Public Opinion

1. Public Opinion

2. To Speak with precision of public opinion is a task not unlike coming to grips with the Holy Ghost

3. Historical approaches Ancient Greece • Plato: mass = incompetent • Aristotle: “climate of opinion” norms, values, etc.

4. Reformation (16th century) • Luther challenges papal sociopolitical order • Secular authority, individualism • Machiavelli: public opinion as threat to the state

5. 17th century liberal philosophy • Individuals follow own preferences in religion, economics and politics

6. Enlightenment (late 18th century) • reason and egalitarianism • literary public engages in public debate • emergence of a public sphere • public = learned classes

7. 20th Century • sociological & psychological approaches

8. Early 20th century social conditions: • Urbanization • Labor & Socialist movements • Strikes, riots & other collective behavior

9. Sparked interest in: • Crowds • Mass • Public

10. Crowds • Unity of emotional experience • membership requires only ability to feel & empathize

11. Causes of crowd behavior • anonymity • “invincibility” & lack of personal responsibility • "contagion”of ideas & feelings • suggestibility

12. Mass Aggregation of individuals reacting in response to their own needs

13. Characteristics of mass • anonymous individuals • little interaction or communication • extremely heterogeneous • loosely organized • unable to act in concert • bound by common focus of interest or attention

14. Reasons for rise of the mass Social transformations: • increased mobility • detachment from local life • multiplicity of public issues • expansion of the mass media

15. Public • loosely organized collectivity that arises in the course of discussion surrounding an issue

16. Characteristics of publics • organize in response to an issue • ability to think & reason • engage in rational discourse • bound by disagreement & discussion

17. When public ceases to be critical, it becomes a crowd Crowds create public sentiment rather than public opinion

18. Definitions of Public Opinion

19. 1. Aggregation of individual opinions • Reflects structure of popular elections • Driven by methodology

20. 2. Reflection of majority beliefs • Equivalent of social norms • People conform to majority opinion • Spiral of silence

21. Opinions expressed may not always be honest Overt opinions • Those we are willing to articulate aloud Covert opinions • Those we keep to ourselves

22. 3. Found in clash of group interests • Opinions are cultivated, crystallized & communicated by interest groups • Interests groups act in a more powerful fashion than individuals

23. 4. Media & elite opinion • People lack time & energy to focus on political matters • Leave it to social leaders to define issues & express opinions

24. 5. Public opinion is a fiction • An overused “rhetorical device” lacking empirical support • Is “opinion” informed? • Will people act?

25. Dimensions of public opinion 1. Direction • Where people stand on issues 2. Intensity • How strongly people feel 3. Stability • Consistency over time

26. 4. Information Content • Degree of knowledge people have about issues • Is the opinion rational or uninformed?

27. Psychological perspectives • Examine beliefs, values, attitudes & opinions

28. Beliefs • Assumptions by which we live our lives • Building blocks of attitudes & opinions • Our understanding of the way things are (cognitive) • e.g. “all people are created equal”

29. Values • Ideals • Our understanding of the way things should be • e.g. “we should respect diverse viewpoints”

30. Attitudes • General & enduring feelings about a person, object or issue • Personal likes & dislikes • Predispositions to respond and/or react • E.g. “I distrust censorship”

31. Opinions • Attitudes expressed • Less broad, less enduring & more consciously held than attitudes • E.g. “I oppose limits to the 1st Amendment”

32. Sociological perspectives • Examine the ways in which social forces influence public opinion

33. Attribution theory • How inferences about reasons behind other people’s behaviors or attitudes affect their own agreement w/others

34. We attribute negative behaviors of members of our own group to situational factors • We attribute negative behaviors of other groups to their personal characteristics

35. Social norms • Principles of “right action” that guide, control & regulate acceptable behavior • Products of social interaction • Encourage conformity from group members

36. Perception & opinion formation • The perceptual world is the world of public opinion

37. Socialization • Transmission of culture from one generation to another • Party loyalty is fairly stable over time

38. Social comparison • We compare ourselves with the opinions & beliefs of others • We sometimes use these comparisons to form our own opinions

39. Looking-glass perception • We see significant others as holding the same opinions on issues as we hold

40. Pluralistic ignorance • Inaccurate perception • Individuals underestimate the proportion of others who agree with them • The majority position is incorrectly perceived to be the minority opinion

41. False consensus • Inaccurate perception • Overestimation of the number of people who agree with one’s views • We tend to see our own views as common & appropriate • early anti-abortion movement

42. Third-person effect • People think the media will have greater impact on others than on themselves • Propagandists dream

43. Spiral of silence • People influence others’ willingness to express opinions • Perception of public opinion affects willingness to express own opinions • People may conceal their own opinions