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Climate Change and the IPCC Fourth Assessment

Climate Change and the IPCC Fourth Assessment. Jean Palutikof Head, Technical Support Unit Working Group II IPCC Met Office, Exeter, UK. What is the greenhouse effect?. What is our contribution?. What is our contribution?. Other gases are important as well as CO2.

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Climate Change and the IPCC Fourth Assessment

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  1. Climate Change and the IPCC Fourth Assessment Jean Palutikof Head, Technical Support Unit Working Group II IPCC Met Office, Exeter, UK

  2. What is the greenhouse effect?

  3. What is our contribution?

  4. What is our contribution?

  5. Other gases are important as well as CO2

  6. What is the evidence for climate change?

  7. And from the longer record?

  8. What is the expected impact on climate? Change in global surface temperature Change in global mean sea level

  9. And at the regional scale?

  10. What tools do we have available?

  11. Pattern of annual average temperature change, 2080s relative to present day for A1F1 (left) and B2 (right) emissions scenarios

  12. Precipitation indices: maximum length of dry spell per year (2070-99 minus 1961-90) • A2a: • Longer by 15-30 days in centre and south east • 10 days shorter over northern Europe A2a A2a scenario • B2a: • Smaller changes than A2a • wetter Eastern Med. B2a

  13. Precipitation indices: max. 5-day running total(2070-99 minus 1961-90) • A2a: • Lower intensity, by 10-20 mm, in future, particularly in west • Increased intensity in centre and Adriatic A2a scenario • B2a: • Smaller changes than A2a • Clearly higher intensity in Italy

  14. What are the implications for European urban areas?

  15. Impacts • Impacts of more intense rainfall on storm drains/sewers • Heat stress • Changes in circulation and the implications for air pollution • Coastal cities and tidal surge • Implications of increased wind storm

  16. All cause death rate • Strongest associations with temperature are between August and March • In November, 64% of the variance in the death rate is explained by temperature • The reduction in the death rate due to a 1 degC increase in temperature and a 10mm decrease in rainfall is in the range 1-3% All months r2 = 0.67

  17. Adaptation • Through design: • Of urban spaces • Of buildings • Through behaviour • Use of the outdoor environment • Transport policies • Air conditioning

  18. Mitigation activities • Energy use • Reduction in demand • Use of renewables • Fuel-efficient transport systems

  19. What about surprises/abrupt climate change? • Collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet • Melting of the Greenland ice cap • Collapse of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation • Of course, the real surprises are the ones we haven’t thought of

  20. Is there controversy?

  21. The Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change • To assess the scientific literature on climate change • To support the UNFCCC • Three Working Groups • Science • Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability • Mitigation and Policy • Now carrying out the Fourth Assessment • To report in 2007

  22. Structure of WGII • Two Co-Chairs: • Martin Parry, UK • Osvaldo Canziani, Argentina • Six Vice-Chairs • One TSU with four full-time staff • Writing team of around 200 CLAs, LAs and REs, plus Contributing Authors • Four Lead Author Meetings

  23. Working Group II AR4 Summary for Policymakers + Technical Summary Introduction 1. Assessment of observed changes and responses in natural and managed systems II. ASSESSMENT OF FUTURE IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION: SECTORS 2. New assessment methodologies and the characterisation of future conditions 3. Fresh water resources and their management 4. Ecosystems, their properties, goods and services 5. Food, fibre and forest products 6. Coastal systems and low-lying areas 7. Industry, settlement, and society 8. Human health III. ASSESSMENT OF FUTURE IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION: REGIONS 9: Africa, 10: Asia, 11: Australia and New Zealand, 12: Europe, 13: Latin America 14: North America, 15: Polar Regions (Arctic and Antarctic), 16: Small Islands IV. ASSESSMENT OF RESPONSES 17. Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity 18. Inter-relationships between adaptation and mitigation 19. Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change 20. Perspectives on climate change and sustainability

  24. Supposing you wanted to contribute to the process • The IPCC assesses the literature • It seeks to be inclusive and consensual • The preference is for fully refereed publications • There are procedures to deal with ‘grey literature’ • Submissions of literature and/or text can be made to the appropriate CLA, the Co-Chairs or the TSU, for consideration

  25. The message from IPCC TAR • Emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols due to human activities continue to alter the atmosphere in ways that are expected to alter our climate • There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities • Human influences will continue to change atmospheric composion throughout the 21st century • Global temperatures and sea level are projected to rise under all IPCC SRES scenarios • Anthropogenic climate change will persist for many centuries • See www.ipcc.ch

  26. What will be the principal messages of the AR4?

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