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How to Measure ANYTHING

How to Measure ANYTHING. The Analytical Process. The analytical process. Think Decompose Simplify Specify Rethink. THINK!. Another way to say this: Think first, calculate second Some Hints What kind of a problem is it? Work backwards Search for analogies. Lateral Thinking 1.

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How to Measure ANYTHING

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  1. How to Measure ANYTHING

  2. The Analytical Process

  3. The analytical process • Think • Decompose • Simplify • Specify • Rethink

  4. THINK! Another way to say this: Think first, calculate second Some Hints What kind of a problem is it? Work backwards Search for analogies

  5. Lateral Thinking 1

  6. Lateral Thinking 2

  7. Lateral Thinking 3

  8. Lateral Thinking 4

  9. Working backward from the conclusion

  10. Working backward from the conclusion

  11. Working backward from the conclusion

  12. Working backward from the conclusion

  13. Decompose • Break the problem into manageable pieces • Map how the pieces fit together • Elements: Alternatives, Consequences, preferences • Identify the pieces you know how to handle (plug values)

  14. Simplify -- KISS • Critical focus: what really matters? • Map back, find shortest path to a conclusion (how much precision do you need?) • Theory (justified belief) • Evidence (warrants, and qualifications)

  15. Specify • Be precise about the elements • Specify your premises, assumptions, constructs • Model (draw a picture -- decision tree is a picture of a decision)

  16. Rethink • Test your conclusions • Flip problem elements around • Violate constraints and assumptions • Sensitivity and a fortiori (breakeven) analysis

  17. Let’s Play Save the World Global warming!

  18. Q&D ABC Global Warming • What is our first step?

  19. All choices presuppose forecasts • All forecasts are more or less uncertain • Relationships • What happens if we do x to y • Run backwards • SONs • History helps • H is just a sample of observations

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