1 / 61

Johan van den Berg SANTAM Agriculture

CLIMATE AND AGRICULTURE OUTLOOK FOR 2009/10 AMT PRETORIA 1 October 2009. Johan van den Berg SANTAM Agriculture. ENSO – El Nino Southern Oscillation. Nino areas. La Nina (2007/08). El Nino (2006/07). Outlook for rest of Season. Nino 3.4. Nino 3.4. Nino 3.4. Nino 3.4. South America.

brand
Download Presentation

Johan van den Berg SANTAM Agriculture

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. CLIMATE AND AGRICULTURE OUTLOOK FOR 2009/10 AMT PRETORIA 1 October 2009 Johan van den Berg SANTAM Agriculture

  2. ENSO – El Nino Southern Oscillation

  3. Nino areas

  4. La Nina (2007/08)

  5. El Nino (2006/07)

  6. Outlook for rest of Season

  7. Nino 3.4

  8. Nino 3.4

  9. Nino 3.4

  10. Nino 3.4

  11. South America Australia Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/ssttlon5_c.gif

  12. El Nino La Nina

  13. El Nino La Nina

  14. Outlook 2009/10 (1 October 2009 AMT) Wet Dry Dry El Nino Wet La Nina

  15. Outlook 2008/09 (3 October 2008 AMT – last year) Wet Dry Wet Dry Non event

  16. Outlook 2009/10 (1 October 2009 AMT) Wet Dry Dry El Nino Wet La Nina

  17. Outlook 2009/10 (1 October 2009 AMT) Wet Dry Dry El Nino Wet La Nina Cyclone activity

  18. Tropical cyclone H L Cyclone Water = 18-28oC Water = 10-12oC

  19. Sea surface temperatures

  20. Tropical Cyclone – Top view L H H

  21. 1982/83 1982/83

  22. 1991/92 1991/92

  23. 2006/07 2006/07

  24. 1997/98

  25. Probability (%) for receiving at least median rainfall

  26. September to November – El Nino developing

  27. December to February – El Nino

  28. December tot February – La Nina (2007/08 and 2008/09)

  29. Probability for at least 20mm of rain (in total per) 10 day period Long term average vs 2009/10

  30. Bredasdorp: Probability (%) for at least 20mm rain per 10 day period 2009/10 Average

  31. Humansdorp: Probability (%) for at least 20mm rain per 10 day period 2009/10 Average

  32. Graaff-Reinet: Probability (%) for at least 20mm rain per 10 day period 2009/10 Average

  33. Delmas: Probability (%) for at least 20mm rain per 10 day period 2009/10 Average

  34. Delareyville: Probability (%) for at least 20mm rain per 10 day period Average 2009/10

  35. Upington: Probability (%) for at least 20mm rain per 10 day period 2009/10 Average

  36. Bothaville: Probability (%) for at least 20mm rain per 10 day period 2009/10 Average

  37. Grootfontein Namibia: Probability (%) for at least 20mm rain per 10 day period Average 2009/10

  38. Otjiwarongo Namibia: Probability (%) for at least 20mm rain per 10 day period Gemiddeld 2009/10

  39. Maize production for 2009/10

  40. Indicators for maize production 1. Soil moisture – favourable to ensure good plantings conditions if 20-50mm rain occur before planting date 2. Rain in winter and early spring enabled most farmers to do initial soil preparation very early – ensure that rainfall in pre-plant period can be stored 3. Favourable outlook for 50m to 100mm rain still to come in October/November

  41. Indicators maize production… 4. El Nino effect – dry/hot conditions November-January 5. Western production areas (Free State and Northwest) will most probably be hardest hit 6. Eastern production areas – near normal 7. Tropical cyclones/depressions in February can cause problems 8. Very small reduction in area expected in spite of low prices

  42. Indicators maize production …. 9. RSA maize crop: 9.1 Irrigation 220 000 -250 000 ha under irrigation 12t/ha = 2.5-3.0 million ton 9.2 Rainfed 2.0 million ha 2.5 t/ha = 5 million ton 9.3 Total (worst case scenario) = 7.5 to 8 million tons

  43. Indicators maize production …. 11. Frost - Very high probability for frost damage before 10 April and even before 31 March 2010 – El Nino 12. Price risk more important than production risk – long term average yields not sufficient at current prices to cover input cost

  44. Indicators natural grazing ……. • Rain in Oct/Nov can result in relative favourable conditions for first part of summer • Dry midsummer but especially dry March/April – problems for winter of 2010 • Below normal rainfall for season in total as well as below normal rainfall in critical months of March/April can cause problems for 2010/2011 - lag effect

  45. Indicators wheat production • Free State – October rain • Rain damage possible for Southern Cape in October/November • Frost damage?

  46. Indicators El Nino • High probability to last until at least March/April 2010 • Turning point – February 2010 • Moderate El Nino – 2oC deviation in Nino 3.4 (moderate El Nino sometimes more severe effect than very strong El Nino 1997/98) • Sideways in August/September – inhibit probabilities somewhat • El Nino vs tropical cyclones

  47. Laat ek die Leeuloop nou stap vir stap verduidelik

  48. Haai julle, check daa – dis ‘n leeu!

More Related