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Climate Change Impacts in the Western Canadian Boreal Forest

Climate Change Impacts in the Western Canadian Boreal Forest. Mark Johnston Saskatchewan Research Council Climate Change and Forests: Making Adaptation a Reality Winnipeg, MB Nov 18 & 19, 2003. Motivation. Western Canadian boreal forest expected to be strongly affected by climate change

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Climate Change Impacts in the Western Canadian Boreal Forest

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  1. Climate Change Impacts in the Western Canadian Boreal Forest Mark Johnston Saskatchewan Research Council Climate Change and Forests: Making Adaptation a Reality Winnipeg, MB Nov 18 & 19, 2003

  2. Motivation • Western Canadian boreal forest expected to be strongly affected by climate change • Location: Northern latitudes, continental interior • Ecotones particularly sensitive, e.g. forest/grassland boundary in the prairies • Current information on CC presented at inappropriate temporal and spatial scales

  3. Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability to Climate Change Increases in I&D populations Increased tree mortality due to I&D Forest under moisture stress Warmer, drier climate Impacts to regeneration Impacts to productivity Increased fuel availability Increased fire frequency and severity Increased fire hazard

  4. Environmental Drivers • Temperature • Both air and soil temperatures are important • Moisture availability • Soil is key • Nutrient Availability • Especially nitrogen • Atmospheric CO2 concentration • Interactions with other factors

  5. plot-level Duke University FACE study – 13 yr-old loblolly pine plantation 550 ppmv CO2 Oren et al. 2001 Acclimation! individual tree-level (1983-1993)

  6. Duke FACE study moderately fertile site Importance of nutrient availability! infertile site Also found reduction of CO2 effect during periods of water stress

  7. Irrigated Irrigated + fertilized Volume growth for Norway Spruce in Sweden at 64° N with 5° C soil temperature increase MAI With No Warming Additional MAI Due to Warming Source: Stromgren and Linder 2002

  8. Moisture Availability • Used AET/PET ratio to look at demand for water AET: Actual Evapotranspiration PET: Potential Evapotranspiration • Soil available water-holding capacity (AWC) very important • Sand – low AWC • Clay – high AWC

  9. - Soil AWC is critical for vulnerability assessment - Productivity can increase or decrease Source: Johnston 2001

  10. Nisbet Forest Source: Johnston 2001

  11. Persistence of vegetation greeness in North America and Europe Source: Zhou et al. 2001

  12. Forest Fire Potential Seasonal Severity Rating 1xCO2/2xCO2 Source: Flannigan et al. 2001

  13. Projected Head Fire Intensity – Nisbet Landscape Source: Kafka et al. 2001

  14. Age class structure Nisbet Forest

  15. Insects • Drought increases vulnerability to insect feeding – higher carbohydrate levels in foliage (Mattson and Haack 1987) • Jack pine budworm increases under drought conditions (Volney and Fleming 2000) • FTC associated with drought in Bronson Forest (Hogg and Schwarz 1999 ) • Fragmentation shown to increase FTC populations (Roland and Taylor 1997, Rothman and Roland 1998) • Mt pine beetle may move into JP populations with shift in -40° C isotherm – overlaps with LP in NW Alberta (Carroll 2003)

  16. Distribution of jack pine and lodgepole pine and the zone of hybridization Source: Alberta Sustainable Resource Development

  17. Insects • However, increases in disturbance, either natural (fire) or human-caused (harvesting) will reset age-class structure to younger age classes and may decrease the risk of insect outbreaks

  18. Other issues • Forest operations: seasonal effects • Increased grass cover in forest fringe – increased grazing? • Land use effects on re-activating dunes • Impacts to tree-based and water-based recreation • Biodiversity – changes to habitat • Introduction of exotics (accidentally, planned)

  19. Responses • Requires ecologically-based inventory and monitoring program • Landscape-level fire planning and fuels management – FIRESMART • Careful attention to forest regeneration – site selection; more management inputs; role of exotics? • More attention to forest health issues • More intensive silviculture, stand management • Incorporation of CC impacts into management plans • See Spittlehouse & Stewart (2003) for more detail

  20. Other Research Initiatives • Climate Change Impacts on Annual Allowable Cut • Forest industry focus • Forest Policy and Climate Change • Provincial government focus • Forest fires, health and climate change • Northern communities focus

  21. Foothills forest Boreal forest Aspen parkland Grassland Present Climate showing moisture index Source: (Hogg and Hurdle 1995)

  22. 2 x CO2 Foothills forest Boreal forest Aspen parkland Grassland Future climate? Source: (Hogg and Hurdle 1995)

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