Space/GMES and Climate Change

1. Space/GMES and Climate Change Mikko Strahlendorff, GMES Bureau

2. GMES Overall View USERS Policy Makers Private, Commercial & & What is their need? Public Examples ofServices Provided Farming Arctic change Oil Spill Tracking Air Quality Flood Surveillance InformationServices Land Marine Atmosphere Emergency Security Climate In Situ Infrastructure Sustainable observation Space Infrastructure & OBSERVATION

3. GMES is an EU led initiative In-situ component – coordinated by EEA Observations mostly within national responsibility with coordination at European level air, sea- and ground-based systems and instruments Space Component – coordinated by ESA Sentinels - EO missions developed specifically for GMES: Contributing Missions - EO missions built for purposes other than GMES but offering part of their capacity to GMES (EU/ESA MSs, EUMETSAT, commercial, international) Service Component – coordinated by EC Earth System services - Land, Atmosphere, Marine Crosscutting services - Emergency response, Security, Climate Change GMES Components

4. Sea Level Change 1970-2010

5. GMES soon EU programme Commission Proposal for a Regulation European earth observation Programme GMES and its initial operations (2011-2013) adopted on 20 May 2009 - codecision in high gear • Main objectives • European earth observation programme • scope, organisational arrangements, data policy, infrastructure • 6 thematic areas: land, ocean, atmosphere, emergency, security & climate change • Rules for initial operations • propose supplementary funding

6. Council requests on CC • Space CouncilSeptember 2008 • Recognised space & CC as key priority • Asked for study on needs for full access to standardised data/for increased computing power • Called on EC to define how GMES services and European space observation archives can contribute most effectively to the provision of data • Competitiveness Council December 2008 • invited EC to foster the implementation of the GMES climate change monitoring to support the EU policies

7. EC response • JRC hosted a workshop incl. EC, space agencies, meteorological and research org. • As a result a study report has been drafted summarising the workshop findings • Need for standardised data confirmed • Need for more distributed computing and networking confirmed • Absolute need for operational funding for global re-analysis • No need for central CC research Institute. • Outcome justifies moving forward on the political front, especially with announced EC priorities for the years to come: ”need to provide necessary data basis for our policies, especially adaptation”

8. Situation today • GCOS has made global plan for UNFCCC and GEO • EUMETSAT operational activities with own satellites; • climate requirements in future programmes & produce climate data records from archives (SAFs) • ESA building Sentinels for GMES as operational fleet from 2012 onwards and has many research missions • 6-year Climate Change Initiative • ECMWF has global atmospheric reanalysis modelling • GMES reanalysis of ECVs in service precursors (MyOcean,MACC) & 3 climate projects in call 2009 • FP7 Environment: research projects on Climate scenarios, Adaptation costs, Regional CC impacts etc.

9. Way forward: Space obs • Europe needs a long-term collection from space to assess climate variables • Continue with ESA and EUMETSAT actions • Add GMES Sentinels as new continuous component • Archive all to enable reprocessing & finding new information in old records • Complement Space with globally distributed in-situ to maximise information quality and coverage

10. Way forward: Exploit space-derived climate data • Europe needs operational assimilation, processing and reanalysis of satellite-derived data for long-term, continuous and consistent climate information • ECMWF has capacity for global reanalysis • Until now only time-limited research funding • Need to establish sustained operational services • All ECVs need to be assessed under resource constrains

11. Service process scheme RTD ENV/ CC CC models • initialisation • prediction ESA CCI or EUM SAFs GMES Users: Socio economic Models; Environm. Assessment; Downstream services; Policy Makers; Scientists Fundamental Climate DR TCDR=NRT ECV products Delayed consistent ECV time series and impact stats GCC service Coupled (L,M,A) Global / EU ReAnalysis + Impact models ESA / EUMETSAT satellite data processing LandMCS MarineCS GAtmosCS

12. Conclusions • use current GMES resources to start for sustaining the most crucial climate services • coordinate with all relevant European actors the information processing activities: from “observations” up to “inputs to decision-makers” with coherence between actors including organising reanalysis and climate scenario production • prioritise observation requirements for climate monitoring in designing future observation systems; • develop with European actors a proactive strategy with international partners to jointly meet the challenge of providing the best global knowledge base on climate using existing frameworks