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Modelling Climate Change and Cumulative Effects. Colin Daniel Apex Resource Management Solutions www.apexrms.com. What is a Model?. Conceptual Models. Development can disturb caribou. “Representation of a particular thing, idea, condition”. 2. Quantitative Models.
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Modelling Climate Change and Cumulative Effects Colin Daniel Apex Resource Management Solutions www.apexrms.com
What is a Model? • Conceptual Models Development can disturb caribou “Representation of a particular thing, idea, condition” 2. Quantitative Models
Past Integrated Modelling Projects • Modeling Sustainability of Arctic Communities (2004) • How will climate changeand oil development affect the availability of caribou to villages surrounding the PCH? • Modelling Effects of Development on the Bathurst Caribou Herd (2009-?) • What are the potential effects of mine development and climate change on the summer range of the Bathurst herd?
Modelling Bathurst Summer Range • Activities Considered: • Active Mines • Mineral Exploration Activities • Outfitter Camps • Scenarios Considered: • 3 levels of development (None, Current, 2X) • 3 climate scenarios (average, best, worst)
Preliminary Results • Demonstrated approach possible
Preliminary Results • Demonstrated approach possible • Limited effect on fall body weight due to displacement and activity change
Preliminary Results • Demonstrated approach possible • Limited effect on fall body weight due to displacement and activity change • Effect of climate on fall body weight
Preliminary Results • Demonstrated approach possible • Limited effect on fall body weight due to displacement and activity change • Effect of climate on fall body weight • Identified key data gaps: • Activity budgets • Summer range body condition data • Biomass estimates
Why Build Quantitative Models? • Integrate understanding • Explicit assumptions • Quantify predictions • “What-if?” analysis • Identify data needs and knowledge gaps • Prioritize future research & monitoring • Require resources & expertise!
June a critical time for caribou • Calving • Peak energy and protein demands • Most rapid change in plant growth • Major shifts in diet • Early calf survival linked to timing green-up of plants • Cows and calves most sensitive to disturbance
Griffiths et al.. • Russell et al.. • Manseau.. • Parrett..
June - Energy and protein intake • Timing of • peak lactation – • 10 days after calving