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WaterSim Arizona

In the year 2050, water supply and demand in Arizona need to be managed to ensure a sustainable region. This simulation challenges you to make water policy choices, represent stakeholder groups, and manage water supply through 2050.

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WaterSim Arizona

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  1. WaterSim Arizona Companion Presentation Decision Center for a Desert City Arizona State University asu.dcdc.edu arizona.watersim.org

  2. Challenge: The year is 2050 Water supplyand demand need to be managed to provide enough water to maintain a sustainable region. • This includes water for: • Agricultural production • River habitats • Human health and comfort • Economic opportunity Climatic conditions have remained fairly constant since 2015, but population growth has continued and in 2050, water demand exceeds supply.

  3. Now You’re in Charge You will: • Represent a stakeholder group. • Make water policy choices. • Manage water supply through 2050.

  4. Stakeholder Definition: A person or group with an interest or concern in an enterprise Question: What are some of the stakeholders involved in water management in this part of Arizona?

  5. Stakeholder Profile: Business/Industry Key points: • As a business owner, you use water for manufacturing products and delivering services. • Population growth and economic development can bring a skilled workforce and larger market for your products and services. Concerns: • Population growth and economic development can also create competition for water. Discussion: • What industries are located in your region?

  6. Stakeholder Profile: Environmentalist/Conservationist Key points: • As an environmentalist, water in rivers and local water bodies is important for the health of ecosystems (plants and animals). • Non-governmental organizations can be involved in projects working to preserve local waters. • Sustainable agriculture includes having agricultural goods produced close to home. Concerns: • Currently, little water is dedicated to streams, rivers, and associated habitat areas in the state of Arizona. Some water could be used/reserved for these purposes. Discussion: • Are there any projects to preserve a local body of water taking place in your region? • Are these projects led by individuals, government, or non-governmental organizations? Fossil Creek in Coconino National Forest Gila River in Graham County, AZ

  7. Stakeholder Profile: Farmer/Agriculture Key points: • Farmers use water to grow crops to sell and make a living. • Farming uses a large amount of water per acre in the desert but produces low profit margins, so water must remain cheap for agriculture to thrive. If all water was sold to the highest bidder, farmers would go out of business. • A growing urban population increases the demand for water, which competes with agricultural uses of water. Concerns: • Losing land to population growth and urbanization. • Transfer of water rights to cities and industries that can pay more for water than farmers. • Reduced water supply due to drought and groundwater overdraft. • Water conservation policies that might reduce the availability of water to farmers or increase the cost of water for farmers. Discussion: • Where is the closest farm to your school? Where does its water come from?

  8. Stakeholder Profile:Native American Tribes Key Perspectives: • In the past, tribes were often left out of water negotiations and must fight to secure their water rights and access to water. • Water needs to be clean, and used to support everyday water needs, as well as agriculture, and cultural uses. Native Americans view water as necessary for quality of life and economic development, but also as sacred. • Tribes want to protect the priority of their water rights since they were the first peoples of Arizona. Concerns: • While you may have the water rights you need, you may not have the money or infrastructure to get water supplies to the homes and businesses in your communities. • People outside of your community may not understand the ways in which you use water. Discussion: • Are there any conversations about water rights currently taking place in your community or region?

  9. Stakeholder Profile:Residents Key Perspectives: • You need water for everyday uses, such as bathing and cleaning, cooking and drinks, irrigating lawns and plants, maintaining swimming pools, and other home uses. • You elect officials who manage the water issues in your area. • Resident priorities on how to use water may differ depending on the person and their personal background, ideals, and how they use water on a daily basis. Concerns: • Population growth and urbanization may increase competition for water. • Decreasing urban water use could require residents at a certain point to change their water use habits, such as removing lawns or reducing car washes, or taking shorter or fewer showers. Discussion: • How do you use water as a resident of your community?

  10. Stakeholder Profile: Water Manager for Cities &Towns Key points: • Manage water for residents – • Water used in the home, bathing and cleaning, cooking and drinks, irrigating lawns and plants, maintaining swimming pools • Manage water for businesses – • Water used by businesses to produce products and deliver services Concerns: • Costs of water • Regulations on water use and landscaping • Drought and growth placing demands/stress on water supplies • Strategies for saving/conserving water • Politics in the community served Discussion: • What agency manages water in your community? • How many people live in your community? • What are some of the businesses?

  11. Part 1: Stakeholders and Systems -Step 1- Each group represents the interests of a stakeholder in our regional water management system. Your job is to maximize the water allocation for your group. As a group: • Answer questions 1-8. • Brainstorm up to five goals for water management.

  12. Part 1: Stakeholders and Systems -Step 2- • Review the policy choices on WaterSim Arizona. • The different policy choices affect water sources (supply) and water consumers (demand). • Discuss the importance of each policy for your group. • Rank the policies in order of importance, from highest to lowest priority.

  13. WaterSim Arizona Regions

  14. WaterSim Arizona: Southeast Region WaterSim AZ screenshot place holder

  15. WaterSim Arizona: North Region

  16. WaterSim Arizona: Central North Region

  17. WaterSim Arizona: West Region

  18. WaterSim Arizona: Central South Region

  19. Sustainability Indicators Economy • This indicator shows how well the overall economy of your region does in the future, based on water resources. Environment • This indicator will tell you how well the habitats and ecosystems along bodies of water are being managed. Groundwater • This indicator describes how sustainable groundwater reserves are in 2050.

  20. Efficiency of Water Use Indicators Ideal efficiency is in the green range.

  21. Flow Chart • See the flow of water from its sources (water supply) to consumers (demand). • The size of the bar indicates how much water is flowing. • Thicker line = more water • Thinner line = less water • Red blocks on the consumer side show a deficit. • A deficit means that some of the demand is NOT being met in 2050.

  22. WaterSim Arizona Policy Choices • Water Source Availability • Choose the amount of surface water, groundwater, and reclaimed water you want to make available for use • Change in Water Use Efficiency • Choose how much more efficient you think these water consumers should be. • More efficient = less water consumed • Projected Population Growth • Choose how much growth in population you wish to see in your region. • To learn more, click on the icon.

  23. Assessment • Describes the sustainability of each of the indicators. • The icons match the indicators icons. • The colors corresponds to the “health” of the indicator.

  24. Part 1: Stakeholders and Systems • Considering the policy choices and indicators that are most important to your stakeholder, run WaterSim scenarios. • Change the policies until the indicators important for your stakeholder are mostly positive. • Record your results. • Compare to the base scenario.

  25. Part 1: Stakeholders and Systems Summary • What policy choices did you make and why? • What were your outcomes? Were they positive or negative for your group? • How did your choices affect other stakeholder groups?

  26. Part 2: Collaborative Water Management -Step 1- In this section: • Make groups with at least one of each stakeholder represented. • Present the policy choices from your previous groups. • Discuss trade-offs. • Make new goals for water management.

  27. Part 2: Collaborative Water Management Defining trade-offs Trade-off: the action of exchanging one thing for another or balancing two or more interests, especially to achieve a compromise Example: using more surface water will increase water available for cities & towns use, but it will hurt the environmental indicator, because surface water will go to other uses instead of river habitats.

  28. Part 2: Collaborative Water Management Considering your trade-offs: • Make 5 new goals for water management. • Rank the policy choices from most important to least important.

  29. Part 2: Collaborative Water Management -Step 2- • Run the model until the sustainability indicators are the most positive. • Record your results. • Compare to the base scenario. • Compare to each stakeholder’s previous scenario.

  30. Part 2: Collaborative Water Management Summary • How did you combine your goals as a group? What were your priorities? • Were your outcomes positive or negative? • What trade-offs did you identify?

  31. Part 3: Long Term Drought • Arizona has experienced drought conditions since 2000. • By 2020, the drought became so severe that there were significant impacts on surface water availability. • The drought continued for another 30 years, lasting until 2050.

  32. Part 3: Long Term Drought • Using the settings from your Part 2 scenario: • Click on “Drought” tab. • Choose “severe” drought. • Run model.

  33. Part 3: Long Term Drought • Review the results. • What happened to your indicators? • Does your water management plan need to change? • How will you change your policy choices to manage the drought?

  34. Part 3: Long Term Drought • Develop a final sustainable water management plan in the face of long term drought. • Run your policy choices through WaterSim. • Come to a consensus with your team. • Record your results.

  35. WaterSim Summary: Drought Water Management Plan • What were the effects of drought on your collaborative water management plan? • How did you change your policies to manage the effects of drought? • What was the final status of your indicators? • Do you think your final water management plan is sustainable? Why or why not?

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