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EBFM and Modelling

EBFM and Modelling. Beth Fulton CSIRO Marine Research. Australian Modelling Successes . Successes and failures with all types (just tools) single species (linked) multispecies (target, bycatch, habitat). Multispecies Model Success. Sainsbury on Northwest Shelf

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EBFM and Modelling

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  1. EBFM and Modelling Beth Fulton CSIRO Marine Research

  2. Australian Modelling Successes • Successes and failures with all types (just tools) • single species (linked) • multispecies (target, bycatch, habitat) EBFM and Modelling

  3. Multispecies Model Success • Sainsbury on Northwest Shelf • alternative hypotheses (identified time to reduce uncertainty) • evaluated alternative long & short term strategies (& costs) EBFM and Modelling

  4. Australian Modelling Successes • Successes and failures with all types (just tools) • single species (linked) • multispecies (target, bycatch, habitat) • Ecopath (fisheries-marine mammal overlap) • ecosystem models (biophysical, multi-sector; Atlantis, InVitro) EBFM and Modelling

  5. Management Strategy Evaluation • Unifying factor in success = Management Strategy Evaluation • Process = consultative • science, management and industry • Models (single species, multispecies, ecosystem) EBFM and Modelling

  6. Management Strategy Evaluation • Exploitation • Observation • Biophysical • Management EBFM and Modelling

  7. Management Strategy Evaluation • Exploitation • Observation • Biophysical • Management EBFM and Modelling

  8. Strategy • A B C D E • Indicator • I II III IV MSE Reporting EBFM and Modelling

  9. MSE Ecosystem Model - Atlantis • Biological and physical • main processes and groups thought important in temperate marine ecosystems EBFM and Modelling

  10. 0 50 150 250 750+ Pelagic Epibenthic Sediment MSE Ecosystem Model - Atlantis • Within each cell have ecology (51 functional groups/species) and fisheries (32 fleets) EBFM and Modelling

  11. MSE Ecosystem Model - Atlantis • Biological and physical • main processes and groups thought important in temperate marine ecosystems • Anthropogenic • fishing (including discarding, habitat modification etc) • other (changing nutrient loads, temperature profiles) • Fleet dynamics and management • multiple fleets (ports, displacement, targeting, gear) • management (closures, effort control, quotas, mitigation, changing gear, changing practices) • Monitoring and assessment • data from surveys and fisheries records (with error) • common assessment models and index estimation EBFM and Modelling

  12. EEZ Claimable shelf Previous MSE Ongoing MSE MSE Locations and Lessons • Modelling lessons • scales/focus • formulations • Ecological indicators • simpler = better • Data/monitoring gaps shown • Value of qualitative info • Trade-offs always involved • highlights issues missed by assessments • Adds value to models EBFM and Modelling

  13. Issues For Discussion • Examples of models in EBFM • Changes in governance/policy/administration required • Models we’ve overlooked (e.g. from other fields) • New models/data required • functional responses, interactions etc • handling uncertainty • fitting to data, making sure models and questions match EBFM and Modelling

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