1 / 18

Amazon , inc

Amazon.com , inc. Nick Romjue. agenda. Common size balance sheet and income statement Full information forecast of income statement and balance sheet Forecast of EPM and EATO using forecasted financials Forecast of NEA and EPAT using new EPM and EATO Discounted cash flow model

binta
Download Presentation

Amazon , inc

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Amazon.com,inc Nick Romjue

  2. agenda • Common size balance sheet and income statement • Full information forecast of income statement and balance sheet • Forecast of EPM and EATO using forecasted financials • Forecast of NEA and EPAT using new EPM and EATO • Discounted cash flow model • Adjustments to enterprise value • Final valuation and investment decision

  3. Common size income statement

  4. Common size balance sheet - assets

  5. Common size balance sheet- Liabilities

  6. Common size balance sheet – stockholders equity

  7. Full information forecast – i/s

  8. Epm forecast

  9. Full information forecast – b/s assets

  10. Full information forecast – b/s liabilities

  11. Full information forecast – b/s stockholders equity

  12. Eato forecast

  13. Full information nea and epat forecasts

  14. Dcf valuation thru 2018

  15. Dcf valuation thru 2023

  16. Final valuation • After adjusting for debt, final value is $146,378 • There are 460 million shares outstanding • Share price value based on my valuation is $318.49 • Actual trading price is $329.32 • Decision: SELL

  17. Factors leading to sell decision • My model operates under the assumption that EPM will climb dramatically • Amazon has not shown an ability to improve their margins • Biggest issue: they sell everything at the lowest possible price, so margins are naturally thin • My model assumes a declining growth rate but is still optimistic • Growth rate could fall off more rapidly and sooner • Everything has broken right for Amazon thus far – the market could panic at their first major struggle

  18. Questions?

More Related