Dr. Peter Schultz, CCSP Office

1. U.S. Climate Change Science Program / Global Change Research ProgramOpportunities and Options for the Futureand Illustrations of USGS’ Role Dr. Peter Schultz, CCSP Office 1

2. The Need for a StrongClimate Science Program • Societal risks & opportunities posed by climate are enormous • Decisions must be informed by best possible science; value of informing decisions much greater than initial investments in the science • Climate change: magnitude, timing, vulnerability, impacts, and response options still relatively uncertain, particularly at state & local scale • Need national program to coordinate and manage science investments, disseminate their results, and facilitate their use • CCSP/USGCRP adds significant integrative value to thirteen participating agencies to achieve results that no single agency could attain. • Mandated by the Global Change Research Act of 1990

3. Context Early years of USGCRP focused on improving understanding of processes, trends, causes, and preliminary projectionsBroadening context: - Energy security - Economic security - National security - Human health - Environmental sustainability

4. The Winds of Change • Administration change • EOP; departmental planning • New regulation; ESA interpretation; etc. • Congressional action • Global Change Research Act reauthorization bill • Climate Service bill • Cap and trade bills (including adaptation provisions) • Local to international action & demand • Public awareness • The environment itself • Carbon trading / offsets / accounting • Corporate opportunities • Evolving scientific capability

5. CCSP Assessments • All 21 have been released. • 4.1, 4.3, 4.4, 4.6, 4.7, 5.1, and 5.3 have significant sections on adaptation • Unified Synthesis Product: under development---includes regional and sectoral vulnerabilities, impacts, and adaptation approaches See full color fact sheets at www.climatescience.gov

6. Some of these listening sessions are convened by CCSP (de novo), but most are convened in conjunction with pre-existing meetings. SYRACUSE, NY (CCSPO) Date: Oct. 15 Lead: Emily Cloyd CHICAGO, IL (DOT) PARTNER Av. Climate Res. Grp. Adv. Bd. Date: Oct. 22-23, 2008 Lead: Linda Lawson AMES, IA (CCSPO) Corn Grower’s Assoc. Date: Sep. 10 Lead: Schultz WASHINGTON, DC (DOT) NRC TRB Meeting Date: Jan. 11-15, 2009 Lead: Linda Lawson RENO, NV (USDA) Society of Amer. Foresters Date: Nov 2008 Lead: Bill Hohenstein BOULDER, CO Date: TBD Lead: NSF/NOAA (tentative) WASHINGTON, DC NGO Roundtable Date: Oct 2007 Lead: CCSPO WASHINGTON, DC Ozone Research Date: July 2007 Lead: Ravishankara WASHINGTON, DC Climate Professionals Roundtable Date: Oct 6, 2008 Lead: CCSPO SAN FRANCISCO, CA AGU Meeting December 2008 Lead: Kaye BOULDER, CO (CCSPO) Western Water Managers Date: March 2008 Lead: Cloyd PHOENIX, AZ AMS Meeting Date: Jan 11-15, 2009 Lead: TBD CAROLINAS (NOAA) Lead: Margaret Davidson …consult with actual and potential users of the results of the Program to ensure that such results are useful in developing national and international policy responses to global change. GCRA, 1990. SAN DIEGO, CA (HHS); APHA Annual Mtg. Date: October 29, 2008 Leads: Allen Dearry Gulf Coast April 2009 Biloxi, MS ALASKA (USGS/EPA) Date: Nov 2008 Lead: Armstrong/Scheraga Conference on Ecosystem Services (ACES) Dec. 8-11, 2008 Naples, FL HAWAII; NOAA’s PACIS Center Date: August 2008 Lead: Eileen Shea Other relevant non-CCSP sessions include: U. Mich., May ’07; CIRUN, Oct ’07; NOAA/Asheville, Nov ’07; NCSE, Jan ’08; UCAR, Oct ‘08

7. A revolution in the approach to the science is being recommended: NRC, 2009: Restructuring Federal Climate Research to Meet the Challenges of Climate Change. NRC, 2009: Informing Decisions in a Changing Climate. Increasing focus on science to support mitigation and adaptation, while bolstering approaches to lynchpin basic science questions

8. The societal costs and implications of unanswered scientific questions are enormous, e.g.: • What has happened and what will happen? • Rate of future sea level rise (and impacts)? • Intensity of Atlantic hurricanes? • Regional climate in the next season, decade, and century? • “Tipping points” for society and ecosystems? • What do these changes mean? • Effects of ocean acidification on marine ecosystems / fisheries? • Overlay on existing stressors affecting national security, health, etc.? • Regional/sectoral costs of unabated climate change? • What can be done about it? • Costs & benefits of response strategies? • Consequences of carbon sequestration? • Effectiveness? • Better infuse science into decision-making? (e.g., coping with uncertainty) • Evolution of science to meet changing needs? (end-to-end engagement)

9. Three quick examples of USGS’ contributions to meeting national needs. First, water availability… • With: • NOAA • USDA • USACE • NASA • etc.

10. Second, ecological change… (e.g., National Phenological Network, National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center, Landsat, etc.) • With: • NASA • NSF • DOE • NOAA • EPA • USDA • SI • etc.

11. Third, mitigation strategies… (e.g., carbon sequestration potential---CCTP) • With: • DOE • EPA • USDA • NSF • DOT • etc.