DISASTER PREPAREDNESS A KEY ELEMENT OF BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT

1. DISASTER PREPAREDNESSA KEY ELEMENT OF BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of North Carolina, USA

2. A FOCUS ONWHAT HAS BEEN LEARNED FROM DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIOS NOTE: THE TECHNIQUE WAS EXPLAINED LAST LECTURE

3. EXAMPLES: SCENARIO EARTHQUAKES IN CALIFORNIA, MID-AMERICA, AND TOKAI AREA, JAPAN

4. NOTE: HAZARD MAPSARE BASED ON A PROBABILISTIC MODEL

5. NOTE: RISK MODELING IS BASED ON HAZUS-MH(OR A COMPARABLE MODEL)

7. MID-AMERICA GROUND SHAKING HAZARD MAP

8. PGA MAP: JAPAN (GSHAP)

9. PURPOSE: Information from disaster scenarios will facilitate the adoption and implementation of policies and plans to enable a city to protect essential facilities and critical infrastructure

10. FOUR PILLARS OF RESILIENCE • EARTHQUAKES • INVENTORY • VULNERABILITY • LOCATION • PREPAREDNESS • PROTECTION • EMERGENCY RESPONSE • RECOVERY IENCE RISK ASSESSMENT ACCEPTABLE RISK RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK GOAL: DISASTER RESILIENCE DATA BASES AND INFORMATION CITY HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

11. DISASTERS OCCUR WHEN---A CITY’S (COMMUNITY’S) PUBLIC POLICIES LEAVE IT … UN—PREPARED FOR THE INEVITABLE NATURAL HAZARDS

12. GLOBAL GOAL:FROM UN—PREPARED TO A STATE OF PREPAREDNESS FOR ALL CITIES AND ALL NATURAL HAZARDS

13. DISASTER SCENARIOS CAN PROVIDE POLICY BREAKTHROUGHS • With a disaster scenario, a city’s leaders can make the decisions on what it will do to control and reduce its perceived risks (e.g., by adopting and implementing policies such as building codes, and lifeline standards to protect, and retrofit and rehabilitation to protect and sustain).

14. DISASTER SCENARIOS CAN PROVIDE POLICY BREAKTHROUGHS • Much of the UNCERTAINTY in future emergency response and recovery phases will be eliminated if we can make the VIRTUAL REALITY of an EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO look like REALITY that we are prepared to cope with.

15. EXAMPLE ONE: EARTHQUAKE DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO FOR SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

16. (SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA): EARTH-QUAKE DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO • WHERE WILL THE EARTHQUAKE OCCUR? • HOW BIG? HOW CLOSE? • HOW DEEP? WHEN? • THE DISASTER AGENTS? • VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? • EXPECTED DAMAGE? • EXPECTED SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

17. SCENARIO EARTHQUAKES FOR CALIFORNIA ADVANCE PLANNING SO THAT CALIFORNIA WILL BE READY WHEN THE INEVITABLE “BIG ONES” RECUR Source: US Geological Survey

18. California Catastrophic Disaster Planning Scenario • Major impact to largemetropolitan areas • Consequences would eclipse Katrina • Large area of impact - 155,959 Sq. Miles • Highly populated areas - 36M+ • Significant earthquake risk throughout State 18

19. California Catastrophic Disaster Planning Scenario • Tsunami risk • Mass Evacuation • Significant infrastructure impacts • Response problems due to roadway collapse/blockage • Estimated loss -- > $400B 19

20. A HAYWARD FAULT SCENARIO Because of its location in the densely populated Bay area of 7 million people,an earthquake on the Hayward fault is likely to be one of the nation's biggest natural disasters.

21. HAYWARD FAULT ZONE

22. A HAYWARD FAULT SCENARIO A Hayward fault earthquake potentially affects 5 million people, and damages homes, schools, senior centers, hospitals, businesses, the Bay bridge, andthe campus of UC Berkeley.

23. HAYWARD FAULT SCENARIO

24. IMPACTS:SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA A M 7.0 earthquake on the Hayward fault will cause an estimated $210 billion dollars in damage. The region'stransportation infrastructure and water delivery systems will take a major hit.

25. EXAMPLE TWO: EARTHQUAKE DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO FOR LOS ANGELES AREA

26. (LAS ANGELES AREA): EARTHQUAKE DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO • WHERE WILL THE EARTHQUAKE OCCUR? • HOW BIG? HOW CLOSE? • HOW DEEP? WHEN? • THE DISASTER AGENTS? • VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? • EXPECTED DAMAGE? • EXPECTED SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

27. SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AREA

28. QUAKE SHAKEOUT SCENARIO The goal in the ShakeOut Scenario is to identify the physical, social and economic consequences of a major earthquake in southern California , and in so doing, enable end users to identify what they can change now—before the earthquake—in order to avoid catastrophic impactsafter the inevitable earthquake occurs.

29. GROUND SHAKING 60 SECONDS AFTER FAULT RUPTURES

30. IMPACTS The magnitude 7.8 ShakeOut earthquake causes about 1,800 deaths and $213 billion of economic losses.

31. IMPACTS The estimates of about 1800 deaths and $213 billion of economic losses indicate that much more retrofitting is still needed to protect and sustain.

32. EXAMPLE THREE: EARTHQUAKE DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO FOR MEMPHIS, TN AREA

33. (MEMPHIS, TN AREA): EARTHQUAKE DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO • WHERE WILL THE EARTHQUAKE OCCUR? • HOW BIG? HOW CLOSE? • HOW DEEP? WHEN? • THE DISASTER AGENTS? • VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? • EXPECTED DAMAGE? • EXPECTED SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

34. NEW MADRID SEISMIC ZONE SCENARIOJUNE 2010 AND MARCH 2008 ASSUMPTIONS: M7.7 2:00 AM http://mae.cee.illinois.edu/news/reportusa2.html

35. NEW MADRID SEISMIC ZONE The New Madrid Seismic Zone, which covers parts of eight states: Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Kentucky, and Tennessee, was the source of four great earthquakes (M8.0 to 8.8) in 1811-1812.

36. ASSUMPTIONS OF SCENARIO Damage and loss estimates and the planning assumptions are predicated on the occurrence of a magnitude 7.7 earthquake at 2:00 am.

37. ASSUMPTIONS OF SCENARIO The epicenter is assumed to be located approximately 33 miles North North-West of Memphis, TN.

38. New Madrid Seismic Zone Catastrophic Disaster Planning Scenario Approximately 12 million people at high risk • Consequences eclipse Katrina • impact area - 126,575 Sq Miles • 44M people in eight-State region • Multiple jurisdictions and Governors St. Louis 1.5-2 Million IL IN MO KY TN Rural Pop. 8-9 million 160–200 Cities AR AL MS Memphis 1-1.5 Million Directly Impacted States Indirectly Impacted States 38

39. New Madrid Seismic Zone Catastrophic Disaster Planning Scenario Approximately 12 million people at high risk • Significant loss of infrastructure • Response problems hindered by long aftershock sequence • Estimated loss -- $300B+ • Severe weather & evacuation issues St. Louis 1.5-2 Million IL IN MO KY TN Rural Pop. 8-9 million 160–200 Cities AR AL MS Memphis 1-1.5 Million Directly Impacted States Indirectly Impacted States 39

40. New Madrid Seismic Zone Catastrophic Disaster Planning Scenario Approximately 12 million people at high risk • Nearly 86,000 total casualties • 3,500 fatalities • Estimated loss -- $300B+ St. Louis 1.5-2 Million IL IN MO KY TN Rural Pop. 8-9 million 160–200 Cities AR AL MS Memphis 1-1.5 Million Directly Impacted States Indirectly Impacted States 40

41. SCENARIO IMPACTS 715,000 buildings will sustain heavy damage , and 100,000 will be completely destroyed from strong ground shaking.

42. SCENARIO IMPACTS Utilities will be interrupted, leaving 2.5 MILLION without power, and water, gas, and waste disposal outages will occur over a wide area.

43. SCENARIO IMPACTS Transportation systems (highways, bridges, airports, river traffic) throughout the region will lose their function.

44. SCENARIO IMPACTS: TN The State of Tennessee will incur the highest level of damage and social impacts, with over 250,000 buildings moderately or severely damaged.

45. SCENARIO IMPACTS: TN Over 260,000 people will likely be displaced and over 80,000 casualties (injuries and fatalities) are expected.

46. SCENARIO IMPACTS: TN Total direct economic losses surpass $56 billion.

47. EXAMPLE FOUR: EARTHQUAKE DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO FOR TOKYO, JAPAN AREA

48. (TOKYO, JAPAN AREA): EARTHQUAKE DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO • WHERE WILL THE EARTHQUAKE OCCUR? • HOW BIG? HOW CLOSE? • HOW DEEP? WHEN? • THE DISASTER AGENTS? • VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? • EXPECTED DAMAGE? • EXPECTED SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

49. EARTHQUAKE DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIOTOKAI, JAPAN EARTHQUAKE ZONE160 KM FROM TOKYO PREPARING FOR AN EMINENT DISASTER

50. REGIONAL MAP