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Finnish Shipping requirements in 2025 -a megatrend approach

Finnish Shipping requirements in 2025 -a megatrend approach. Eero Pyhäranta 29.8.2013. Agenda. Research question Methodology Megatrends Industry summaries & shipping requirements Conclusions Q&A. Research Question.

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Finnish Shipping requirements in 2025 -a megatrend approach

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  1. Finnish Shipping requirements in 2025 -a megatrend approach EeroPyhäranta 29.8.2013

  2. Agenda • Research question • Methodology • Megatrends • Industry summaries & shipping requirements • Conclusions • Q&A Finnish Shipping requirements - A megatrend approach

  3. ResearchQuestion • To analyze the current megatrends and their affects to ship transportation in Finland. • To analyze industry trends to determine the transportation needs in 2025 • What type of cargo? • What will be the volume? Finnish Shipping requirements - A megatrend approach

  4. Methodology Finnish Shipping requirements - A megatrend approach

  5. Gigatrend review • Gigatrend = globalphenomenabehind the megatrends • Gigatrends • Populationgrowth • Economicalgrowth • Technologicaldevelopment • ”Speedup” Finnish Shipping requirements - A megatrend approach

  6. Megatrendreview Finnish Shipping requirements - A megatrend approach

  7. Industry Summary: Metal And Mineral Industry (1/2) Finnish Shipping requirements - A megatrend approach

  8. Industry Summary: Metal And Mineral Industry (2/2) • Possible development • Export of late and mid-cycle minerals is expected to increase. • Transportation volumes will increase • Alternative transportation routes? • Volatility in the mineral markets will increase • Transportation needs to adapt to the situation Finnish Shipping requirements - A megatrend approach

  9. Industry Summary: Chemical Industry (1/3) • Chemical industry has invested the most in Finland during the last few years. • EU is and will remain as the most important market for the industry. • Bulky chemicals are expected to flow from Asia to Europe. Finnish Shipping requirements - A megatrend approach

  10. Industry Summary: Chemical Industry (2/3) Finnish Shipping requirements - A megatrend approach

  11. Industry Summary: Chemical Industry (3/3) • Open questions • Despite chemical industry has invested the most, tanker capacity is not increased! • Some studies estimate oil volumes to decline? • Solid chemicals (fertilizers, etc.) • Rail road cargo? Finnish Shipping requirements - A megatrend approach

  12. Industry Summary: Forest, Pulp & Paper (1/2) • Structural change in the industry • Wood product industry focus on more specialized and more processed materials • Transportation requirements might differ • No major changes in the wood product cargo. Finnish Shipping requirements - A megatrend approach

  13. Industry Summary: Forest, Pulp & Paper (2/2) • Pulp & paper cargo will decrease • How to balance the import / export? • Generally, pulp and paper companies are still focusing on operational improvements not in new investments. • ”Bio-economy” takes time Finnish Shipping requirements - A megatrend approach

  14. Industry Summary: Technology Industry (1/3) Finnish Shipping requirements - A megatrend approach R&D expenses, investments

  15. Industry Summary: Technology Industry (2/3) • Focus on high value investment goods • Adjustable production and on time deliveries • Volumes might decrease in the future • Investments in R&D, sales and other supporting functions • Real investments have been decreasing • Focus on niche markets • Value of the cargo will increase Finnish Shipping requirements - A megatrend approach

  16. Industry Summary: Technology Industry (3/3) • Cargo will be more volatile • Technological trends and product cycles even shorter • Cargo predictability is likely to decrease • Customer requirements are individual and they will change in time. • New solutions to transportation offering? Finnish Shipping requirements - A megatrend approach

  17. Industry Summary: Commerce Sector • Consumer trade will become more complex in the future. • Fierce competition in the industry. • Challenging equation: • Individual requirements + technology development = low cost? • Commerce industry is import intensive • Could this be utilized when maximizing the capacity usage? • Succees in commerce = superb business modes + operational excellence! Finnish Shipping requirements - A megatrend approach

  18. PART 2: Conclusions Finnish Shipping requirements - A megatrend approach

  19. Conclusions • Four crucial megatrends • Economic growth in emerging countries • Multipolarization • Speed-up • Environmental awareness • Cargo outlook • Metals mineral ↗ • Pulp & paper ↘ • Technology → • Chemical industry ↗? • Commerce → Finnish Shipping requirements - A megatrend approach

  20. Conclusions • Vessel requirements • Energy efficiency • Cost reduction • Agile, flexibility • Frequently changing customer requirements • More specific customer requirements within the industry • Business model? Finnish Shipping requirements - A megatrend approach

  21. Q&A? Finnish Shipping requirements - A megatrend approach

  22. BackupSlides Finnish Shipping requirements - A megatrend approach

  23. BackupSlides Finnish Shipping requirements - A megatrend approach

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