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SRNWP-PEPS

Short-Range. Numerical Weather Prediction. Programme. SRNWP-PEPS. a regional multi-model ensemble in Europe. COSMO General Meeting 2005 20-23 September 2005 Zürich (Switzerland) Presentation of Michael Denhard. Internet: www.dwd.de/PEPS. 20 weather services / 23 forecast products.

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SRNWP-PEPS

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  1. Short-Range Numerical Weather Prediction Programme SRNWP-PEPS a regional multi-model ensemble in Europe COSMO General Meeting 2005 20-23 September 2005 Zürich (Switzerland) Presentation of Michael Denhard Internet: www.dwd.de/PEPS

  2. 20 weather services / 23 forecast products Denmark HIRLAM 16 ECMWF +60h 0, 6, 12, 18 Finland HIRLAM 22 ECMWF +54h 0, 6, 12, 18 Ireland HIRLAM 16 ECMWF +48h 0, 6, 12, 18 Netherlands HIRLAM 22 ECMWF +48h 0, 6, 12, 18 Spain HIRLAM 22 ECMWF +24h 0, 12 Norway I HIRLAM 11 ECMWF +30h 0, 12 Norway II HIRLAM 22 ECMWF +30h 0, 12 Sweden I HIRLAM 11 ECMWF +48h 0, 6, 12, 18 Sweden II HIRLAM 22 ECMWF +48h 0, 6, 12, 18 Belgium ALADIN 15 ARPEGE +60h 0, 12 Austria ALADIN-AUSTRIA 9.6 ARPEGE +48h 0, 12 France ALADIN-FRANCE 11 ARPEGE +48h 0, 12 Croatia ALADIN-LACE 8.9 ARPEGE +48h 0, 12 Czech Rep. ALADIN-LACE 11 ARPEGE +48h 0, 12 Hungary ALADIN-LACE 11 ARPEGE +48h 0, 12 Slovakia ALADIN-LACE 11 ARPEGE +48h 0, 12 Slovenia ALADIN-LACE 9.5 ARPEGE +48h 0, 12 UK I UKMO-LAM 12 UM global +48h 0, 6, 12, 18 UK II UKMO-EU 12 UM global +48h 0, 6, 12, 18 Germany LM 7 GME +48h 0, 12, 18 Switzerland aLMo 7 ECMWF +72h 0, 12 Italy Euro LM 7 EuroHRM +60h 0 Poland LM 14 GME +72h 0, 12

  3. Probabilities (Nearest Neighbour) SRNWP-PEPS PEPS-Grid with a grid spacing of 0.0625° (~7 km) covering Europe The ensemble size depends on location and every PEPS grid point has its own probability distribution

  4. Ensemble mean. Forecast periods +06...+30h (24 hours), +06...+18h and +18...+30h (12 hours) • Total precipitation (accumulation), sum of convective and large scale precipitation • Total snow (accumulation) ), sum of convective and large scale snow • Maximum 10 m wind speed • Maximum 10 m wind gust speed • 2 m minimum/maximum temperature • Probabilistic products. Forecast period +06...+30h (24 hours) • Probabilities of total precipitation Thresholds: > 20, > 50, > 100 mm • Probabilities of total snow Thresholds: > 1, > 5, > 10, > 20 cm • Probabilities of maximum wind speed Thresholds: > 10, > 15, > 20, > 25 m/s • Probabilities of maximum wind gust speed Thresholds: > 10, > 15, > 20, > 25, > 33 m/s • Probabilistic products. Forecast periods +06...+18h and +18...+30h (12 hours) • Probabilities of total precipitation Thresholds: > 25, > 40, > 70 mm • Probabilities of total snow Thresholds: > 1, > 5, > 10, > 20 cm • Probabilities of maximum wind speed Thresholds: > 10, > 15, > 20, > 25 m/s • Probabilities of maximum wind gust speed Thresholds: > 10, > 15, > 20, > 25, > 33 m/s Ensemble Products

  5. Total precip. Total Wind Wind gust Temperature snow speed speed 00 UTC 20 19 20 8 20 06 UTC 7 6 7 - 7 12 UTC 20 19 20 8 20 18 UTC 8 7 8 1 8 Maximum Ensemble Size depends on main run and meteorological parameter Maximum Ensemble Size

  6. Ensemble Mean 21/01/2005 00 UTC +06...30

  7. 21/01/2005 00 UTC +06...30

  8. Cut-off times SRNWP-PEPS runs operationally since December 2004

  9. planned under way running • Mask of areas without sufficient models • Wind gusts provided by COSMO and some ALADIN countries statistical estimation of wind gusts within PEPS? • Statistics of availability of models • Additional products more synoptic oriented parameters indices of convectivity • Precipitation median instead of mean lower thresholds • PEPS-Meteograms (provided by Meteoswiss)

  10. planned under way running • Validation Comparison with COSMO-LEPS Scoring probabilistic forecasts • Ensemble Calibration Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) Raftery et. al., 2005 BMA for precipitation

  11. planned under way running • Scientific use(products & individual forecasts) • EURORISK Prev.I.EW windstorms workpackage • MAP D-Phase(Mesoscale Alpine Program) • Hydrological Ensemble Forecasts • consistent forecast scenarios of precipitation from COSMO-LEPS, SRNWP-PEPS • and LMK for the „MULDE“ catchment in Germany • University Bochum, DWD, BAH Berlin, WASY • Wind Power Prediction • ”Optimal Combination of Local Area Models of European Weather Services with • Regard to Wind Power Prediction” • Energy & Meteo Systems, University Oldenburg, DWD • Commercial use (products only) ECOMET product list

  12. Thank you to the contributing Weather Services !

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