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The Triple Challenges for Christians: Climate Change, Energy Security, and Cost - A Route to a Fair and Sustainable Futu

This presentation explores the triple challenges faced by Christians in relation to climate change, energy security, and cost. It delves into the concept of dominion and responsible stewardship of the Earth, prompting reflection on the consequences of our actions. The speaker also discusses ways to reduce energy demand, renewable energy options, and the importance of addressing inequality in resource consumption.

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The Triple Challenges for Christians: Climate Change, Energy Security, and Cost - A Route to a Fair and Sustainable Futu

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  1. Churches Together in Brundall February 29th 2012 The Triple Challenges for Christians of Climate Change, Energy Security and Cost - a Route to a Fair and Sustainable Future? Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal Keith Tovey (杜伟贤)M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv Reader Emeritus: University of East Anglia

  2. The Triple Challenges for Christians of Climate Change, Energy Security and Cost - a Route to a Fair and Sustainable Future? Genesis 1:26 “ ......God made man to have dominion of the earth” Some versions “ ....... God made man ruler over the earth” ? Dominion ? Rule ?? Jesus taught by challenging people to think and ponder Matthew: 19:21 - the parable of the Rich Man “.... Go and sell all you have ..........” “......... It is harder for a rich person to enter the Kingdom of God than for a camel to go through the eye of a needle” A good teacher leaves the audience with something to ponder not to tell his students what they should do. Mark 12:17. “Render unto Caesar the things that are Caesar’s and to God the things that are God’s “ • demonstrates joined up thinking prompts us to think of the consequence of our actions. • In Bhuddism the Pali Canon urges believers in that faith to think about the consequences of their actions

  3. The Triple Challenges for Christians of Climate Change, Energy Security and Cost - a Route to a Fair and Sustainable Future Each person in the UK is continuously using 5kW resulting in the emission of 9 tonnes per annum. In America twice as much energy is consumed Developed Countries constitute just over 10% of World’s Population >>Consume over 50% of energy and other resources Is this fair? 20% of population consume < 5% of resources and the majority in this group do not have access to clean drinking water Is this fair? What can we do about it? – it seems like an impossible task • A Brief Resume of Climate Change and Overview of Energy Demand • Energy Security Issues – particularly for the UK • Reducing Demand through Awareness and good Management • Renewable Energy Options for a Sustainable Future • Conclusions and Reflections

  4. Increasing Occurrence of Drought 4

  5. Increasing Occurrence of Flood 5

  6. Climate Change: Changes in the Artic 1979 - 2003 Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region NASA satellite imagery الصيف الجليد في القطبالشمالي تغطية المنطقة القطبيه ناسا الصور الفضاءيه 2003 1979 تغير المناخاثار على الجليديه القطبيه كاب 1979 - 2003 • 20% reduction in 24 years • 20 ٪تخفيض في 24 سنوات 6 6 Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html

  7. Is Global Warming natural or man-made? • Natural causes • Earth’s Orbit • Sunspot Activity • Volcanic Eruptions • Etc. • Reasonable agreement up to ~ 1960 Man-made causes do not show particularly good agreement in early part of period. BUT including both man- made and natural gives good agreement

  8. Global Surface Temperatures • In 2010 we had one of the warmest ever January – February periods. • Some people say surely it was coldest for 30 years • But why do people not account for the record breaking high temperatures in the tropics, Australia etc? • 5th Warmest for January

  9. Temperature variations in East Anglia Temperature rise in East Anglia over last 50 years is unequivocal • Winter: October – March: • Summer: April to September • Compared to 1960 – in 2010, • 13.1% less heating needed • And 106% more cooling. 2010 was one a particularly warm year despite cold spells in Europe in January and December NASA says it tied as being warmest www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/.../HQ_11-014_Warmest_Year.htm

  10. What is the magnitude of the CO2 problem? How does UK compare with other countries? Why do some countries emit more CO2 than others? France UK Per capita Carbon Emissions 10

  11. Impact of Electricity Generation on Carbon Emissions. • Approximate Carbon Emission factors during electricity generation including fuel extraction, fabrication and transport. • Transmission/Distribution losses in UK ~ 8-8.5% • In India ~ 20 – 25%

  12. Carbon Emissions and Electricity UK France 12

  13. r Electricity Generation i n selected Countries 13

  14. Energy Security is a potentially critical issue for the UK Import Gap On 7th/8th December 2010: UK Production was only 39%: 12% from storage and 49% from imports Gas Production and Demand in UK Prices have become much more volatile since UK is no longer self sufficient in gas.

  15. Variation in Wholesale and Retail Electriity Prices In Real Terms, Domestic Electricity Prices have only recently returned to 1981 levels Matthew Brown and Ben Farey (Bloomberg) 2012-02-23 06:24:37.12 GMT Traders in U.K. natural gas are grappling with the most changeable prices in more than two years U.K. day-ahead gas jumped to 101.5 pence a therm on Feb. 7, from 64.5 pence on Feb. 2. 6th Feb 2012 08:42 GMT Gazprom Expects Gap Between EU Gas Requests this week By Anna Shiryaevskaya Russia’s natural-gas export monopoly, said it expects a gap between requests from European customers and the amount it can supply during the cold snap. Gazprom is supplying at the maximum capacity. In recent years, electricity retail prices have varied much less than wholesale prices and have also risen less. 15

  16. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods 19 October 2011 Last updated at 16:35 Longannet carbon capture scheme scrapped Plans for the UK's first carbon capture project at the Longannet power station in Fife costing £1bn have been scrapped, the energy secretary has confirmed. Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after 2020. ? Carbon sequestration either by burying it or using methanolisation to create a new transport fuel will not be available at scale required until mid 2020s so cannot help short term. * Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011

  17. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable 1.5MW Turbine At peak output provides sufficient electricity for 3000 homes On average has provided electricity for 700 – 850 homes depending on year Future prices from * Renewable Energy Review – 9th May 2011 Climate Change Committee

  18. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Climate Change Committee (9th May 2011) see offshore wind as being very expensive and recommends reducing planned expansion by 3 GW and increasing onshore wind by same amount Scroby Sands has a Load factor of 28.8% - 30% but nevertheless produced sufficient electricity on average for 2/3rds of demand of houses in Norwich. At Peak time sufficient for all houses in Norwich and Ipswich

  19. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Micro Hydro Scheme operating on Siphon Principle installed at Itteringham Mill, Norfolk. Rated capacity 5.5 kW Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified

  20. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Climate Change Report suggests that 1.6 TWh (0.4%) might be achieved by 2020 which is equivalent to ~ 2.0 GW. Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified

  21. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable • Transport Fuels: • Biodiesel? • Bioethanol? • Compressed gas from • methane from waste. To provide 5% of UK electricity needs will require an area the size of Norfolk and Suffolk devoted solely to biomass Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified

  22. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified

  23. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified

  24. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Severn Barrage/ Mersey Barrages have been considered frequently e.g. pre war – 1970s, 2009 Severn Barrage could provide 5-8% of UK electricity needs In Orkney – Churchill Barriers Output ~80 000 GWh per annum - Sufficient for 13500 houses in Orkney but there are only 4000 in Orkney. Controversy in bringing cables south. Would save 40000 tonnes of CO2 Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified

  25. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified

  26. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Demonstrates importance of on shore wind for next decade or so Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified

  27. Our Choices: They are difficult • Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass?. • Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 10 - 20 years. • [very expensive or technically immature or both] • If our answer is NO • Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power ? • Are we happy with this and the other attendant risks? • If our answer is NO • Do we want to return to using coal? • then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly • unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years UNLIKELY – confirmed by Climate Change Committee • [9th May 2011] If our answer to coal is NO Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>

  28. Our Choices: They are difficult • If our answer is YES • By 2020 • we will be dependent on GAS • for around 70% of our heating and electricity • imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria • Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>> • If not: • We need even more substantial cuts in energy use. • Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field? Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables? Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises. We must take a coherent integrated approach in our decision making – not merely be against one technology or another

  29. Our looming over-dependence on gas for electricity generation • 1 new nuclear station completed each year after 2020. • 1 new coal station fitted with CCS each year after 2020 • 1 million homes fitted with PV each year from 2020 - 40% of homes fitted by 2030 • 19 GW of onshore wind by 2030 cf 4 GW now Imported Gas Offshore Wind UK Gas Onshore Wind Oil Other Renewables Existing Coal New Coal Existing Nuclear New Nuclear Data for modelling derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011) - allowing for significant deployment of electric vehicles and heat pumps by 2030.

  30. Raising Awareness On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year. How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like? 5 hot air balloons per person per year. "Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little." Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)

  31. Raising Awareness At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai 上海徐汇区高第一小学 • A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost ~ £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO2. • 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon. • A Mobile Phone charger: > 10 kWh per year • ~ 500 balloons each year. • Standby on electrical appliances • up to 20 - 150+ kWh a year - 7500 balloons. (up to £15 a year) • A Toyota Corolla (1400cc): 1 party balloon every 60m. • Filling up with petrol (~£50 for a full tank – 40 litres) • --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon) How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for1 hour? 1.6 miles School children at the Al Fatah University, Tripoli, Libya

  32. The Behavioural Dimension: Awareness raising Social Attitudes towards energy consumption have a profound effect on actual consumption Data collected from 114 houses in Norwich between mid November 2006 and mid March 2007 For a given size of household electricity consumption for appliances [NOT HEATING or HOT WATER] can vary by as much as 9 times. When income levels are accounted for, variation is still 6 times 32

  33. Electricity Consumption in an Office Building in East Anglia Low Energy Lighting Installed • Consumption rose to nearly double level of early 2005. • Malfunction of Air-conditioning plant. • Extra fuel cost £12 000 per annum ~£1000 to repair fault • Additional CO2 emitted ~ 100 tonnes.

  34. Average Domestic Electricity Consumption in Norfolk and Suffolk • % of average cost of electricity bills compared to National Average • Rank position in UK out of 408 Local Authorities Average house in Norwich emits 1.87 tonnes of CO2 from electricity consumption in Kings Lynn 3.04 tonnes of CO2 (based on UK emission factors) Average household electricity bill in Norwich is 64% that in Kings Lynn

  35. Existing Renewables Electricity Supply in Norfolk and Suffolk (GWh) • Total generation in Norfolk and Suffolk (allowing for losses) ~ 11000 GWh • Total demand in Norfolk and Suffolk • = 7803 GWh • Net export to remainder of UK ~ 3200 GWh • 2009 Data for Renewables and Sizewell • Other Data based on typical load factors Great Yarmouth Sizewell B At £12.50 per tonne (EU-ETS price), this represents a benefit of £18 million to rest of UK in carbon saved. Export of Electricity to rest of UK

  36. Sustainable Options for the future? • Energy Generation • Solar thermal - providing hot water - most suitable for domestic installations, hotels – generally lees suitable for other businesses • Solar PV – providing electricity - suitable for all sizes of installation • Example 2 panel ( 2.6 sqm ) in Norwich – generates 826kWh/year (average over 7 years). • The more hot water you use the more solar heat you get! • Renewable Heat Incentive available from 2012 • Area required for 1 kW peak varies from ~ 5.5 to 8.5 sqm depending on technology and manufacturer • Approximate annual estimate of generation • = installed capacity * 8760 * 0.095 hours in year load/capacity factor of 9.5%

  37. How Variable is Wind Energy? Data from BMREPORTS for 2010 Changes in output over 30 minute period Wind Max: 914 MW Min: – 1051 MW StDev : 37.8 MW Nuclear Max: 1630 MW Min: - 877 MW StDev: 39.9MW Data for Sun/Mon 25/26 Sep 2011 37

  38. How Variable is Wind Energy? 70% of Wind Output is now Visible to National Grid Predictions are made 2 days and 1 day in advance and demonstrate a correlation comparable with the prediction of demand variations. Prediction made mid-afternoon for next 48 hours Prediction made 1 day later and typically for output 24 hours in advance Actual Output in last week of January 2012

  39. Options available for the Householder • Energy Generation • Micro Wind - roof mounted turbines • Mini Wind - mast mounted turbines – can be good as long as well clear of buildings, trees, etc – can be a good option for farms Building Mounted - ~ 1kW machines ~ generally poor performance because of turbulence except in a few locations Not generally recommended Mast mounted away from buildings - 6kW Potential output 6000 – 10000 kWh depending on location Vertical Axis machine – better in turbulence

  40. Alternative Strategies for Financing • Consumer purchases system and benefits from both reduction in imported electricity and Feed In Tariff – suitable for both domestic and commercial properties for those who are capital rich but income poor. • Company pays for and installs system and claims the Feed In Tariff – the owner of land benefits from reduced energy bills – for those with limited capital and less concerned with income. • Schemes exist for • small wind – e.g. Windcrop who offer 5kW turbines which are less affected by planning issues • Domestic/community PV up to 50kW Images courtesy of WindCrop Honningham Thorpe, Norfolk

  41. Options available for the Householder • Energy Generation • Onshore Wind - sensible for community schemes – e.g. Orkney, Germany, Denmark etc – the cheapest form of renewable energy • Biomass boilers - can be sensible but need a reliable fuel supply. In cost terms with the proposed Renewable Heat Incentive there are attractions for homes heated by oil or electricity but not, at present, mains gas. • Most convenient if running on pellets • Cheaper with wood chip but more difficult to automate

  42. Options available for the Householder – Heat Pumps Ground Source: Heat Pumps Typically twice floor area of house is required for heat collection. Best performance with under floor heating – i.e difference between heat supply and source temperature is as low as possible Zones of house can be controlled via a manifold

  43. Options available for the Householder – Heat Pumps Heat pumps run off electricity For a well designed ground source heat pump system: Typically 3.5 – 4.5 as much heat is produced as electricity consumed – the Coefficient of Performance (COP). If a buffer tank is included in system, then off peak electricity can be used to heat store overnight – minimising use of full rate electricity. Air source heat pumps require external fan system, and are not as efficient as air temperature is low when most heat is needed. Retro fitting with existing radiators will lead to poor COP, but could be improved by fitting double radiators and/or a buffer tank

  44. Micro CHP Options available for the Householder – CHP Replaces normal boiler Provides heat and electricity – would normally run on gas Currently there are incentives under the Feed In Tariff. All microgeneration Installations such as solar, wind, biomass, heat pumps, CHP must be MCS Accredited • To be eligible to claim for any Incentive the installation must be installed by a registered MCS installer. • Certificate of installation must be presented at time of registration.

  45. Seeking Effective Low Carbon Solutions for Energy Supply Small scale solar PV under the Feed in Tariff (@43.3p/kWh) ~ £700+ per tonne CO2 saved Large Scale On-shore wind under Renewable obligation ~ £90+ per tonne CO2 saved 713 7000 MWh on shore wind generated at an extra cost of £265.4M Total generated = 361 110 000 MWh: Effective subsidy = 0.07p / kWh ~ 0.6% on domestic bills or ~2% with all renewables considered Compared to rises of 20%+ mostly from increases in fossil fuels Subsidy for onshore wind is being cut by 10% in near future Cavity Insulation ~ <<£20 per tonne CO2 saved There will be an increased demand for electricity in a future which promotes conservation of energy! - heat pumps – electric vehicles Effective Energy Management can often be cost negative in terms of CO2 saved. An effective strategy will focus on most cost effective solutions both in the short term and long term. Data from Digest of UK Energy Statistics 2011 45

  46. Conclusions: A Strategy for Future Sustainable Energy Supply • Will require: • Effective Awareness and Energy Management; • Improved Technology to make better use of existing energy; • Low Carbon Energy Supply – including: • Cost effective and technically mature renewables • Nuclear (?) • Carbon Capture and Sequestration – but this will not be available until mid 2020s on scale required if then. • Only On Shore Wind (??? Some biomass) will be most cost effective solutions for renewable energy until at least 2020 • Large Scale Wind is often meeting stiff opposition from planning issues – many of which are red-herrings • Innovative solutions for financing

  47. Ethical Issues The Unbalanced Triangular Trade 0.94 billion people Raw materials 1.33 billion people Aid & Education Products: 478 Mtonnes CO2 increase in 3 years Water issues are equally important. Each tonne of steel imported from a developing country consumes ~ 40 - 50 tonnes of water 1.03 billion people Each person in Developed Countries has been responsible for an extra 463 kg of CO2 emissions in goods imported from China in just 3 years

  48. Conclusions and Reflections (1) • Global Warming will affect us all - in next few decades • Energy Security will become increasingly important, particularly in the UK. • Energy costs are rising mostly from increasing scarcity of traditional fossil fuels • Inaction over making difficult decisions now will make Energy Insecurity and cost increases more likely in future. • Move towards energy conservation and LOCAL generation of renewable energy and small changes in behaviour It is as much about the individual’s response to use of energy as any technical measures the Government may take. • What about our Christian response? • Do we ignore these warnings?

  49. Conclusions and Reflections (1) • Together we can make a difference • > a sustainable future for all our children and those overseas • Even we might have to decide whether to drive 1.6 miles or heat our home for one hour. • Remember the story about the camel and the eye of a needle • Matthew: 19:26. “...for God anything is possible” – so let us ask God to show us the way forward FINALLY "If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading." This presentation will be available from tomorrow at （直译）：“如果你不改变，你将止步于原地。” LaoTzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher www.uea.ac.uk/~e680/cred/creduea.htm

  50. Act of Commitment • As we celebrate the goodness, diversity and wonder of God’s creation, we admit our collective guilt in allowing species to become so swiftly extinct, in depleting finite energy and raw materials, and in polluting the earth’s soil, water and atmosphere. Let us be ready to change the way we think and live. • Through our lives and by our prayers Your kingdom come. • Let us commit ourselves, as individuals and within our churches, to do all we can to heal and restore the damage people have caused to God’s earth, and to develop sustainable lifestyles, both for ourselves and to inspire others. • Through our lives and by our prayers Your kingdom come. • Let us commit ourselves to do all in our power to support church communities planning a better way of living in their localities. • Through our lives and by our prayers Your kingdom come.

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