2011 NGSO Commercial Launch Forecast Draft Report

1. 2011 NGSO Commercial Launch ForecastDraft Report 11 May 2011 Kate Maliga Program Manager The Tauri Group kate.maliga@taurigroup.com Cover art by Phil Smith

2. Agenda • Methodology • Overview • NGSO service segments • Forecast trends • Summary

3. Forecast Methodology • What is NGSO? • Non-geosynchronous orbits, including LEO, MEO, highly elliptical orbits, and those beyond GEO • Purpose of forecast • Help U.S. industry, U.S. Government, and FAA/AST understand the scope and trends of NGSO commercial space launch • 10-year forecast • Based on research and discussions with industry and government • Analysis considers the following factors: • Financing • Regulatory developments • Spacecraft manufacturing and launch services contracts • Investor confidence • Competition from space and terrestrial sectors • Overall economic conditions

4. Forecast Methodology (cont’d) • NGSO forecast considers five service segments: • Commercial Telecommunications • Commercial Remote Sensing • Science and Engineering • Basic and Applied Research • Space Technology Test and Demonstration • Commercial Cargo and Crew Transportation Services • Cargo • Human Spaceflight • Other Payloads Launched Commercially

5. 2011 NGSO Forecast Summary – Launches

6. 2011 NGSO Forecast Summary – Launches and Payloads

7. 2011 NGSO Forecast Summary – Payloads

8. 2011 NGSO Forecast Summary – Commercial Telecommunications

9. 2011-2020 NGSO Commercial Telecommunication Launch Forecast

10. 2011 NGSO Forecast Summary – Commercial Remote Sensing

11. 2011-2020 NGSO Commercial Remote Sensing Launch Forecast

12. 2011 NGSO Forecast Summary – Science and Engineering

13. 2011-2020 NGSO Science and Engineering Launch Forecast

14. 2011 NGSO Forecast Summary – Commercial Cargo and Crew Transportation

15. 2011-2020 NGSO Commercial Cargo and Crew Transportation Launch Forecast • Forecast detail • FY 2012 NASA traffic model is primary data source (from Feb 2011) • NGSO forecast includes 2 COTS SpaceX missions and 1 CRS SpaceX flight in 2011 • First Taurus II test flight counted in Science & Engineering segment

16. 2011-2020 NGSO Commercial Cargo and Crew Transportation Launch Forecast

17. 2011 NGSO Forecast Summary – Other Payloads Launched Commercially

18. Forecast Trends • Differences from 2010 NGSO forecast • Reasons for difference • Delayed timetables for deploying large telecommunications constellations • New plans for deploying large constellations as announced will require a greater number of launches than expected (Iridium) • Successful initial NASA COTS demonstration flights, launch contracts signed, and the NASA ISS traffic model published in 2011

19. Forecast Summary 276 payloads = 130 commercial launches Almost half of commercial launches will be for commercial cargo and crew services to ISS during forecast period 2 (1%) 1 (1%) 19 (15%) 60 (22%) 10 (8%) 60 (46%) 118 (43%) 82 (30%) 40 (31%) 14 (5%)

20. Thank you – we look forward to receiving your inputs! Kate Maliga Program Manager The Tauri Group kate.maliga@taurigroup.com