Adaptation to Climate Change and Sustainable Development: A Case study of Bangladesh

1. Adaptation to Climate Change and Sustainable Development: A Case study of Bangladesh Dr. Saleemul Huq Director Climate Change Programme International Institute for Environment and Development, London, United Kingdom

2. Bangladesh: Climate Change and Sustainable Development Study • Carried out in 2000 by Bangladeshi and international team • Based on previous work done on assessing vulnerability of Bangladesh to climate change impacts • Two climate change and sea level scenarios chosen for 2030 and 2050

3. Objectives of the study • What are the expected climate changes? • What are the consequences for Bangladesh? • For what climate change-induced impacts is Bangladesh most vulnerable? • How can the potential effects of climate change be factored into policy making, and what adaptation measures for Bangladesh are most feasible?

4. Sectors chosen • Coastal resources • Fresh Water resources • Agriculture • Human health • Ecosystem and biodiversity

5. Geography Most elevations under 10m Climate Subject to severe natural disasters Population 1998 population 126 million. High growth rate and population density Economy One of the world’s poorest nations. 1999 GNP/capita: $370 Education Literacy rate of 53% Human Health Life expectancy: 58 years. 56% under 5 malnourished Factors Increasing Bangladesh’s Vulnerability to Climate Change

6. Geography Most elevations under 10m Climate Subject to severe natural disasters Population 1998 population 126 million. High growth rate and population density Economy One of the world’s poorest nations. 1999 GNP/capita: $370 Education Literacy rate of 53% Human Health Life expectancy: 58 years. 56% under 5 malnourished Factors Increasing Bangladesh’s Vulnerability to Climate Change

7. Year Sea Level Rise (cm) Temperature Increase (ºC) Precipitation Fluctuation Compared to 1990 (%) 2030 30 +0.7 in monsoon; +1.3 in winter -3 in winter; + 11 in monsoon 2050 50 +1.1 in monsoon; +1.8 in winter -37 in winter; + 28 in monsoon Climate Change Scenarios

8. Key Impacts and Measures Current State of Implementation & Requirements for Improvement Physical adaptations Increasing infrastructure drainage capacity Some bridges and culverts are poorly designed. Water and road infrastructure lacks maintenance Tidal basins New concept: early results are promising Institutional Adaptations Proper O&M arrangements, including establishment of local water management Poor institutional framework. Local government needs to be involved Design criteria for drainage capacity infrastructure Poorly designed and implemented. May be ineffective in coastal zones Adaptation Measures to Mitigate Drainage Congestion in Coastal Areas

9. Key Impacts and Measures Current State of Implementation & Requirements for Improvement Physical adaptations Resuscitation of river networks Could be meaningful in short-term, especially in south-west Surface water flow from upstream e.g. by diversion or withdrawal from rivers Capital intensive, but cross-dams could prevent saline water intrusion. Process should include EIA/SIA Institutional Adaptations Operation of sluices and regulators Poor existing management Water saving techniques Not applied at maximum capacity. Could pose socio-economic problems to farmers Adaptation Measures to Mitigate Salinization in Coastal Areas

10. Key Impacts and Measures Current State of Implementation & Requirements for Improvement Physical adaptations Mangrove greenbelts Started. Needs re-evaluation and continuation Cross dams Needs-assessment necessary for new dams. Adverse effects elsewhere. Could be expensive Institutional Adaptations Protection of mangroves and coastal wetlands Evaluation of activities needed, especially regarding maximizing social benefits Land tenure laws Evaluation needed Adaptation Measures to Improve Morphological Dynamics in Coastal Areas

11. Key Impacts and Measures Current State of Implementation & Requirements for Improvement Physical adaptations Cyclone shelters Already proven. Highly socially acceptable Mangrove greenbelts Started. Needs evaluation Institutional Adaptations Forecasting and dissemination Flood and cyclone forecasting should be location specific Involvement of CBOs and volunteers Should continue Adaptation Measures for Disasters in Coastal Areas

12. Key Risks and Adaptation Measures Current State of Implementation & Requirements for Improvement Physical adaptations Increasing drainage capacity of infrastructure Some bridge and culverts poorly designed. Water and road infrastructure lacks maintenance Storage Not evaluated in terms of recharging aquifers Institutional Adaptations Guidelines to incorporate CC in long-term planning Not existing Reduction of water demand Need better policies on extraction, paying for use, promoting efficient use Adaptation Measures to Mitigate Reduced Freshwater Availability

13. Key Risks and Adaptation Measures Current State of Implementation & Requirements for Improvement Physical adaptations Sufficient road drainage capacity Poorly designed and maintained infrastructure Controlled sedimentation and Land-fills New concepts. Need more understanding Institutional Adaptations Improved drainage criteria infrastructure Not tried yet Participatory management of water resources infrastructure Needs adequate policy reforms Adaptation Measures for Freshwater Drainage Congestion

14. Key Risks and Adaptation Measures Current State of Implementation & Requirements for Improvement Physical adaptations River training and bank protection Poorly done. Costly, but river bank protection is high priority Dredging of navigation channels Limited coverage Institutional Adaptations Guidelines to incorporate CC in long-term planning Not existing Improved monitoring and forecast of changes Needs capacity enhancement Adaptation Measures to Morphological Dynamics for Freshwater Resources

15. Key Risks and Adaptation Measures Current State of Implementation & Requirements for Improvement Physical adaptations Elevated land as flood refuge or food shelters Practiced throughout the country Flood refuge areas e.g. Dhaka city itself Needs evaluation Institutional Adaptations Improved flood warning and forecasting Proved effective. Needs more cooperation and to be location specific Evacuation of vulnerable people and valuables Limited capacity exists. Costly, especially for the very poor Adaptation Measures to Increased Freshwater Flooding

16. Adaptation Measures Current State of Implementation & Requirements for Improvement Physical adaptations Improved irrigation efficiency Poor. Needs institutional support Crop diversification Efforts have met with limited success Institutional Adaptations Training programmes and dissemination Dissemination is poor. Activities need enhancing Research and development of new (salinity and drought resistant) crops Research needs enhancing Adaptation Measures in Agriculture

17. Adaptation Measures Current State of Implementation & Requirements for Improvement Physical adaptations Water treatment facilities Low coverage. Poor quality. Needs expanding Improved sanitation Coverage increasing Institutional Adaptations Surveillance and monitoring of conditions favourable for disease outbreak Unsatisfactory. Needs co-ordination with media to issue early warnings Improve public education, especially in reproductive health Coverage increasing. Quality needs improvement Adaptation Measures in Human Health

18. Adaptation Measures Current State of Implementation & Requirements for Improvement Integrated ecosystem planning and management Not yet practiced. Proposed Coastal Zone Development Program could be a vehicle for this Management of protected areas and 14 ecologically critical areas Improved understanding needed Coastal greenbelt Recently started. Promising results Agro-forestry development Ongoing programs need expansion Adaptation Measures to Protect Ecosystems and Biodiversity

19. Main impacts of climate change • Drainage congestions due to higher sea levels and and flooding • Reduced fresh water availability • Disturbances to morphological processes (mainly in coastal zone) • Increased intensity of disasters (extreme events)

20. Methodological Issues Addressed • Choosing climate change and sea level rise scenarios • Modelling impacts of chosen climate change scenarios on droughts, floods, cyclones • Identifying possible adaptations • Prioritising adaptation actions

21. Process of study • Analysis of climate change impacts using scenarios and models • Identification of most vulnerable sectors • Identification of possible adaptation actions and measures in each sector • Stakeholder–led prioritisation of adaptation actions in each sector • Cross-sectoral linkages identified and discussed with stakeholders

22. Key findings of the study • Bangladesh faces grave socio-ecological risks if it fails to adapt to climate change • Many of the risks are gradual and difficult to differentiate from background variability of climate • Coastal areas of the country are specially at risk • Adaptation to climate change is fundamentally linked to sustainable development efforts of the country

23. Relevance to ongoing policies and programmes • National Water Policy and Water Management Plan • Coastal Zone Management Programme • National Agriculture Development Plan • National Biodiversity Action Plan • Sustainable Environmental Management Programme

24. Impact on Policy makers-1 • Sectoral level • Water Resources • Coastal Resources • Biodiversity • Agriculture • Environment

25. Impact on Policy makers-2 • National Level • Planning • Finance • Foreign Affairs • Prime Minister’s office

26. Impacts on Policy makers-3 • International • COP 5, 6 and 7 • LDC group • Adaptation issues • COP 8 (Delhi)

27. Lessons learned • Technical capacity to do analysis of climate change impacts- Good • Awareness amongst sectoral planners and policy makers-Reasonable • Awareness amongst national policy makers-Low • Strategy for international negotiations-None yet