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An Econometric Approach

The Determinants of the Severity of Alcohol Abuse and Risk of Alcohol Abuse Disorder in South Africa. An Econometric Approach. Motivations. Better inform efforts directed at ameliorating or preventing harm associated with alcohol abuse disorder and comorbid disorders for research

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An Econometric Approach

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  1. The Determinants of the Severity of Alcohol Abuse and Risk of Alcohol Abuse Disorder in South Africa An Econometric Approach

  2. Motivations • Better inform efforts directed at ameliorating or preventing harm associated with alcohol abuse disorder and comorbid disorders for research • Provide latent research to be made available for other academics investigating similar phenomena to the same end

  3. Problems Associated with Alcohol abuse • Health effects and the burden of disease • Increased mortality and morbidity and drinking to intoxication • Foetal Alcohol Syndrome (SA has highest in the world) • Social costs • Parental performance • Risky sexual behaviour • Potential link to criminal behaviour • Etc.

  4. International literature • Gender • Age • Impulsivity • Anxiety • Depression

  5. South African studies • None have attempted to employ regression analysis previously (to my knowledge) • Most have relatively small sample sizes • Bivariate analysis most common • Hard to separate environmental factors from race and cultural factors in some of these studies • Similar findings to international literature in parts • However, many of the studies avoid referral bias (done on a national scale indiscriminately) • Problems • Heterogeneous alcohol screens • Lack of controls • Small samples

  6. Data • The dataset consists of responses garnered from a survey entitled “National Prevalence study of Gambling Behaviour and Problem and Pathological Gambling in South Africa.” • 3000 respondents, representative of metropolitan South Africa • Random, clustered sampling techniques • ≥18 years of age

  7. Summary stats I

  8. Methodology • Ran a number of non-parametric tests to assess if there were statistically significant differences between values in categorical variables • TOBIT and PROBIT regressions incrementally introducing new variable sets

  9. Tobit and Probit • TOBIT • Censored regression model which excludes teetotallers • PROBIT • Aimed at discovering the propensity to become an alcohol abuser • Dichotomous dependent variable

  10. Discussion and questions

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