

  17. Time evolution of temperature Inversion Convection

  18. Temperature Profiles @ different time of the day Inversion Convection

  19. Time evolution of CO2 Inversion Convection

  20. CO2 Profiles @ different time of the day Inversion Convection

  21. 12 LST

  22. 15 LST

  23. 18 LST

  24. 22 LST

  25. Conclusion • NIRE is able to provide realistic meteorological conditions in suitable initial and boundary conditions taken from ETA • The modular structure of it makes them suitable for PBL tests • The coupled system is able to calculate concentration for different extreme meteorological conditions

  26. Future works • Introduction of newer parameterization schemes into the CO2 model – further sensitivity and case studies • Daily coupled system runs for the estimation of annual variation of surface fluxes • Estimation of annual Carbon budget of the Carpatian Basin

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