From Observation to Method: The Example of Engineering Change Prediction

1. From Observation to Method: The Example of Engineering Change Prediction Prof Claudia Eckert The Open University

2. Motivation for change research • Complex products are designed incrementally • Products are customised to needs • Changes are required in the product development process of deal of new requirements and problems

3. Overview of the talk • Methodological approach • Initial case study on engineering change • Empirical study • Change prediction tool • Later change research • Methodological reflection

4. Methodological approach • Identification of problem / hurt in industry • Industry approaching academia • Previous research identified problem and a new company is approached • Empirical study of problem in industry • Interviews • Observations • Analysis of documentation • Researcher embedded in organisation • Tools and methods developed in response to identified problems

5. Case study methodology • Invited into the company to support process planning with parameter confidence level • 22 interviews with engineers in the organisation • Dependency matrices to elicit complete information in interviews • Starting point for change prediction matrices • Development of prototype tool • Corroboration through examples

6. Causes of change

7. Identify need for change Consider alternative solutions Plan change process Carry out change Handling Change • Owners of change • Core engineering • Dedicated change team • Same process of handling change regardless of cause

8. ComponentConnectivity

9. Change Propagation

10. Change Risk Plots

11. Studying change • Customisation in helicopters 1999 • Versions in diesel engines 2001 • Conceptual design in jet engines 2002 • Freezes in diesel engines 2004 • Knowledge requirements 2006 for long life products • Integration of change and process planning 2009 • System architecture design 2009 • Change margins 2014 tendering New concept upgrades freezes versions features customization learning Conceptual Design Embodiment Design Detail Design Operation Disposal Manufacturing Pre-concept

12. Conditions Leading to Change • Complexity: products, platforms, variants • Product proliferation • Legislation and regulation • Technology infusion • Changing customer needs • Competitors • Large scale uncertainties • Changes throughout the development process

13. Summary of Causes of Change

14. Types of research • Academic research • Descriptive studies of how the process works • Theory development for change processes • Definition of change vocabulary • Tool for change prediction • Review papers • Industry benefits • Research not consultancy projects • Awareness of process • Insights into specific problems in processes • Vocabulary

15. Empirical Studies Eval Eval Introduction in Industry Models / Theory Insights Eval Eval Tools / Procedures The Spiral of Design Research

16. Empirical Studies Eval Eval Introduction in Industry Models / Theory Insights a b c d e f Eval Eval a b c d Tools / Procedures e f Product risk matrix

17. Empirical Studies Eval Eval Introduction in Industry Models / Theory Insights Eval Eval Tools / Procedures Multidisciplinary Research Human Computer Interaction Psychology Complexity Sociology Philosophy Artificial Intelligence Mathematics Computer Science

18. Conclusion • Empirical research drives tool and method development • Research is driven by industrial need • Underlying academic questions are approached as they appear