SADC THEMA POLICY MAKERS WORKSHOP

1. SADC THEMA POLICY MAKERS WORKSHOP 8th – 11th October 2012 USE OF AMESD PRODUCTS & SERVICES TO SUPPORT DECISION MAKING IN ZAMBIA Edward Falanga - NFP Drought

2. As envisioned in the AMESD project, the SADC thematic services are expected to provide decision makers with informative products derived from processed remotely sensed environmental data. • As one of its major roles, the Zambia Meteorological Department (ZMD) Monitors the deviation of rainfall amounts received from the known climatic normal every rainy season (for food security purposes). • The AMESD SADC Thema Drought service therefore adds another dimension to ZMD’s Monitoring of Drought using remotely sensed vegetation indices. Edward Falanga - NFP Drought

3. Several Vegetation indices like the VCI, PASG, NDVI difference and NDVITime Series are usedto Monitor Drought, come up with Drought Hazard Indicators and map out Drought Risk Areas. • See some research documents on the use of RS indices to monitor drought on the hyperlink below • Remotely sensed vegetation indices have been used to monitor drought in the northern Great Plains of the USA, in the south of the Huang-Huai-Hai region in the north of China, in Mozambiaque, in South Korea and Many other places worldwide. • The informative products derived thereof are relevant to decision and or policy makers as they will positively contribute to improved planning, management and mitigation of the effects of drought on affected populations and areas. Edward Falanga - NFP Drought

4. VEGETATION BASED INDICES Zambia Long Term Cumulative NDVI Edward Falanga - NFP Drought

5. Edward Falanga - NFP Drought

6. Fig. 2 Shows that By the first dekad of January 2012, the condition of the vegetation in some parts of Northern, Luapula, Central and Northwestern provinces was below the 35 % threshold (A drought Risk Phenomenon). Fig. 3 Shows that By the third dekad of January2012, in comparison with the long term average, significant areas in Luapula and Northern provinces hard their NDVI values well below the Long term average. Edward Falanga - NFP Drought

7. The Standardized Difference Vegetation Index (SDVI), a smoothed Index, shows some areas with vegetation condition in the negative. Edward Falanga - NFP Drought

8. MKUSHI DISTRICT CUMULATIVE NDVI TIME SERIES ANALYSIS 2011- 2012 Rain Season Cumulative NDVI October November December January February Dekads 2011-2012 Season Cum NDVI Higher than Long term Average. Inference: Healthy Vegetation Edward Falanga - NFP Drought

9. SESHEKE DISTRICT CUMULATIVE NDVI TIME SERIES ANALYSIS 2011- 2012 Rain Season Cumulative NDVI October November December January February Dekads 2011 - 2012 Seasonal Cum NDVI Lower than LtAvg. Inference: Unhealthy Vegetation Edward Falanga - NFP Drought

10. Drought Free Drought Prone Edward Falanga - NFP Drought

11. Drought Hazard Masked out Cultivated Areas 10/10/2011 – 21/01/2012 Higher Drought Risk to the North-eastern Parts of Zambia. No Agric Mask to the west Edward Falanga - NFP Drought

12. Rainfall Decile Map giving a ranking of rainfall for a specific period in terms of the historical time series. . Edward Falanga - NFP Drought

13. A value of 1 Represents rainfall as low or lower than that experienced in the driest 10% of a particular period historically. A value of 10 Represents rainfall as high or higher than the value recorded in the wettest 10% of the same period. Rainfall Deciles therefore add a measure of significance to the rainfall deviation. Edward Falanga - NFP Drought

14. Advisory: Based on the analysis Vegetation performance indices discussed above, advisories can then be derived and given to decision makers either in hard copy (bulletin), electronically (email), or broadcast (print or electronic media), the modes already in use by ZMD. This information is then used by decision makers in planning for, managing and mitigating the effects of drought Whenever it occurs. Edward Falanga - NFP Drought

15. Thank You Edward Falanga - NFP Drought