Download
1 / 55
550 likes | 562 Views
This article explores the increasing ideological polarization and partisanship in American politics, and its implications for the 2012 Presidential and Vice Presidential debates.
E N D
Political Polarization and American Politics: Context for the 2012 Election Debates Robert Y. Shapiro Freedom and Citizenship Program October 4, 2012
Ideology, Partisanship, and the Election Debates • What do we mean by ideology in American politics today? • What does it mean to be liberal, conservative, or moderate? • How is this related to the Republican and Democratic parties today? • What are the implications of this for the 2012 Presidential and Vice Presidential debates?
The New Polarized Context: Increasing Ideological Partisanship and Its Consequences? 1. Changes in Partisan Politics in Recent History 2. “Ideological Partisanship” and Issue Opinions 3. Polarization, Ideological Partisanship, and Perceptual Biases of Political Information
Changes in National Partisan Politics Especially Since the 1970s • Chain Reaction: Race and the Transformation of American Politics?
Figure 1 – IDEOLOGICAL TRENDS IN ROLL CALL VOTING IN THE US HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVE, 1971-2002(source: Jacobson, 2005)
Keith Poole and Howard Rosenthal, “DW Nominate Scores” (Congressional Voting): http://voteview.com/polarized_america.htm
Clarity of party differences increased to 63%, as did ability to correctly place Democrats to left of Republicans (Hetherington, APSR, 2001)
“Ideological Partisanship,” Public Opinion and Issue Opinions
Figure 2 – CORRELATION OF PARTY IDENTIFICATION WITH LIBERAL-CONSERVATIVE IDENTIFICATION,1972-2004 (source: Abramowitz & Saunders, 2005)
Figure 3 – PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL (%) BY PARTISANSHIP (source: Green, Palmquist & Schickler, 2002)
Presidential Approval and Partisan Polarization (Source: Brendan Nyhan)
Trends in Partisan Differences on Economic Welfare Issues, NES Items
Trends in Ideological Differences on Economic Welfare Issues, NES Items
Trends in Partisan Differences on Economic Welfare Issues, GSS Items
Trends in Ideological Differences on Economic Welfare Issues, GSS Items
Figure 16A: Mean Position by Partisanship on Racial Issues, GSS Items
Figure 8A: Mean Partisan Position on Whether Abortion Should Be Legal, NES Item
Figure 10: Mean Position by Partisanship on Abortion, GSS Items
Figure 11A: Mean Position by Partisanship on Gay Rights Issues, NES Items
Family Worse Off: By Party ID % who responded “you and your family would be WORSE off if the president and Congress passed health care reform” Sources: Kaiser Family Foundation surveys
Figure 8PARTISAN DIFFERENCES IN SUPPORT FOR THE KOREAN WAR(SOURCE: Mueller, 1973, p.118)
Figure 9 PARTISAN DIFFERENCES IN SUPPORT FOR THE VIETNAM WAR(Source: Mueller, 1973, p.119)
Polarization, Ideological Partisanship, and Perceptual Biases of Political Information
