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Climate outlook for 2010/11 22 September 2010 Johan van den Berg Santam Agriculture

Climate outlook for 2010/11 22 September 2010 Johan van den Berg Santam Agriculture. Maunder Minimum. Maunder minimum. Little ice age. Maunder minimum. Little ice age. Maunder minimum. Little ice age. Earth. Sun. Magnetic fields. Geomagnetic activity from the sun.

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Climate outlook for 2010/11 22 September 2010 Johan van den Berg Santam Agriculture

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  1. Climate outlook for 2010/11 22 September 2010 Johan van den Berg Santam Agriculture

  2. Maunder Minimum

  3. Maunder minimum Little ice age

  4. Maunder minimum Little ice age

  5. Maunder minimum Little ice age

  6. Earth Sun Magnetic fields

  7. Geomagnetic activity from the sun

  8. Other contributing factors to global and South African weather

  9. Tropical cyclones as part of climate change and climate variability • Cyclones develop over water with high energy (warm) • If water of oceans are warmer then higher frequency of cyclones

  10. Tropical cyclone L H H

  11. Tropical cyclone H L Cyclone Water = 18-28oC Water = 10-12oC

  12. The role of ENSO* on global climate *ENSO = El Nino Southern Oscillation

  13. H L

  14. Nino 3.4

  15. ENSO* and the RSA maize crop * El Nino Southern Oscillation

  16. ?

  17. Summary • El Nino of 2009/10 – abnormal wet • La Nina development for 2010/11 – wet conditions for Summer Rainfall Area and dry for Western Cape • Maize crop – favourable production conditions

  18. Thanks

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