1 / 32

Objective Verification of CPC Outlooks

This report outlines the motivation, data, procedure, results, and future plans for the objective verification of outlooks at the CPC. It includes information on temperature and precipitation monitoring, station locations, analysis, and skill scores.

bonitam
Download Presentation

Objective Verification of CPC Outlooks

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Objective Verification of CPC Outlooks Michael Halpert Climate Prediction Center

  2. Outline • Motivation • Data • Procedure • Results • Future Plans

  3. Verification at CPC Historically, CPC has verified ERF and LRF at first order stations

  4. Forecasts made at 77 (out of 117) stations, 45 correct. Heidke Skill Score = 37.7%

  5. Temperature Station Locations Monitoring Data Sets Temperature • ~5000 stations/day: RFC, HADS, CADB • 0.5 x 0.5 degree resolution • 20°- 60°N, 140° - 60°W, Conus only • Mid – Midnight window • Daily Max + Min/2 • SD Quality Control check

  6. Monitoring Temperature 90 Day Mean/Anomaly

  7. Monitoring Data Sets Precipitation • ~8000 stations/day: RFC, HADS, CADB, SNOTEL, Mexican data • 0.25 x 0.25 deg resolution • 10°- 60°N, 140° - 60°W, Conus/Mexico • 12Z – 12Z window • QC: SD, buddy, Duplicate, Nexrad checks Precipitation Station Locations

  8. Monitoring Precipitation

  9. 2° x 2° Grid 20° - 56°N, 130° - 60°W, 232 valid points

  10. Temperature Analysis

  11. January – March Temperature Difference (Upper – Lower) Procedure Calculate means and tercile limits for all 232 grid boxes based on 1971-2000 base period Tercile limits calculated as 0.43 SD for temperature; 33rd and 67th percentile (based on gamma) for precipitation

  12. Procedure • Characterize seasonal mean temperature and total precipitation as above, near, or below average.

  13. Procedure • Compare verification field to forecast DJF Verification Grid DJF Forecast Grid

  14. Seasonal OutlookDec 2005 – Feb 2006

  15. Heidke = 82, Coverage = 64% Seasonal OutlookDec 2005 – Feb 2006 Heidke = 77, Coverage = 73%

  16. All Non-EC % Cov 37.6 71.0 53.0 April – June 2006 Temperature

  17. All Non-EC % Cov 27.6 48.1 57.3 April – June 2006 Temperature

  18. Temperature Skill ScoresGridded vs. Stations ( non-EC) Gridded Score – 23.7 Station Score – 24.2

  19. April – June 2006 Precipitation All Non-EC % Cov 2.6 5.9 43.6

  20. April – June 2006 Precipitation All Non-EC % Cov 14.9 39.7 37.5

  21. June 2006 TOfficial, Update, Observations 0.5 Lead UPD OBS Off. Up. Change All Stations 18.4 33.3 +14.9 Non-EC: 56.6 65.0 +8.4 % Cov: 32.5 51.3 +18.8

  22. June 2006 TOfficial, Update, Observations 0.5 Lead UPD OBS Off. Up. Change All Stations 18.8 25.4 +6.6 Non-EC: 48.3 43.1 -5.2 % Cov: 38.8 59.1 +20.3

  23. Gridded verification makes tool verification simple

  24. JJA 2006 Temperature

  25. JJA 2006 Temperature Official – 60 Consolidation – 58.2

  26. January – March 1998 Temperature Official – 37.3 Consolidation – 51.5

  27. Temperature Heidke Skill ScoresOfficial vs. Consolidation (non-EC) Official – 23.7 Consolidation – 27.6

  28. Temperature Heidke Skill ScoresOfficial vs. Consolidation (all) Official – 11.4 Consolidation – 18.4

  29. Precipitation Heidke Skill ScoresOfficial vs. Consolidation (non-EC) Official – 5.3 Consolidation – 12.4

  30. Precipitation Heidke Skill ScoresOfficial vs. Consolidation (all) Official – 1.4 Consolidation – 3.1

  31. Future Plans Seasonal/monthly • Conversion of tools to 2x2 grid • Verification of tools • Ranked Probability Skill Score

  32. Future Plans Extended Range • Development of 5 and 7 day data sets • Precipitation Complications • Development of tercile limits • Verification of forecasts • Verification of tools • RPSS

More Related