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Value-Focused Thinking

Value-Focused Thinking . Dr. Greg Parnell Virginia Commonwealth University. Overview. Structure of Decisions Value-Focused Thinking Definition Benefits Obstacles Requirements Summary. Structure of Decisions. Values What do we want?. Information What do we know?. Alternatives

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Value-Focused Thinking

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  1. Value-Focused Thinking Dr. Greg Parnell Virginia Commonwealth University

  2. Overview • Structure of Decisions • Value-Focused Thinking • Definition • Benefits • Obstacles • Requirements • Summary

  3. Structure of Decisions Values What do we want? Information What do we know? Alternatives What can we do? Key Idea: Use our strategic values to create decision opportunities

  4. Alternative Focused Thinking Initial Alternatives Evaluate

  5. Alternative-Focused Thinking Value-Focused Thinking Values Initial Alternatives New & Initial Alternatives Evaluate Change Thinking If you want better decisions, find better alternatives! Evaluate (Values)

  6. creating alternatives identifying decision opportunities uncovering hidden objectives guiding strategic thinking evaluating alternatives Thinking About Values improving communication facilitating involvement guiding information collection Benefits of Value Focused Thinking inter- connecting decisions Keeney, Ralph L., Value Focused Thinking: A Path To Creative Decisionmaking, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA, 1992, pp. 3-28.

  7. VFT: Guiding Strategic Thinking Strategic Objective Objective 1 Objective 2 Objective 3 • Strategic objectives should guide our decision-making • Strategic objectives are stable over time • Means to obtain these objectives vary over time

  8. SPACECAST 2020 Value ModelMissions from JCS PUB 3-14

  9. Greg Parnell's Professional Values Be an internationally recognized decision analyst & Professor of Mathematical Sciences (Operations Research) Publish important research & be in demand as consultant Be an excellent teacher & mentor Perform significant professional service

  10. Strategic Objective Objective 1 Objective 2 Objective 3 VFT: Facilitates Involvement in Multiple-Stakeholder Decisions • Focuses stakeholder interaction on values • Discussions more productive • Key issues become explicit • Postpones discussion of alternatives

  11. VFT: Uncovering Hidden Objectives Strategic Objective Objective 2 Objective 3 Objective 1 Objective 4 • Some objectives require considerable thought to uncover • Some stakeholders have incentives not to identify objectives

  12. VFT: Improving Communications • Facilitates communications and understanding between all stakeholders • Avoids technical language of many specialties

  13. VFT: Decision Opportunities • Assess how we will attain future strategic objectives • Objectives not being attained • Objectives that are or will be degrading • Focus our creativity to identify opportunities to create value

  14. Develop research agenda & thesis research topics Greg Parnell's Professional Values Be a internationally recognized decision analyst & Professor of Mathematical Sciences (Operations Research) Be an excellent teacher Publish important research Perform significant & mentor & be in demand as consultant professional service Develop world class Maintain & build friendships University Work on challenging decision & risk analysis courses Community problems Nationally/Internationally Perform university Service Math Sciences Dept Develop outstanding Build strong research H & S School operations research courses program VCU Support INFORMS/MORS Teach undergraduate courses that attract Professional Objectives operations research students Local/National Enhance Math Sciences (OR) Attract excellent Provide sound academic undergraduate & MS thesis students & professional advice graduate programs Be a member Increase program of PhD committees awareness - Locally Nationally/Internationally Obtain funding for Build network to help summer & students graduates get jobs Get research & consulting work published

  15. Strategic Objective 20% 30% 50% Objective 1 Objective 2 Objective 3 30% 40% 30% Subobjective A Subobjective B Subobjective C Measure of Merit A Measure of Merit B Measure of Merit C VFT: Evaluating Alternatives • Develop value model to evaluate alternatives • Identify subobjectives required to achieve objectives • Identify measures of merit that quantify the value of achieving subobjectives • Assign weight to the subobjectives and objectives

  16. SPACECAST 2020 Value ModelWeighted Score = Improvement Score X Force Quality Weight X Task Weight X Mission Weight OBJECTIVE 0.19 0.37 0.22 0.22 MISSION TASK 0.25 0.20 0.22 0.07 0.18 0.08 FORCE QUALITY 0.35 0.35 0.20 0.10 MEASURE OF MERIT CURRENT (0.0) CAPABILITY IMPROVEMENT: MINOR (0.1) SIGNIFICANT (0.5) ORDER OF MAGNITUDE (0.9)

  17. Strategic Objective 20% 30% 50% Objective 1 Objective 2 Objective 3 30% 40% 30% Subobjective A Subobjective B Subobjective C Measure of Merit A Measure of Merit B Measure of Merit C VFT: Guiding Information Collection • Value model indicates the important information • Collect information to • Create better alternatives • Credibly evaluate alternatives

  18. VFT: Creating Alternatives Strategic Objective 20% 30% 50% Objective 1 Objective 2 Objective 3 Alternative A Alternative B Alternative B Alternative C • Advocates will propose several alternatives • Focus creativity to generate alternatives that create value

  19. VFT: Interconnecting Decisions Strategic Objective 20% 30% 50% Objective 1 Objective 2 Objective 3 30% 40% 30% Task A Task B Task C Measure of Merit A Measure of Merit B Measure of Merit C • Value model assessments of alternatives • Objective • Traceable • Robust

  20. SPACECAST 2020Operational Analysis Summary (Sensitivity to Weights) 5 TAV High Energy Laser (HEL) 4 3 Global Surveillance, Recon, & Targeting System (GSRT) High Power Microwave Orbital Transfer Vehicle (OTV) Kinetic Energy Weapons (KEW) 2 Particle Beam Weather Forecasting System Super GPS Space Traffic Control (SPATRACS) Orbital Maneuvering Vehicle Space Modular Systems Asteroid Detection Weather Control 1 Solar Mirror Space Solar Monitoring Ionospheric Forecasting TECHNOLOGICAL CHALLENGE

  21. Obstacles to Value-Focused Thinking • Alternative Focused Thinking • “Drunk looking for car keys under the lamp post” • Worrying too much about the “weights” • Lack of an environment that encourages creativity

  22. Requirements for Value-Focused Thinking • Study leadership support • Support from study team • Experienced analysis team

  23. Summary Value Model Has a Central Role Strategic Objective Objective 1 Objective 2 Objective 3 Subobjective A Subobjective B Subobjective C Measure of Merit C Measure of Merit A Measure of Merit B Value-Focused Thinking helps us use our strategic objectives to create value

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