DISASTER PREPAREDNESS A KEY ELEMENT OF BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT

1. DISASTER PREPAREDNESSA KEY ELEMENT OF BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of North Carolina, USA

2. EVERY REGION HAS CITIES AT RISK FROM NATURAL HAZARDS SUB-SAHARA AFRICA CARIBBEAN BASIN EUROPE 200 NATIONS AND 7 BILLION PEOPLE NORTH AMERICA MEDITER- RANEAN SOUTH AMERICA ISLAND NATIONS ASIA

3. FOUR PILLARS OF RESILIENCE • NATURAL HAZARDS • INVENTORY • VULNERABILITY • LOCATION • PREPAREDNESS • PROTECTION • EMERGENCY RESPONSE • RECOVERY IENCE RISK ASSESSMENT ACCEPTABLE RISK RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK GOAL: DISASTER RESILIENCE DATA BASES AND INFORMATION CITY HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

4. DISASTERS OCCUR WHEN---A CITY’S (COMMUNITY’S) PUBLIC POLICIES LEAVE IT … UN—PREPARED FOR THE INEVITABLE NATURAL HAZARDS

5. GLOBAL GOAL:FROM UN—PREPARED TO A STATE OF PREPAREDNESS FOR ALL CITIES AND ALL NATURAL HAZARDS

6. A FOCUS ONHAZARD, VULNERABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENTS

7. PURPOSE: Information from these assessments will facilitate the adoption and implementation of policies that will enable the city to be prepared when it happens.

8. HAZARD AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTS • HAZARD--What are the potential disaster agents of the flood, earthquake, severe windstorm, etc. and how often does each one occur? • VULNERABILITY – Does the city’s built environment have weaknesses with respect to any of the potential disaster agents? What are they?

9. RISK AND LOSS ASSESSMENTS • RISK—What is the chance of loss when the potential disaster agents of a natural hazard interact with vulnerable elements of the built environment of a city? • LOSS OF FUNCTION– The degree and distribution of the losses of function? • SOCIOECONOMIC LOSS-- How many homeless? Jobless, Injured? Dead? And what is the economic loss?

10. HAZARDS EXPOSURE VULNERABILITY LOCATION ELEMENTS OF RISK RISK

11. FLOODS IN S. CA: HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS • WHICH RIVER (S) WILL OVERFLOW ITS BANKS, DIKES, OR LEVEES? • WHEN? • THE DISASTER AGENTS? • BUILT ENVIRONMENT ELEMENTS IN FLOODPLAIN? • EXPECTED DAMAGE? • EXPECTED SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

12. FLOODS IN CHINA: HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS • WHICH RIVER (S) WILL OVERFLOW ITS BANKS, DIKES, OR DAMS? • WHEN? • THE DISASTER AGENTS? • BUILT ENVIRONMENT ELEMENTS IN FLOODPLAIN? • EXPECTED DAMAGE? • EXPECTED SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

13. CAUSES OF DAMAGE AND DISASTER LOSS OF FUNCTION OF STRUCTURES IN FLOODPLAIN INUNDATION INTERACTION WITH HAZARDOUS MATERIALS STRUCTURAL/CONTENTS DAMAGE FROM WATER FLOODS WATER BORNE DISEASES (HEALTH PROBLEMS) CASE HISTORIES EROSION AND MUDFLOWS CONTAMINATION OF GROUND WATER

14. HURRICANE ANDREW: HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS • WHERE WILL THE HUR-RICANE MAKE LANDFALL? • HOW BIG (CAT)? • THE DISASTER AGENTS? • VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? • EXPECTED DAMAGE? • EXPECTED SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

15. TYPHOON TALAS: HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS • WHERE WILL THE TY-PHOON MAKE LANDFALL? • HOW BIG (CAT)? • THE DISASTER AGENTS? • VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? • EXPECTED DAMAGE? • EXPECTED SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

16. CAUSES OF DAMAGE/DISASTER WIND AND WATER PENETRATE BUILDING ENVELOPE UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM FLYING DEBRIS PENETRATES WINDOWS STORM SURGE AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION SEVERE WINDSTORMS IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN CASE HISTORIES POOR WORKMANSHIP FAILURE OF NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS

17. EARTHQUAKE (KOBE): HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS • WHERE WILL THE EARTHQUAKE OCCUR? • WHEN? • HOW BIG? HOW CLOSE? • THE DISASTER AGENTS? • VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? • EXPECTED DAMAGE? • EXPECTED SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

18. EARTHQUAKE (TURKEY): HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS • WHERE WILL THE EARTHQUAKE OCCUR? • WHEN? • HOW BIG? HOW CLOSE? • THE DISASTER AGENTS? • VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? • EXPECTED DAMAGE? • EXPECTED SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

19. CAUSES OF DAMAGE/DISASTER INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING SOIL AMPLIFICATION PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SOIL FAILURE AND SURFACE FAULTING ) IRREGULARITIES IN MASS, STRENGTH, AND STIFFNESS EARTHQUAKES FLOODING FROM TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP AND SEICHE CASE HISTORIES POOR DETAILING OF STRUCTURALSYSTEM FAILURE OF NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS

20. TSUNAMI (JAPAN): HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS • WHERE WILL THE TSUNAMI OCCUR? • WHEN? • HOW BIG? HOW CLOSE? • THE DISASTER AGENTS? • VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? • EXPECTED DAMAGE? • EXPECTED SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

21. TSUNAMI (INDONESIA): HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS • WHERE WILL THE TSUNAMI OCCUR? • WHEN?, HOW BIG? HOW CLOSE? • THE DISASTER AGENTS? • VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? • EXPECTED DAMAGE? • EXPECTED SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

22. CAUSES OF DAMAGE/DISASTER HIGH VELOCITY IMPACT OF INCOMING WAVES INLAND DISTANCE OF WAVE RUNUP VERTICAL HEIGHT OF WAVE RUNUP INADEQUATE RESISTANCE OF BUILDINGS TSUNAMIS FLOODING CASE HISTORIES NO WARNING, OR INADEQUATE WARNING PROXIMITY TO SOURCE OF TSUNAMI

23. VOLCANIC ERUPTION (CHILE): HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS • WHEN WILL THE ERUPTION OCCUR? • DURATION? • HOW BIG (VEI)? • THE DISASTER AGENTS? • VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? • EXPECTED DAMAGE? • EXPECTED SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

24. VOLCANIC ERUPTION (ICELAND): HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS • WHEN WILL THE ERUPTION OCCUR? • DURATION? • HOW BIG (VEI)? • THE DISASTER AGENTS? • VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? • EXPECTED DAMAGE? • EXPECTED SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

25. CAUSES OF DAMAGE/DISASTER PROXIMITY TO LATERAL BLAST IN PATH OF PYROCLASTIC FLOWS IN PATH OF FLYING DEBRIS (TEPHRA) IN PATH OF VOLCANIC ASH (AVIATION) VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS IN PATH OF LAVA AND PYROCLASTIC FLOWS CASE HISTORIES IN PATH OF LAHARS IGNORING WARNING TO EVACUATE

26. VOLCANO HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS) • LAVA FLOWS • LAHARS • EARTHQUAKES (related to movement of lava) • “VOLCANIC WINTER”

27. WILDFIRE (GREECE): HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS • WHEN AND WHY WILL THE WILDFIRE OCCUR? • LOCATION? • DURATION? • THE DISASTER AGENTS? • VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? • EXPECTED DAMAGE? • EXPECTED SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

28. WILDFIRE (RUSSIA): HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS • WHEN AND WHY WILL THE WILDFIRE OCCUR? • LOCATION? • DURATION? • THE DISASTER AGENTS? • VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? • EXPECTED DAMAGE? • EXPECTED SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

29. CAUSES OF DAMAGE AND DISASTER LIGHTNING STRIKES MANMADE FIRES PROXIMITY OF URBAN AREA TO THE WILDLAND FIRE WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION (DAY/NIGHT) WILDFIRES DRYNESS DISASTER LABORATORIES HIGH TEMPERATURES LOCAL FUEL SUPPLY

30. LANDSLIDES (CHINA): HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS • WHEN AND WHY WILL THE LANDSLIDE OCCUR? • LOCATION AND SIZE? • THE DISASTER AGENTS? • VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? • EXPECTED DAMAGE? • EXPECTED SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

31. LANDSLIDES (TAIWAN): HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS • WHEN AND WHY WILL THE LANDSLIDE OCCUR? • LOCATION AND SIZE? • THE DISASTER AGENTS? • VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? • EXPECTED DAMAGE? • EXPECTED SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

32. HAZARD MAPPING AND RISK MODELING EXAMPLE: HAZUS MULTIPLE-HAZARDE

33. OBJECTIVE Clarify the capabilities and levels of analysis of the HAZUS-MH Risk Model

34. OTHER HAZARDS • NOTE: HAZUS has now been extended to include floods and severe windstorms, along with earthquakes..

35. HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE • The HAZUS-MH Earthquake Program is a comprehensive, state-of-the-art, lossestimation methodologythat was established in the early 1980’s • It is the standard for earthquake loss estimation by governments in earthquake-prone regions of the United States.

36. EVENT VULNERABILITY EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS EXPECTED LOSS EXPOSURE PEOPLE STRUCTURES PROPERTY ENVIRONMENT INFRASTRUCTURE LOSS ESTIMATION

37. HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE • More than 137 earthquake and software professionals contributed to the development of the program through working groups, oversight groups, pilot studies in Boston, MA and Portland, OR, and calibration studies combining data and experience.

38. HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE • Loss estimation for earthquakes involves the probabilistic integration of interlinked parameters of the community’s hazard and built environments into a comprehensive risk model.

39. OTHER EARTHQUAKE LOSS MODELS • Private-sector companies (e.g.,insurers and large business enterprises) have their own proprietary loss estimation models, which may differ from HAZUS in some areas of analysis..

40. GOOD DECISION MAKING • HAZUS -- Earthquake provides a reliable tool for loss estimation, which is essential for good decision making about earthquake resilience at the local, region, state, and national levels of government.

41. STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE • HAZUS is “a work in progress” that can only get better with time as new data (e.g., fragility curves for some elements of the community’s hazard and built environment)and new experiences are added after posteartquake studies of future damaging earthquakes.

42. STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE • HAZUS will provide relative answers, but not absolute answers for all communities and all situations, but like the “Law of large numbers” underpinning the business of insurance, the answers will converge and provide a reasonable solution.

43. STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE • HAZUS develops a loss estimation scenario that is based on specific information on the community’s hazard and built environments. • The latter data are provided by the user.

44. SOME DATA ON A COMMUNITY’S BUILT ENVIRONMENT MAY NOT BE AVAILABLE

45. STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE • HAZUS contains generic default data bases if the community does not have all of the required information on parameters characterizing its hazard, exposure, and vulnerability.

46. STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE • HAZUS’ default data bases are linked to good performance in past earthquakes (i.e., to the adoption and enforcement of building codes and lifeline standards).

47. STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE • HAZUS’ default databases include: characterization of the hazard, characterization of elements of the exposure, characterization of elements of vulnerability, and characterization of parameter uncertainty, BUT not community-specific databases.

48. STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE • HAZUS provides the user with the option of replacing the basic databases (i.e., the “default” databases) with community-specific databases.

50. STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE • HAZUS is most accurate when applied to a class of buildings and infrastructure in the community that is very similar to those in the default database, and least accurate when applied to a specific building or a specific element of infrastructure.