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EXPORTS UNDERCOVERAGE & MISALLOCATION

EXPORTS UNDERCOVERAGE & MISALLOCATION. INTRODUCTION. Important Quality Issue Universal and Persistent Problem Efforts to Measure the Problem Questions. BACKGROUND. Undercoverage Misallocation Canada/U.S. Data Exchange. PROBLEMS WITH TRADE STATISTICS*. Export Undercoverage

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EXPORTS UNDERCOVERAGE & MISALLOCATION

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  1. EXPORTSUNDERCOVERAGE & MISALLOCATION

  2. INTRODUCTION • Important Quality Issue • Universal and Persistent Problem • Efforts to Measure the Problem • Questions

  3. BACKGROUND • Undercoverage • Misallocation • Canada/U.S. Data Exchange

  4. PROBLEMS WITH TRADE STATISTICS* • Export Undercoverage • Misallocated Trade • Timeliness • Valuation • Detailed commodity classification

  5. * CANADIAN TRADE STATISTICS Imports and Exports What they are-How to use them By R.H. COATS, F.S.S. (Hon) Dominion Statistician Ottawa, Canada Journal of the Canadian Bankers’ Association July, 1926

  6. CANADIAN EXPORTS TO MEXICO:CANADIAN STATISTICS VS. MEXICAN STATISTICS

  7. MISALLOCATION • Less Serious as a Problem • Coordinated Conceptual Work Required • Coordinated Measurement Required

  8. INDICATIONS OF THE PROBLEM • Reconciliation Studies • Ad Hoc Port Studies • SNA Balancing Issues • “Best Estimate” for 2000

  9. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS ADJUSTMENT • A BoP adjustment is made for trade to Non-U.S. countries for which export customs documents have not been received.

  10. UNDERCOVERAGE MEASUREMENT - 1 • Sound Methodology • Measure Level and Change • Steps to Eliminate the Problem

  11. UNDERCOVERAGE MEASUREMENT - 2 • Marine Ports – Sample Ship Movements • Airports – Sample Days • Highway Border Crossings – Sample Days • Reconcile Transportation and Trade Documents

  12. UNDERCOVERAGE MEASUREMENT - 3 • Marine and Air Estimates for 2002 • Marine Estimates for 2003/2004 • Air Estimates for 2004 • Highway Estimates

  13. CHANGING CUSTOMS ENVIRONMENT • AMPS Penalties Implemented in Oct. 2002 • No-Load MOUs Being Negotiated with Carriers • Earlier Reporting, More Automation, New Security Measures • CAED Popularity with Exporters

  14. CAED PARTICIPANTS

  15. QUESTIONS: • Is Canada an anomaly because of trading patterns, NAFTA and the data exchange? • Do other OECD countries consider coverage to be a significant quality issue? • Are any other countries attempting to measure the problem? • Are any other countries making a coverage adjustment to BoP or Customs based estimates? • At what stage should coverage adjustments be made - Customs basis, BoP basis, another trade series?

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