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REAL ESTATE ECONOMICS CHAPTER 14

REAL ESTATE ECONOMICS CHAPTER 14. CHALLENGE OF THE FUTURE. I. The Challenge of the Future. A. 1. Can anyone define “future? 2.What is the study of the future called? 3.What is a person who studies the field of futuristics called? . 1. “Time that is to be” 2. Futuristics (U.S.)

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REAL ESTATE ECONOMICS CHAPTER 14

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  1. REAL ESTATE ECONOMICS CHAPTER 14 CHALLENGE OF THE FUTURE

  2. I. The Challenge of the Future • A. 1. Can anyone define “future? • 2.What is the study of the future called? • 3.What is a person who studies the field of futuristics called? • 1. “Time that is to be” • 2. Futuristics (U.S.) • Futurology (Europe) • 3. A Futurist Questions Answers

  3. The Challenge of the Future • B. Futurists: • Do not pretend to be all-knowing • They lay no claim to their ability to predict with absolute certainty what the future holds • They attempt to isolate trends and anticipate future direction using available information • C. The Field of Futurism: • Not a place for strange characters. • A highly education group of sociologists, economists, scientists, planners & philosophers who use modern computer technology to study • D. Futurists study trends in different areas. What trends in key areas influence the future use of real estate?

  4. II. Probable Future TrendsA. Natural Resources: Food, Energy • 1. Is supply of natural resources increasing or decreasing? • 2. Are we running short of land? • 3. How can we conserve resources? • 1. Supply is declining. Some are depleted. • 2. Yes in declining land and resources per capita. Increased population, pollution & depletion of key resources leave less. New technology has to find better ways to utilize resources • 3. Recycle. Have less production waste through better technology. Reduce demand with a simpler way of life. Question Answer

  5. A. Natural Resources: Food, Energy • 4. Will government increase or decrease control over conservation of resources? • 5. Will rapid increase of government land use controls continue in the future? • 6. Is this trouble for real estate agents? • 4. Futurists say government will increase control. • 5. Yes. Land is becoming too scarce a resource to treat as a commodity. More land will fall under government control. Less land will remain subject to private real estate markets. 6. In the distant future. New forms of ownership & control over real estate will have certain rights that may be transferred. More leasehold interests. Question Answer

  6. A. Natural Resources: Food, Energy • 7. What is world’s food supply? • 8. Will today’s worthless swamplands be tomorrow’s valuable acquate farms? • 7. Shortages in some areas; surplus in other areas. Technology may help offset shortages. More food on less land as urban sprawl uses up agricultural land. • 8. This is already occurring in some of the South, such as catfish farms. Question Answer

  7. A. Natural Resources: Food, Energy • 9. What is the future outlook for energy? More or less demand? More or less supply? • 10. Higher priced energy eventually changes the design of residential dwellings. What might be some design changes? • 9. Demand for energy will continue to increase. Supply will not keep up with demand. Rolling blackouts! • 10. Smaller? Better insulated? More use of sunlight? Small windmill power plants for homes? Question Answer

  8. B. Population, Family Relationships. Life Styles • 1. Is the growth rate of the world population slowing down? • 2. Is the U. S. population increasing or heading for zero population growth? • 3. What U. S. groups are growing the fastest? • 4. What impact will U. S. population have on future real estate markets? • 1. World population is rapidly growing. • 2. Natural population is slowing as birth rate per family declines. Overall population is growing due to immigrating. • 3. Non-whites; elderly • 4. “Balkanization” separate ethnic regions. Elderly increase construction of smaller, low-maintenance units. Question Answer

  9. B. Population, Family Relationships. Life Styles • 5. Futurists think family relations will continue to change. How? • 6. How will life styles change? Physical & social changes expected? • 7. What impact will these changes have on real estate markets? • 5. Increase: singles & unmarried couples. More female independence. Baby boomers (1945-60); their babies--Gen X; Gen Y. • 6. 90% of people 100+ are female. • 7. More property tailored to demand of various life styles. Question Answer

  10. C. Work Patterns, Leisure, Housing • 1. How will work patterns change? Shorter hours? Fewer work days? • 2. Will workers become more or less involved in their jobs? • 3. Which area of U.S. business is growing the fastest: production, agriculture, services? • 4. What will people do with more free time? • 1. Less physical work time in manufacturing (increase in automation). Extensive mental work & long hours in high-tech fields. • 2. Creation of new & meaningful jobs that interest workers. • 3. Services. • 4. Recreation. “Early outs” seek careers, especially in real estate. Question Answer

  11. C. Work Patterns, Leisure, Housing • 5. Cities of the future: expand or contract? • 6. Living units in the future: multiple? SFR? Mobile? Factory homes? On-Site construction? • 7. Planned communities: Where will housing be built? • 5. Spread of metropolitan to megalopolis. Suburban towns clustered around cities. • 6. Condos dominated new construction in 1980’s. Oversupply & decline in resale prices of condos. Mega homes on postage stamp lots. • 7. Up in space? Underground? Floating on the ocean? Title by air or ground layer. Legal description with depth. Question Answer

  12. D. Communication & Transportation • 1. How will real estate be marketed in a created neighborhood in the world of tomorrow with technology & fantastic communications & transportation systems? • 2. What are some expected transportation changes? • 3. Will people still be forced to live near where they work? • 1. Real estate exchange similar to the stock market? • 2. Moving sidewalks, rapid transit, monorail. Larger, faster aircraft for world travel. • 3. Bullet rail with high-tech work stations? Group work days? Telecommuting from home? Question Answer

  13. E. International Relations, Politics, Government • 1. Further reduction in US military with increased expansion of economic investment & international trade with continued rise in government-supported multi-national corporations. • 2. U S political & government trends: • Rising political strength in suburbs • Increased partnership between government & business in production of goods & services. • Government increase in revenue if citizens demand more government services. • More emphasis on solving urban domestic problems. • More government control over technological inventions. • More coordination between government levels; more federal central power. • Growing confrontation between political extremes.

  14. F. Health Care • 1. Expanding health care insurance for every person with major medical care. • 2. Prevention & cures for cancer & heart disease. • 3. Immunization against most bacteria & viruses. • 4. Increasing number of successful organ transplants. • 5. Increasing number of artificial organs. • 6. Development of ways for the body to regenerate damaged parts. • 7. Development of ways to control the aging process.

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