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Kerry Sieh TO Annual Meeting 8 November 2006

Behavior of the Sunda Megathrust in Sumatra. Kerry Sieh TO Annual Meeting 8 November 2006. Submerging forest on the Mentawai islands, West Sumatra. Caltech John Galetzka Mohamed Chlieh Don Helmberger

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Kerry Sieh TO Annual Meeting 8 November 2006

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  1. Behavior of the Sunda Megathrust • in Sumatra Kerry Sieh TO Annual Meeting 8 November 2006 Submerging forest on the Mentawai islands, West Sumatra

  2. Caltech John Galetzka Mohamed Chlieh Don Helmberger JP Avouac Aron Meltzner Ozgun Konca Yaru Hsu Mark Simons Andrew Kositsky Indonesian Institute of Sciences Danny Natawidjaja Bambang Suwargadi Nughroho Hanato Dudi Prayudi Imam Suprihanto Scripps Yehuda Bock et al Kyoto University Shigehiro Fujino USC Costas Synolakis Jose Borrero Collaborators

  3. Segments that produce great earthquakes

  4. Segments that are principally aseismic

  5. Down-dip variations

  6. 1797 Segments that produce great earthquakes 1833 from Natawidjaja et al, JGR, 2006

  7. 1797 from Natawidjaja et al, JGR, 2006

  8. 1833 from Natawidjaja et al, JGR, 2006

  9. 1833 from Natawidjaja et al, JGR, 2006

  10. 2004 from Subarya et al., Science, 2006

  11. 2004 from Chlieh et al, BSSA, in press

  12. 2005 from Briggs et al, Science, 2006

  13. 2005 from Briggs et al, Science, 2006 Down-dip variations

  14. 2005 afterslip from Hsu et al, Science, 2006

  15. 1907 tsunami ?

  16. from Natawidjaja et al, JGR, in press An aseismic shallow rupture in about 1962 from paleogeodetic data

  17. An aseismic shallow rupture in about 1962 from paleogeodetic data

  18. Segments that are principally aseismic Simeulue Saddle from Briggs et al, 2006, Science

  19. The Simeulue Saddle ~ 60 km Misalignment of ridge crests from Briggs et al, 2006, Science

  20. Why? The misalignment suggests a structural cause from Briggs et al, 2006, Science

  21. The Equatorial patch

  22. Large emergence during the Mw 7.7 1935 earthquake Small emergences during four giant earthquakes from Natawidjaja, 2003, PhD

  23. The Enggano patch

  24. from Chlieh et al, in preparation

  25. The permanence of patch behavior From Chlieh et al, in preparation

  26. How often does the Mentawai patch rupture? Are couplets like 1797 and 1833 typical?

  27. ~1370 ~1600 1797 & 1833 Paleoseismic records Bulasat Elevation relative to modern sea level Simanganya Years (AD)

  28. ~1370 ~1600 1797 & 1833 Time-predictable? Bulasat Elevation relative to modern sea level Simanganya Years (AD)

  29. Toward the application of basic science for human benefit • Tsunami modeling • Educational outreach For more information, see Sieh 2006 Proc Royal Soc

  30. 10-m slip Nias-Simeulue tsunario 20-m slip Aceh-Andaman tsunario Tsunami modeling

  31. 10-m slip Padang population ~800,000 10-m slip Bengkulu population ~350,000

  32. Our new educational poster for residents of the Sumatran and Mentawai island coasts

  33. Where do we go from here?

  34. From Chlieh et al, in preparation

  35. From Chlieh et al, in preparation

  36. From Chlieh et al, in preparation

  37. From Chlieh et al, in preparation

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