Northwest Geographic Area Coordination Center Predictive Services Spring and Summer 2013

1. Northwest Geographic Area Coordination Center Predictive Services Spring and Summer 2013 Significant Fire Potential Outlook Monday May 6th 2013

2. May 1st Climate summary Temperature observed since January 1st 2013 Temperature departure from average (degrees F)

3. Climate summary Precipitation observed since January 1st 2013 VERY DRY! Accumulated precipitation percentage of normal

4. 48% Precipitation since Jan 1st 2013: Percentage of normal 66% 112% 67% 68% 92% 40% 74% 69% 42% 86% 56% 56% Unusually dry most areas since the first of the year 32% 28% 40% 63% 40% 31% 47% 39% 40% 50% 40% 23% 37%

5. Jan thru April 2013

7. Snow percentage of normal Snowpack diminishing rapidly during the first 10 days of May 2013

8. Temperature and Precipitation Outlook May 2013 Temperatures Precipitation Probably unusually warm over much of the west US Dry trend likely to continue over the Pacific Northwest

9. Temperature and Precipitation Outlook June, July, and August 2013 Temperatures Precipitation Probably unusually warm over much of the western US but unsure over OR/WA Likely continued drier than usual over he Pacific Northwest

10. NWCC Predictive Services outlook for: May 2013 Fire season typically does not begin as early as May. However, the dry trend so far in 2013 has resulted in unusually dry fuels and some potential for wildfires seems likely in particularly dry spots in southern Oregon in May.

11. NWCC Predictive Services outlook for: June 2013 If dry trends continue into June, fire season will begin weeks earlier than usual and the areas with higher potential for large and costly fires expands across much of Oregon and southern Washington.

12. NWCC Predictive Services outlook for: July and August 2013 Typical summer heat and dryness coupled with a dry spring means much of the geographic area experience greater than usual risk of large, costly wildfires in July and August. Concentrated lightning outbreaks are the key.