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Regional Workshop on Climate Change and Local Action. ARMENIA CASE STUDY: Climate Change Impact Study for Lusadzor Village in Tavush Marz , Armenia. Naira Aslanyan September 19-22, 2011 Bratislava, Slovak Republic. Armenia’s Climate Profile.
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Regional Workshop on Climate Change and Local Action ARMENIA CASE STUDY: Climate Change Impact Study for Lusadzor Village in TavushMarz, Armenia Naira Aslanyan September 19-22, 2011 Bratislava, Slovak Republic
Armenia’s Climate Profile • Climate: from dry subtropical to frosty highlands • Observed climate aridification: temp. incraese by 0.850C (1929-2007), precipitation decrease by 6% (1935-2004). • Extreme weather events & natural disasters: Droughts, seasonal flooding, hailstorm, early frost, landslides, mudflows, rockfalls, forest fires • Water stresses: water reserves in snow decreased annually by 5-10% during (1961-90) • Forest area: 10.4% of territory, 20,000 ha suffers by pests, 168,000USD damaged due to forest fires (2004-2009) • CC scenarios by 2100: Temp. increase - by 5.80C, precipitation decrease – by 9% • projected consequences of CC (by 2100) – reduction of: river flow – 24.4%, snow cover – 20-40%, soil humidiy – 10-30% (by 2050), productivity of arable lands – 15-34% Aggravation of health/epidemiological/ situation – increased cases of infectious diseases (including water born), heat waves, atypical diseases
Rationale : Programme supports local development in climate sensitive area (floods, mudflows, frost, hail); Focuse on rural infrastructure rehabilitation and agriculture development. Lusadzor Project activities: Access to non-cultivated arable land; Construction of irrigation system operating through gravity flow; Construction of internal network for potable water; Planting of persimmon orchards and distribution of seedlings to rural households; Creation of revolving funds of wheat, maize and potato seeds. Climate Relevance: Situation analysis recognizesdextremeweather events and climate disasters as important risks hindering local development; However, no target efforts have been made to address these risks in local planning and pilot activities. Objective of CC proofing: Minimize CC impact on CDP outputs; Foster activities which can increase the adaptive capacity of communities. UNDP CDP Screening
Lusadzor: a border village in Ijevan district of Tavushmarz Elevation: 700 m Types of terrain: low and middle mountain steppe, and low mountain dry steppe Territory: 626 ha with 73.8% agricultural land Soil category: mountain-steppe Vegetation type: wood land Average annual temperature & precipitation: 110C & 600 mm; on average, 150 sunny days Population: 359 men and 365 women # of inhabited households in 2007: 197 Employed in agriculture: 33,5% of total local population Non agricultural activities: at commercial counters, a stone-working worshop, preferrite and dolomite mines, other Education level: above 16 years old, 25% have higher/secondary/vocational degrees Receiving family allowances: 22.8% of the households Lusadzor Community Profile
Rrisk assessment - Top down approach • Climate disasters prone area: • floods, mudflows, frost, hail; • Community development challenges: • low agricultural productivity, • land abandonment (poor irrigation, access to arable lands) • poor rural infrastructure (housing issues, poot roads and bridge connecting to arable lands in the village) • remoteness of markets and low prices • climate variability and projected CC expected to exacerbate the development challenges • Needs to address the challenges: • Information gaps for diagnosis: low resolution scenarios (national level, derived from regional scenarios); need for bottom-up V&A assessment: • Observable changes, shifts in seasons; • Type and magnitude of losses due to the hazards; • Current coping mechanisms and capacities; • Priority needs to address additional vulnerabilities • Need for site-specific projections.
Risk and V&A assessment - Bottom-up approach • Interviews: • - Local Communities • - Representatives of Agr. Dept, TavushMarz Administration • 1. Effectiveness • 2. Cost • 3. Adequace for current climate • 4. Technical feasibility • Anallysis of meteo data: • - Ijevan Met. Post • - Berd Met. Post Methodology • Expert Judgement
Findings • The frequency and intensity of climatic hazards has increased • There are tangible economic losses due to climatic hazards (washed out lands, damaged crops and infrastructure. In 2004-2007: 57,500 USD) • lack of information (weather forecasts, risk mitigation measures) is one of the main barriers to coping with climate risks Data for 1991-2006 compared with 1961-1990 • air temperature increase - the highest in summer • precipitation increase in spring & summer and decrease in fall & winter Monthly average T (0C) & P (mm) 1961-1990 with max and min 1991-2006
Projected CC for north-east of Armenia Based on the report “Model Simulations of Climate Change over Armenia Region”developed under SNC
Screening of Lusadzor Project Activities • Project activities screened for: • climate change sensitivity • adaptation value (positive or negative) using expert judgment and taking into account predicted climate change impacts for the area Findings: • The sensitivity assessment of the Lusadzor Project found that the project’s outcomes are not at high risk from climate change • Some of the project activities have positive adaptation value • Project activities are not sufficient to build the adaptive capacity of the local population and improve their livelihood in the face of climate change
Economic assessment of adaptation measures Effectiveness: benefits, damages avoided or mitigated, losses and associated costs avoided or minimized Cost: incremental to “business as usual” Adequacy for current climate: benefits under the current climatic conditions and future scenarios Technical feasibility: capacity and means to implement the measure Assessment Criteria (where: + low, ++ medium, +++ high)
Adaptation measures (total costs - appr. 213,000 USD) Transformation of non-cultivated lands to arable lands. (81,000 USD) - Being implemented by MCA Improving local seasonal forecasting and early warning: flood early warning, weather forecasting, droughts etc. (720 USD) – Proposed to be implemented by local authorities, Ijevanhydromet station Farm piloting / demonstration of adaptation measures. (124,837 USD) – Proposed to be supported by various donors Facilitation of community meetings and farmer trainings on climate risk management to identify and help develop farmers coping and adaptation strategies. (2,558 USD) – Proposed to be implemented by local authorities Creation of communal social nets and common pool of resources to cope with major stressors in the community. (2,654 USD) – Being implemented by UNDP Armenia Incorporation of adaptation measures into the integrated dev. plans for communities, e.g. infrastructure development works.(1,187 USD) – Proposed to be implemented with the support of meteorologists and hydrologists from Ijevanhydromet station
Key Challenges • Constraints with meteorological data availability; • Reliability of available information; • Proper assessment of damage caused by climatic hazards is not comprehensive and periodic – due to the absence of insurance system; • Farms are small and have limited coping capacity Lessons Learned • Time consuming exercise due to participatory process; • Some of project activities had adaptation value – important to identify before proposing an adaptation measure; • There is always scope to improve adaptation capacity to increase effectiveness and sustainability of the project; • Important to focus on cost-effective and feasible measures • Important to introduce CRM at project design stage, as part of feasibility, so that additional costs do not incur to the project budget • There are apparent links between CC adaptation and disaster risk reduction – important to looked at them in parrallel while deisgning a project.
Local Actions – Lusadzor(2008-2011) UNDP CDP - Greenhouses established MCA - Collection Centre constructed for collecting, sorting, cold storage and further marketing of agricultural products in communities of TavushMarz UNDP CDP-potable water network reconstructed MCA - Rehabilitation of tertiary canal in Lusadzor • UNDP CDP – 120 rural households engaged in artificial insemination of cattle – “Zebu” Other: Trainings/Awareness raising events on CC organized by UNDP & OXFAM for local communities/ authorities of Lusadzor MCA - Gravity system in Lusadzor constructed for irrigation of 300 hectares - (2 pumping stations to be eliminated- resulting in 0.6 mln. Kwt/hour electricity saving). UNDP - solar water heater installed on cooperative kitchen
THANK YOU Government Building #3, Yerevan, Republic Square 5th Floor, Suite 533 Phone: (37410) 58-39-20, Fax: (37410) 58-39-33 E-mail: naira.aslanyan@undp.org URL: www.nature-ic.am