Climate change in Western Australia

1. Climate change in Western Australia WALIS Forum 200813 March 2008 Dr Ray Wills CEO, WA Sustainable Energy Association Principal, Future Smart Strategies School of Earth and Geographical Sciences, The University of Western Australia

2. Sustainability in a changing climate for the community - and business. • McDonald's Corp. is blogging on the environment. • Starbucks Corp. has a green-themed online game. • Hilton Hotels Corp. linked manager pay to green outcomes. • All corporates have worked for years or even decades on pro-environment strategies and corporate social responsibility, and growing awareness of global warming among consumers is accelerating change. • Businesses in green buildings report improved productivity, better staff retention, fewer sick days, millions of dollars in energy savings and a reduced environmental footprint. • Some companies that "go green” have seen a 25% increase in trade with eco-shoppers and eco-traders, with a trend for green businesses to only deal with other green businesses. • First - some greenhouse science…

3. Greenhouse and global warming • Greenhouse theory • Basis first proposed by in 1824 • Greenhouse = earth’s “blanket” - average temperature about 15°C; otherwise would be -18°C • Anthropogenic global warming theory late 1960’s • UN and IMO lead debate late 1979 • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change formed 1988 • Rio 1992, Kyoto 1997 … • Warming of climate is now unequivocal – global increases in air and ocean temperatures, melting of snow and ice, and rising sea level. • The enhanced greenhouse effect is not hypothesis - empirically and theoretically well-established.

4. Instrumental record - temperature

5. Evidence of global warming artwork "Hot with a chance of a late storm" by The Glue Society.

6. About WA • WA perhaps first Western economy with recognised measurable economic impact through climate change.

7. About WA • Annual inflow to Perth dams dropped from 338 GL to 114 GL • Source: Water Corporation 2007.

8. About WA • WA perhaps first Western economy with recognised measurable economic impact through climate change. • WA SW had 20% decline in rainfall in the last 30 years - effects on runoff more serious with 50% drop in steam flow to reservoirs • Further 20% reduction predicted, and this may have already started at the end of the 1990s. • Value of lost income in water sales from dams is estimated at $1 billion in WA through water restrictions and additions to infrastructure (WaterCorp) - and almost another billion with Desal II.

9. About WA • A warming of 1.0°C is sufficient to move climate belts about 150 km south. A regional temperature change of 2 °C likely to have a serious impact on most life forms, and on most ecosystems and agricultural areas. Changes by 2040

10. About WA • Climate change is arguably the most important key threatening process to all biota. • Biota in narrow climatic bands are likely to suffer changes in the patterns of distribution and abundance of a range of species. • Impacts both direct - climate affecting plant species establishment and persistence, and indirect - climate impacting bushfire regimes or increased summer rainfall increasing the spread of dieback. • Rise of 2ºC results in loss of 66% of Dryandra species, 41% of Australian eucalyptus species (including many WA species), and 100% of Acacia species. • Similar studies for fauna - all frog and mammal species

11. About WA • With global warming and drying of the south coast in WA, areas with temperature increases > 2° C combined with a decline in rainfall consistently below 400 mm will lead to the loss of many species of Proteaceae in WA's SW. • It is likely the iconic Banksia and Dryandra will die out. • So too will the animals that live on them.

12. About WA • Climate is key determinant of agriculture - changes in climate will impact on crops and livestock. • Rising temperatures will cause a shift in budburst, shorter growing seasons, earlier harvest dates, lower crop quality, changes in soil temperatures. • Wheat growing areas in SW WA seriously impacted • Northern wheatbelt likely to disappear, south reduced. • Wipes out most of an industry worth more than $2 billion. • Climate is a key influence in grape selection. • Shifting rainfall patterns and drier conditions will change the way vineyards operate and reduce the wine crop. • WA produces around 5% of all Australian wine, about 25% of wine in super-premium and ultra-premium categories.

13. Sea level changes Mandurah at 1m sea level rise Courtesy of WA Sustainable Energy Association

14. Sea level changes Mandurah at 7m sea level rise Courtesy of WA Sustainable Energy Association

15. Sea level changes

16. About WA • The Indian Ocean has warmed an average 0.6°C since 1960 - the largest warming occurred off Northwest WA. • Bleaching of coral from higher ocean temperatures will kill parts of the Ningaloo Reef just as the Great Barrier Reef. • Acidification of oceans through carbonation will impact on fisheries. • Impacts will be greater for some regions and ecosystems, and will be most severe for coral reefs and the Southern Ocean.

17. Global changes http://www.igbp.kva.se//uploads/ESO_IGBP4.pdf

18. Abrupt climate change • Abrupt climate change is inherently unpredictable. • For this reason climate adaptation is as important as climate mitigation of greenhouse gases. • Knowledge that abrupt climate change and natural disasters have wrenched past societies into disarray makes the case to build resilient societies more urgent.

19. Responding to climate change • The threat of dangerous climate change underscores the need to build a sustainable economy. • An effective response will change the way we use energy and in so doing, future proof our economy. • Action by government, business and the community must put in place measures that • reduce unnecessary use; • promote energy efficiency across life cycles; • reduce our reliance on increasingly expensive traditional fuels; and • promote the production of energy through renewable generation.

20. Economic risk of change Climate Risk Sector Level Physical Risk Political / Regulatory Supply Chain Company Level Staff Litigation Reputation / Brand Products / Technology Business Advantage On A Warming Planet - Jonathan Lash

21. Litigation • Negligence is common law – if you have knowledge that something is at risk and fail to act, you are negligent. • Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) updated guidelines state companies are required to disclose whether they have policies to manage risks that might include environmental and sustainability issues. • More than any other issue, global warming is blurring the lines between corporate fiduciary duties, profitability and corporate social responsibility.

22. Energy - and networks • Fossil fuel prices will continue to push up inflation, but renewable energy will continue to shine on us, to wash up on our shores, and to blow past us without additional cost. • Australia is the Middle East of renewable energy and we are failing to harvest the energy bonanza for the benefit of the Australian economy and especially for Australia’s export industries. • We need to plan the networks, strategically place the infrastructure.

23. Inflation • A sustainable way to fight inflation is deliver energy efficiency in all things that result in long term energy savings and reduce inflationary pressures that would otherwise impact on the CPI

24. Send in the paradigms • We need to stop growth in emissions, and then reduce. • Some big experiments in socialism failed because they failed to take account of the market. • Capitalism will fail if it ignores the ecological consequences of our use of the environment. • A lesson from history is that we don’t learn from history (we need to change this!) • Winston Churchill: • History tells us that we will choose the right path – once we have explored all the wrong ones. • It's not enough that we do our best; sometimes we have to do what's required.

25. WA SEA – WA’s peak body for sustainable energy • WA SEA works on behalf of members to ensure that the State and Federal Governments support the development and adoption of sustainable energy technologies and services that minimise the use of energy through sustainable energy practices and maximise the use of energy from sustainable sources. • Our members are the business part of the solution to climate change. Join us…

26. The inconvenient truth - time has run out for solutions that are simply convenient. Dr Ray Wills WA Sustainable Energy Association ceo@wasea.com.au Future Smart Strategies rwills@futuresmart.com.au School of Earth and Geographical Sciences, The University of Western Australia rwills@segs.uwa.edu.au