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Wind power in global energy scenarios

Wind power in global energy scenarios. 10.12.2012 Susanna Porkka, Mikko Wahlroos. Content. Regional potential and forecast for wind power IPCC scenario analysis The Energy [ R]evolution scenario.

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Wind power in global energy scenarios

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  1. Windpowerin globalenergyscenarios 10.12.2012 Susanna Porkka, Mikko Wahlroos

  2. Content • Regionalpotential and forecast for windpower • IPCC scenarioanalysis • The Energy [R]evolutionscenario

  3. Windpower is crucialpart for countries to fulfilltheircommitments in KyotoProtocol • Politicaldecisions and subsidieshavebeen playing a big part on howinterestingwindpowerhasbeen to investors.

  4. Windenergyprovides 2.5 % of worldselectricityneed. • It is possible for windenergy to generate 8 - 12 % of electricitybyyear 2020

  5. China, USA, Germany, Spain and Italyhave a 74 % share of allwindenergycapacity.

  6. Windspeedworldwide http://www.ceoe.udel.edu

  7. Muchunusedpotential in northern and southernAfrica as well as in southernLatin America and Australia • As well in manyotherparts of the world • ResearchdonebyUniversity of Delaware and Stanford University says that in theory maximal wind power in onshore and coastal ocean areas is over 80 TW • Far over global energy need • Climate is not affected by any foreseeable wind power in practical scale, for example 7.5 TW

  8. Global wind energy council

  9. Europesbiggestmarketshavestabilized, butespeciallyeastern Europe countrieshavemuchunusedpotential • Chinesewindpowermarketshavestabilized and Chinesemanufacturersareaimingabroad • Indian need for electricity is growing and itneedsways to providemoreenergy, windpowermarketsareexpected to rise • In USA short-term and unstablepolicy is windenergysbiggestproblem.

  10. Latin America • Economical and politicaldifferences in areas. • Brazil hasreallypromisingmarkets, goodpotential and muchhydropowerthatwindenergyworkswell with • Africahasmuchpotential in coasts and highlands. • There is otherproblemsmorecrucial to governmentsat the moment to concentrate on thatpotential. • Firstlargescaleenergyusing is going to bepropablywater, as in Egypt, orcoalbased. • Afterthatwindpower is seen to start playing itspart as well. • Egypthassomeplans on growingwindenergypart to 12 % byyear 2020 (politicalconditionshavebeenobstacle on reachingthatgoal)

  11. IPCC scenarioanalysis • IntergovernmentalPanel on ClimateChange (IPCC) publishedSpecial Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation (SRREN) in 2012, in whichtheyhad a globalenergyscenarioanalysis • Analysis includes 164 medium- to long-term scenarios from16 different global energy-economic and integrated assessment models • All the scenarios have been published during or after 2006 • Scenarios are divided in different categories according to CO2 concentrations • Scenarios range from 350 ppm to 1050 ppm of atmospheric CO2 concentration in 2100 • Analysis highlights following facts: • Importance of interactions and competition with other mitigation technologies • Evolution of energy demand more generally • RE deploymentlevels as whole and on individualbasis • Factorsthatmightinfluence the ability to meet the deployment levels • Cost analysis • Analysis also includes a more detailed review using 4 of the 164 scenarios as illustrative examples

  12. CO2 concentration in scenarios Source: Renewable Energy Sources and Climate ChangeMitigation, Special Report of the IPCC, 2012 http://srren.ipcc-wg3.de/report/IPCC_SRREN_Full_Report.pdf

  13. RE compared to annual CO2 emission in scenarios Source: Renewable Energy Sources and Climate ChangeMitigation, Special Report of the IPCC, 2012 http://srren.ipcc-wg3.de/report/IPCC_SRREN_Full_Report.pdf

  14. Share of windenergy in scenarios Source: Renewable Energy Sources and Climate ChangeMitigation, Special Report of the IPCC, 2012 http://srren.ipcc-wg3.de/report/IPCC_SRREN_Full_Report.pdf

  15. Fourin-depthscenarios • Four more aggregated data level and different illustrative energy and emission pathways • The scenarios differ in assumptions, mitigation goals and in the types of underlying models used • CO2 Concentration • RE cost and performance assumptions • Energy efficiency and demand • Overall GDP growth • IEA-WEO2009-Baseline • Typicalbaselinescenario, no substantial change in government policy, minimal to moderatefossilfuelcostincrease, no specific GHG emissions constraints • ReMIND-RECIPE • Emission reductionsunderfull ”where, when and what-flexibility”, perfectforesight: future changes in prices and technology developments known • MiniCAM-EMF22 • Availability of a wide range of energy supply options, including major RE options, nuclear power and both fossil energy and bioenergy equipped with CCS technology, possiblenegativeemissions • ER-2010 • Increase in fossil fuel costs and a price for carbon from 2010 onwards, fully exploit the large potential for energy efficiency, characterized by a very detailed technology breakdown for each sector

  16. Fourin-depthscenarios Source: Renewable Energy Sources and Climate ChangeMitigation, Special Report of the IPCC, 2012 http://srren.ipcc-wg3.de/report/IPCC_SRREN_Full_Report.pdf

  17. Market development Source: Renewable Energy Sources and Climate ChangeMitigation, Special Report of the IPCC, 2012 http://srren.ipcc-wg3.de/report/IPCC_SRREN_Full_Report.pdf

  18. Windpower in fourin-depthscenarios • Conflicts with manufacturing capacity and RE deployment growth • The IEA-WEO2009-Baseline scenario, for example, expects lower global deployment of wind power in 2020 than currently available manufacturing capacity,5 which could lead to overcapacity and lower market prices for wind turbines. Lower prices for wind would lead to greater deployment • High scenario for wind in ReMIND-RECIPE requires an annual production capacity of 175 GW by 2020, which would represent a four-fold increase in production capacity at a global level, Both the ER-2010 and MiniCAM-EMF22 scenarios require this production capacity about a decade later • This shows once more the problem of dealing with a very dynamic (and in this case policy-driven) sector using scenario analysis. • The highest global wind share occurs in the ReMIND-RECIPE scenario, with a 24% portion by 2030, a share that is reached in the ER-2010 scenario only by 2050 • In all three mitigation scenarios wind is expected to overtake hydropower in terms of global electricity supplyby2030 Source: Renewable Energy Sources and Climate ChangeMitigation, Special Report of the IPCC, 2012 http://srren.ipcc-wg3.de/report/IPCC_SRREN_Full_Report.pdf

  19. Supply Curves of Renewable electricity Potential - OECD Europe 2030 and 2050 Source: Renewable Energy Sources and Climate ChangeMitigation, Special Report of the IPCC, 2012 http://srren.ipcc-wg3.de/report/IPCC_SRREN_Full_Report.pdf

  20. Globaldecadalinvestments Source: Renewable Energy Sources and Climate ChangeMitigation, Special Report of the IPCC, 2012 http://srren.ipcc-wg3.de/report/IPCC_SRREN_Full_Report.pdf

  21. The Energy [R]evolution 2012 • The Energy [R]evolutionscenario is publishedbyGreenpeace International, EuropeanRenewable Energy Council (EREC), GlobalWind Energy Council (GWEC) • First ER published 2007, latestupdated version of ER published in 2012 • First ER in 2007 assumedinstalledwindcapacity to be 156 GW in the end of 2010, while the actualrealizedcapacity in the end of 2010 was 197 GW • Few main concepts in the Energy [R]evolution: • Implement clean, renewable solutions • Decentralise energy, 70 % of all generation is distributed and located close to load centres • Decouple growth from fossil fuel use and phase out nuclear power • Implementing smart and super grids • Lessneed for baseloadplants • By 2050 the average per capita emission 0.5 and 1tonne of CO2 • ER12 suggests that renewable energy would pass 30% of the global energy supply just after 2020. • IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2011 current policies scenario used as reference scenario

  22. Assumed average growth rates and annual market volumes by RE techologies Source: energy [r]evolutionA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK, Greenpeace international & EREC & GWEC, 2012, http://www.greenpeace.org/international/Global/international/publications/climate/2012/Energy%20Revolution%202012/ER2012.pdf

  23. Windpower and RE costassumptions Source: energy [r]evolutionA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK, Greenpeace international & EREC & GWEC, 2012, http://www.greenpeace.org/international/Global/international/publications/climate/2012/Energy%20Revolution%202012/ER2012.pdf

  24. Short termprognosisvsrealmarketdevelopment Source: energy [r]evolutionA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK, Greenpeace international & EREC & GWEC, 2012, http://www.greenpeace.org/international/Global/international/publications/climate/2012/Energy%20Revolution%202012/ER2012.pdf

  25. Long termmarketprojects Source: energy [r]evolutionA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK, Greenpeace international & EREC & GWEC, 2012, http://www.greenpeace.org/international/Global/international/publications/climate/2012/Energy%20Revolution%202012/ER2012.pdf

  26. Employment in energysector Source: energy [r]evolutionA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK, Greenpeace international & EREC & GWEC, 2012, http://www.greenpeace.org/international/Global/international/publications/climate/2012/Energy%20Revolution%202012/ER2012.pdf

  27. Arethe mostambitiousglobalenergyscenariospossible? Source: Renewable Energy Sources and Climate ChangeMitigation, Special Report of the IPCC, 2012 http://srren.ipcc-wg3.de/report/IPCC_SRREN_Full_Report.pdf

  28. Thankyou for yourattention! Questions?

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