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Peter Schultz, Ph.D. Associate Director for Science Integration

CLIVAR and the U.S. Climate Change Science Program U.S. CLIVAR Summit Keystone, Colorado August 15, 2005. Peter Schultz, Ph.D. Associate Director for Science Integration Climate Change Science Program Office. CLIVAR - CCSP LINKAGE. CCSP is counting on U.S. CLIVAR!

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Peter Schultz, Ph.D. Associate Director for Science Integration

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  1. CLIVAR and the U.S.Climate Change Science Program U.S. CLIVAR SummitKeystone, ColoradoAugust 15, 2005 Peter Schultz, Ph.D. Associate Director for Science Integration Climate Change Science Program Office Science Advisory Board Public Session

  2. CLIVAR - CCSP LINKAGE • CCSP is counting on U.S. CLIVAR! • Agencies that fund U.S. CLIVAR are accountable to CCSP Milestones, Products, and Payoffs. • Agency priorities are linked to CCSP priorities. • CCSP provides a vital framework for CLIVAR U.S. CLIVAR Summit – August 15, 2005

  3. CCSP Background • U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP): 1990 • Climate Change Research Initiative (CCRI): 2001 • Climate Change Science Program (CCSP): 2002 CCSP encompasses CCRI and USGCRP • Coordinates & integrates climate research • Composed of 13 Departments / Agencies • ~$2B/year U.S. CLIVAR Summit – August 15, 2005

  4. CCSP Strategic Plan Released: July 2003 Vision: A nation and the global community empowered with the science-based knowledge to manage the risks and opportunities of change in the climate and related environmental systems. www.climatescience.gov U.S. CLIVAR Summit – August 15, 2005

  5. CCSP Internal Structure CCSP Interagency Committee Director: Asst. Sec. of Commerce for Oceans & Atmosphere CCSP Office Atm. Comp. Carbon Cycle Climate Var. & Change Interagency Working Groups Communications Ecosystems HD / HCR International LULCC Water Cycle Observations U.S. CLIVAR Summit – August 15, 2005

  6. CCSP Goals CCSP GOALS 1. Improve Knowledge of Climate and Environment 2. Improve Quantification of Forces Driving Changes to Climate 3. Reduce Uncertainty in Projections of Future Climate Changes 4. Understand Sensitivity & Adaptability of Natural & Manmade Ecosystems 5. Explore Uses and Limits of Managing Risks and Opportunities • RELEVANCE TO CLIVAR • HIGH [Phenom., Obs., & Synth. Panel; Process Studies & Model Improve. Panel] • MOD.–HIGH • HIGH [Process Studies & Model Improve. Panel; Predictabil., Predict., & Applicat. Panel ] • LOW • MOD.-HIGH [Predictabil., Predict., & Applicat. Panel ] U.S. CLIVAR Summit – August 15, 2005

  7. RELEVANT CCSP ELEMENTS CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE Q 4.1. To what extent can uncertainties in model projections due to climate system feedbacks be reduced? Milestones, Products, and Payoffs include: - Refined estimates of feedback processes (and climate sensitivity) and their representation in models, leading to a narrowing of climate model projections (2-4+ yrs) - Improved climate data products, including, e.g., assimilation and reanalysis of Earth system data from satellites and in situ for model development and testing; high-res. regional data [2-4+ yrs] - Increased understanding of the causes of climate var. & change [2-4+ yrs] - Targeted paleoclimate time series [2-4+ yrs] - Improved effectiveness of observing systems based in part on model guidance [2-4+ yrs] U.S. CLIVAR Summit – August 15, 2005

  8. RELEVANT CCSP ELEMENTS CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE (cont.) Q 4.2. How can predictions and projections of climate be improved, and what are limits of predictability? Milestones, Products, and Payoffs include: - Improved probability forecasts of regional manifestations of seasonal climate anomalies [<2 yrs and beyond] - Improved high-res, 3-D ocean circulation models [2-4+ yrs] - Improvements in the representation of major modes of climate variability in climate predictions and projections [>4 yrs] - An assessment of potential predictability beyond ENSO (e.g., assoc. with PDV, NAO, annular modes, tropical Atl. and Indian Oc. [>4 yrs] - Estimates of limits of predictability of variability & change forced by human activities [>4 yrs] U.S. CLIVAR Summit – August 15, 2005

  9. RELEVANT CCSP ELEMENTS CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE (cont.) Q 4.3. What is the likelihood of abrupt changes in the climate system? Milestones, Products, and Payoffs include: Improved understanding of thresholds and nonlinearities in the climate system, especially for coupled atm-oc, thermocline and deepwater, hydrology,… [>4 yrs] Databases of drought/megadrought in N. America [2-4 yrs] Online database of annual-to-decadal resolution time series and maps of Arctic climate variability over the past 2,000 years [2-4 yrs] Probabilistic estimates of future risks of abrupt global and regional climate-induced changes, including the collapse of the THC, persistent ENSO conditions, and abrupt sea level rise [ 2-4+ yrs] U.S. CLIVAR Summit – August 15, 2005

  10. RELEVANT CCSP ELEMENTS CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE (cont.) Q 4.4. How are extreme events related to climate variability and change? Milestones, Products, and Payoffs include: - Improved obs and model databases to detect and analyze trends in extreme events [2-4+ yrs] - Analysis of the relationships between extreme events and natural climate variations and modes [2-4+ yrs] - Assessment of potential predictability and forecasts of probabilities of extreme events [ 2-4+ yrs] - Probabilistic estimates of possible future changes in frequencies, intensities, and geog. distributions of extreme events [ 2-4+ yrs] U.S. CLIVAR Summit – August 15, 2005

  11. RELEVANT CCSP ELEMENTS CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE (cont.) Q 4.5. How can information on climate var. & change be most efficiently developed and integrated with non-climatic knowledge, and communicated to serve society? Milestones, Products, and Payoffs include: - Establishment of research teams involving climate and social scientists and stakeholders to create focused, user-responsive partnerships [<2 yrs and beyond] - Assessment of the adequacy of existing operational climate monitoring networks to provide regional decision support [ 2-4 yrs] - Development of high-resolution climate products based on obs, paleo data, and climate forecasts [2-4+ yrs] - Documented regional impacts of climate var., and development of reports on the potential implications of projected changes [> 4yrs] U.S. CLIVAR Summit – August 15, 2005

  12. RELEVANT CCSP ELEMENTS WATER CYCLE Q 5.1. What are the mechanisms and processes responsible for the maintenance and variability of the water cycle? Trends? Causes of trends? Q 5.2. How do feedback processes control interactions between the global water cycle and other parts of the climate system? Q 5.3. What are the key uncertainties in S-I predictions and long-term projections of water cycle variables, and what model improvements are needed? U.S. CLIVAR Summit – August 15, 2005

  13. RELEVANT CCSP ELEMENTS WATER CYCLE (cont.) Q 5.4. What are the consequences of water cycle variability and change to societies and ecosystems? Q 5.5. How can global water cycle information be used to inform decision processes in the context of changing water resource conditions and policies? ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION Q 3.5: What are the couplings and feedback mechanisms among climate change, air pollution, and ozone layer depletion…? U.S. CLIVAR Summit – August 15, 2005

  14. RELEVANT CCSP ELEMENTS MODELING Goal 1. Improve the scientific basis of climate and impacts models. Goal 2. Provide the infrastructure and capacity necessary to support a scientifically rigorous and responsive U.S. climate modeling activity. Goal 3. Coordinate and accelerate climate modeling activities and provide relevant decision support information on a timely basis. U.S. CLIVAR Summit – August 15, 2005

  15. RELEVANT CCSP ELEMENTS OBSERVATIONS Goal 1. Design, develop, deploy, integrate, and sustain observation components into a comprehensive system. Goal 2. Accelerate the development and deployment of observing and monitoring elements needed for decision support. Goal 3. Provide stewardship of the observing system. Goal 4. Integrate modeling activities with the observing system. Goal 5. Foster international cooperation to develop a complete global observing system. Manage the observing system with an effective interagency structure. U.S. CLIVAR Summit – August 15, 2005

  16. RELEVANT CCSP ELEMENTS OTHER KEY CCSP RESEARCH ELEMENT LINKAGES: - CARBON CYCLE - LAND USE / LAND COVER CHANGE - ECOSYSTEMS - HUMAN CONTRIBUTIONS AND RESPONSES U.S. CLIVAR Summit – August 15, 2005

  17. Synthesis & Assessment Products • 21 CCSP SYNTHESIS AND ASSESSMENT PRODUCTS • Current evaluations of the science foundationthat can be used for informing public debate, policy, and operational decisions, and for setting future direction and priorities of the program • CLIVAR-Relevant S&A Products • 1.1 Temperature trends • 1.2 Past Arctic climate variability and change • 1.3 Re-analyses of historical climate data. Implications for attribution • 3.1 Climate models and their uses and limitations • 3.2 Climate projections • 3.3 Climate extremes • 3.4 Risks of abrupt climate change • 5.1 Uses and limitations of climate information in decision support • 5.2 Characterizing scientific uncertainty to inform decisionmaking • 5.3 Decision support using S-I forecasts and observational data U.S. CLIVAR Summit – August 15, 2005

  18. Synthesis & Assessment Products • CONCLUSIONS • It is in U.S. CLIVAR’s self-interest to account for relevant CCSP research elements in its planning. • CCSP encourages movement toward providing capabilities, products, and information to inform stakeholders and decision-makers. • Think carefully about demonstrating progress (via metrics) toward CCSP objectives. • Strong scientific leadership by CLIVAR (scientists and agencies) is required. • A robust partnership between CCSP and CLIVAR may yield benefits for both. U.S. CLIVAR Summit – August 15, 2005

  19. Synthesis & Assessment Products U.S. CLIVAR Summit – August 15, 2005

  20. U.S. CLIVAR Summit – August 15, 2005

  21. U.S. CLIVAR Summit – August 15, 2005

  22. U.S. CLIVAR Summit – August 15, 2005

  23. CCSP Workshop • Location: Marriott Crystal Gateway, Arlington, VA • Purpose: To facilitate exchange of ideas among the government, academic, international, NGO, and stakeholder groups participating in the CCSP process. • Topics: Discussions will include the scientific basis and the use of the CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Products in addressing CCSP’s three decision support goals: • Prepare scientific syntheses and assessments (national and international) • Develop and illustrate adaptive management and planning capabilities. • Develop and evaluate methods to support climate change policy inquiries • Registration: http://www.climatescience.gov/workshop2005/ U.S. CLIVAR Summit – August 15, 2005

  24. Synthesis & Assessment Products U.S. CLIVAR reorganization aligns well with CCSP Phenomenology, Observations, and Synthesis Panel  (POS) – Goal 1 Process Studies and Model Improvement Panel (PSMI) – Goals 1 & 3 Predictability, Prediction, & Applications Interface Panel (PPAI) – Goals 3 & 5 U.S. CLIVAR Summit – August 15, 2005

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