MetroScope RTP Base Case Run 2000 – 2030: How MetroScope Works

1. MetroScope RTP Base Case Run 2000 – 2030: How MetroScope Works A Short Course about MetroScope Operation – What Goes Into MetroScope and What Comes Out Metro DRC August 2003

2. What MetroScope Is Not. • MetroScope is not the way that Metro used to do the RTP allocation. • Attempting to figure out MetroScope in terms of how we used to do things probably confuses far more than it helps. • So first off we need review “what we are not doing this time and why?”

3. Actual and Projected Growth – District 11 Zone Capacity Actual Projected The Old Allocation Method Years 1970 - 2015

4. Good Things About Old Method • Intuitive, easy to understand. • Lends itself to graphic display that contains all the information used in the allocation. • Corresponds to most people’s understanding about the “science” of population allocation. • Gives a growth rate and capacity assumption for each district.

5. Bad Things About the Old Method • Provides no information on the policy, economic, demographic, land use and transportation decisions underpinning the growth trends. • Locks in the “status quo” in the projections. • Each zone is independent. We know nothing about how the zones interact. • No information on demographics, housing, prices or real estate. • Leaves RTP open to legal attack since land use does not reflect transportation and visa – versa.

6. MetroScope to the Rescue • MetroScope corrects all the problems of the traditional trend approaches but… • The real world has a lot of details, so MetroScope has a lot of details and takes some getting used to.

7. MetroScope Made Simpler-Residential Model • Instead of trends MetroScope looks directly at demand and supply factors that matter most in location decision-making. • Demand Factors : Travel time to work, type and price of desired housing, and neighborhood quality – MetroScope allows different demographic groups to value these factors differently. • Supply Factors: Sales price of housing by type, land cost and construction cost, zoning and capacity of zone

8. Demand considers the factors and gives each zone a “score”. Like this: Census Tract 6 = #units- travel time +nhood-price =200-50 +25-100=75 Region score=750 CT6 Share = 75/750=10% Ct6 SFD Demand = 10% X 5000 = 500 Supply considers price, cost and capacity factors and decides to build or not build. Like this: Sales price = $200,000 Cost = $180,000 Zoning capacity=20 net acres @ 4.7 per acre = build 94 units. Total units in CT6= 200 + 94 = 294 Demand and Supply in MetroScope

9. MetroScope Reconciles Demand and Supply • Supply = 294; Demand = 500: Demand and supply do not match; what do we do? • MetroScope changes prices so that finally … • Price = $250,000 • Cost= $210,000 • Capacity= 20 net acres @ 5.0 = 100 units + 200 vintage =300 SFD units • Demand = 290 SFD units

10. MetroScope Residential Factors – Number of Dwelling Units • MetroScope considers housing by type, tenure & value.

11. MetroScope Residential Factors – Neighborhood Value Index

12. Travel Time from CBD

13. Travel Time From Hillsboro

14. Travel Time From Vancouver Mall

15. Travel Time to Work is Important,So Where You Work is Important. Mode and Employment Weighted Access Utility by R Zone Year 2000

16. In MetroScope as in Life – Prices Matter SFD Location Prices – Year 2000 Calibration SFD Average House Price – Year 2000 Census

17. More Prices Rental Location Prices – Year 2000 Calibration Average Apartment Rent – Year 2000 Census

18. MetroScope Suppliers See Capacity Total Residential Capacity by Census Tract Year 2000

19. MetroScope Allows For Very Detailed Demographic and Market Segmentation • MetroScope Demographics: • 8 income classes • 5 age classes • 5 household size classes • 2 classes children<18 present • Total 400 classes in all • MetroScope Housing: • 2 tenure classes • 3 housing type classes • 8 price/rent categories • Total 48 classes in all MetroScope “fuses” the 2 data bases so that each of 400 demographic classes may choose among 48 housing classes for 19,200 choices. For 425 census tracts this yields 8,160,000 possible states for about 800,000 households to occupy.

20. MetroScope Suppliers See Production Costs SFD6 Lot Costs by Census Tract Year 2000

21. MetroScope Suppliers See Production Costs MFR1 Lot Costs by Census Tract Year 2000

22. MetroScope Nonresidential Factors • Demand Factors: • Total employment growth by SIC • Access to households • Access to all employment • Access to similar employment • Square footage and acreage requirements by SIC • Real estate prices of different zones and real estate types • Supply Factors: • Capacity of zone by zoning type and F.A.R category • Building cost in zone by zoning type and F.A.R. category • Demand price in zone by real estate type Business wants to know: Will revenues will cover costs plus profit? Builders want to know: Will rents will cover their building costs?

23. Demand Sees Access to All Employment by E Zone

24. Many Types of Businesses Like to be “Close” Weighted Access for “Durable Manufacturing” – BLS 2000

25. Example of More Close Businesses “Hi-Tech” Manufacturing BLS Year 2000

26. Retail Employment is Both Clustered and Dispersed

27. Wholesale Looks North - South

28. Health Has Both a Regional and a Dispersed Pattern

29. Suppliers Look at Production Costs

30. Suppliers Look at Land Costs as Well Industrial Land Values from Assesssor - 1999

31. More Nonresidential Prices Commercial Land Values from Assessor - 1999

32. So What’s 170,000 Data Points Look Like? MetroScope compared to year 2000 census 400 AIHK classes in 425 census tracts

33. How Many Data Points Are Here? Nonresidential model fit of 72 zones to 15 employment classes

34. MetroScope: Summary • Detailed? Yes, but much less so than the real world. • Advantages – Provides information on how real estate markets and demographic groups respond to land use regulation and transportation investment. • Disadvantages – Not enough zonal detail; users want info at the TAZ level down even to the block level.