The Re-Engaged Generation 2004 and Beyond

1. The Re-Engaged Generation2004 and Beyond Peter Levine Ivan Frishberg Deputy Director New Voters Project/ CIRCLE State PIRGs www.civicyouth.org www.pirg.org

2. Election 2004 What Happened?

3. What Happened? Youth turnout was up Youth turnout had been declining since the 1970s—down by about one third Source: Census, analyzed by CIRCLE

4. What Happened? Youth turnout was up • There are two main sets of exit polls for ’04. • Both show substantial increases in youth turnout. • For 18-24s, turnout was up either 5.3 or 10.8 points to either 42% or 48% • Census data will be available in about six months

5. What Happened? Youth turnout was up • Approximately 21 million votes were cast by 18-29 year olds, and 10.5 million were cast by 18-24 year olds, both up sharply from 2000. • Greatest turnout since 1992 and probably since the mid-1970s Based on exit polls and Census population data, analyzed by CIRCLE

6. What Happened? Battleground vs. non-battleground 18-29s. Source: exit polls, analyzed by CIRCLE

7. What Happened? Women and Men . 18-29s. Source: exit polls, analyzed by CIRCLE

8. What Happened? Young voters were interested in this election Source: MTV and MTV/CIRCLE polls

9. What happened? Young people were mobilized and mobilized others Of college students …. 47%—and 57% of those who attend college in a battleground state—said they were contacted by a political party during the campaign 62% said that they had encouraged or helped someone else to vote Source: Niemi/Hanmer survey funded by CIRCLE)

10. What happened? Most college students were permitted to vote Source: Niemi/Hanmer survey funded by CIRCLE)

11. What happened? Youth supported Kerry Source: exit polls

12. What happened? Young people’s issue priorities Source: exit polls

13. What happened? Kerry/Bush vote by college major (current college students. Source: Niemi/Hanmer survey funded by CIRCLE)

14. The Re-Engaged GenerationGen X vs. Gen Y They have different opinions than their older brothers and sisters. In comparing 18–29 year olds to 30–39 year olds, under 30s were: • more likely to identify as liberal by 12 points; • Less likely to call themselves conservative by 7 points; • favored gay marriage by 16 points; • More likely to believe that “government should do more to solve problems” by 5 points.

15. Election 2004 Why did it happen?

16. Why did it happen?This is NOT Generation X. They are different • They voted. • They paid more attention to election news than 2000. • UCLA reports that youth interest in politics is on the rise for the first time in two decades. • Volunteering is up for young people. Over half volunteered in 2002. • They watch less TV • They are more trusting of government and more pro-government

17. Why did it happen?This is NOT Generation X. There are more of them • They are more numerous. • They have a much stronger “generational identity”

18. Why did it happen?Unprecedented efforts to reach them. Investing time and money pays off in new voters. • The six largest non-partisan youth vote organizations, spent $40 million dollars on the most comprehensive young voter mobilization campaign in history. • The Republicans employed the National College Republicans, what many consider the nation’s strongest college organizing force. • The Democrats channeled their donor dollars to 527s, including the Young Voter Alliance and 21st Century Democrats. • Overall trend to face to face grassroots contact has a greater impact on new voters. • First youth targeted ad buys by a presidential campaign.

19. Iowa Case Study: 4 Counties

20. Iowa Case Study: 4 Counties

21. Iowa Case Study: 4 Counties

22. Iowa Case Study: 4 Counties

23. Why did it happen?The media paid attention. Data, research and a coordinated message were vital to changing the story. • Coverage of youth voting was up 120% compared to 2000. • Coverage was more in-depth, focusing on tactics and the research. • Coverage focused on the impact of young voters and their status as an “up for grabs” constituency. • Coverage was cross-cutting – in local newspaper, in major national newspapers, on television, and among the “chattering class.” • But it was also easy to go negative: “Youth vote a bust.”

24. Where do we go from here? Interest + Attention + Infrastructure

25. Where do we go from here?Capitalizing on 2004 • Organizers: Thousands of young people were trained as grassroots organizers. • Technology: Every youth voting effort used technology to track and communicate with the young people they registered and mobilized. • Political interest: Candidates for the two 2005 open governorships have placed college tuition affordability at the top of their election agendas. • Issue Frame: According to both USA Today and The Washington Post, the President’s social security agenda is being framed as a generational issue to build a base of youth voters. • President Bush just announced an $19.3 billion plan to increase Pell Grants.

26. Where do we go from here?Creating a political constituency. • Example: Seniors vote and engage on issues. In turn, politicians pay attention, targeting them in campaigns and when making policy. • Can we do the same for young people?

27. Where do we go from here? Creating a Political Constituency • Register more young people. • Engage on issues. • Mobilize young voters in 2005 and 2006 elections. • Tell the story.