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SRNWP first workshop on MESOSCALE VERIFICATION

This workshop focused on verifying mesoscale weather predictions to improve forecasting accuracy. Results emphasized the need for data exchange, pattern matching, and probabilistic evaluation.

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SRNWP first workshop on MESOSCALE VERIFICATION

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  1. SRNWPfirst workshop onMESOSCALEVERIFICATION

  2. INTRODUCTION • What is SRNWP? • Why the workshop? • What was its outcome? • Lessons & recommendations Results from the first SRNWP mesoscale verification workshop. B. Wichers Schreur, KNMI

  3. SRNWP • Short Range Numerical Weather Prediction: • Eumetnet coordination of research • http://srnwp.sma.ch • Participating Consortia: • HIRLAM, ALADIN, LACE, COSMO, UKMO • Lead Centres: • 4DVar, NH modelling, numerical techniques, soil-surface, statistical adaptation, verification methods Results from the first SRNWP mesoscale verification workshop. B. Wichers Schreur, KNMI

  4. BACKGROUND • Verification of added value of mesoscale forecasting and R&D (‘return on investment’) • ‘Traditional’ approach does not apply: • data problems • simple accuracy measures lead to problems, e.g. ‘double penalty’ • areal & time averaged statistics remove short lived, small scales • what we value changes Results from the first SRNWP mesoscale verification workshop. B. Wichers Schreur, KNMI

  5. PRECIPITATION VERIFICATION • Radar • marginal distributions validation • contingency tables • pattern matching • High density networks • Analysis & field verification • Extreme events • Probabilistic evaluation (MOS, EPS, subjective), skill Results from the first SRNWP mesoscale verification workshop. B. Wichers Schreur, KNMI

  6. LESSONS & RECOMMENDATIONS • Need to exchange more data • Verification vs. radar is practical • Need to exploit precipitation structure information • Develop pattern matching (advection and development) • Feasibility probabilistic evaluation of added value in high resolution models • Multiplicity of metrics: just as many answers as questions  value Results from the first SRNWP mesoscale verification workshop. B. Wichers Schreur, KNMI

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