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An econometric model for international tourism flows to Spain

An econometric model for international tourism flows to Spain. Applied Economics Letters, 2000, 7, 525-529. Teresa Garín Muñoz Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia, Madrid, Spain. e-mail: tgarin@sr.uned.es Teodosio Pérez Amaral

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An econometric model for international tourism flows to Spain

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  1. An econometric model for international tourism flows to Spain Applied Economics Letters, 2000, 7, 525-529.

  2. Teresa Garín Muñoz • Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia, Madrid, Spain. • e-mail: tgarin@sr.uned.es • Teodosio Pérez Amaral • Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Spain • e-mail: teodosio@ccee.ucm.es

  3. Outline • Abstract • I. Introduction. • II. The model and the data. • III. Empirical results. • IV. Conclusions.

  4. I. Introduction. • 1997, tourism, 10.5% GDP • USA 77 BILLION DOLLARS • ITALY 30 • SPAIN 28 • Forecasting studies, Spain: • Almagro (1979), • Padilla (1988)

  5. International demand studies • Elasticities, policies, scenarios, • Bakkal, 1991; • Loebb, 1982; • Summary, 1987; • Syriopoulos and Sinclair, 1993; • Witt and Martin, 1987.

  6. Outline • Abstract • I. Introduction. • II. The model and the data. • III. Empirical results. • IV. Conclusions.

  7. II. The model and the data. • We use an unbalanced panel data set consisting of 17 routes of tourism over a period of 11 years (1985-1995). • Annual data.

  8. TABLE 1, % part. by country

  9. Determinants of tourism • income, • price, • exchange rate, • transportation costs, • population,

  10. LTOURit = αi + β1 LGNPit + β2 LEXit + β3 LPRit + β4 D91t + uit • β1, β2 > 0 • β3, β4 < 0

  11. Where the subindex i is for countries, t is for time and L denotes natural logarithms (log). And: • L TOUR i t is the log of the number of nights spent in Spanish hotels by tourists from country i during year t. In per capita terms.

  12. L GNP i tlog of the Gross National Product (in PPP dollars) of country i during year t. Expressed in per capita terms. • L EX i tlog of the number of pesetas per unit of currency of country i during year t. • L PR t log of the price index of tourist services in Spain divided by the CPI of each country. • D91 t dummy variable for the Gulf War that takes the value 1 in 1991 and 0 elsewhere. • u i t Random error term.

  13. Outline • Abstract • I. Introduction. • II. The model and the data. • III. Empirical results. • IV. Conclusions.

  14. 3. EMPIRICAL RESULTS • Selected Model: within. • Income elasticity: 1.41. • Exchange rate elasticity: 0.50. • Price elasticity: -0.30. • D91: -0.15.

  15. Outline • Abstract • I. Introduction. • II. The model and the data. • III. Empirical results. • IV. Conclusions.

  16. IV. Conclusions • Income, • Price, • Exchange rate, • Gulf War, • Expo and Olimpic Games, 92.

  17. Other possible factors • Age distribution, • Income distribution, • Quality, • Price of alternative destinations, • Education, • Leisure and business,

  18. However • Useful for assessing scenarios, • As a starting point, • More desagregated data. • Comparable to many international studies.

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