30th USAEE/IAEE North American Conference, October 9-12, 2011, Washington, DC

1. 1 Economic Uncertainty in Subsurface CO2 Storage: Geological Injection Limits and Consequences for Carbon Management Costs Peter H. Kobos, Jesse D. Roach, Jason E. Heath, Thomas A. Dewers, Sean A. McKenna, Geoff T. Klise, Jim Krumhansl, David J. Borns, Karen A. Gutierrez Sandia National Laboratories and Andrea McNemar National Energy Technology Laboratory 30th USAEE/IAEE North American Conference, October 9-12, 2011, Washington, DC Acknowledgements: This work is developing under the funding and support of the National Energy Technology Laboratory. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000. Working Results. SAND2011-7325C.

2. Water, Energy and CO2 Sequestration (WECS) Model: 2 • H2O Treatment & Use (1) CO2 Capture • Formation Assessment • & CO2 Storage (3) H2O Extraction Geologic Saline Formation

3. 3 Project Timeline & Goals Timeline 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 • Completed Phase I: Developed a Test Case Model (WECS) • Completed Phase II: Additional TOUGH2 Analysis • Completed Phase III: Developed a single power plant to any saline formation sink in the U.S. systems calculator • Phase IV & V: • Expanding the role of uncertainty within the model • Several order of magnitude variation in key geologic parameter (permeability) • Incorporating uncertainties into costs

4. 4 WECSsim Modular Structure Power Plant Module • Treated cooling H2O • Energy required for H2O extraction and treatment • Plant type • CO2 generated Various NETL reports inform the Power Plant and Carbon Capture Modules • Base LCOE • CO2capture & compression costs • Water extraction transport and treatment costs Power Cost (Integrating Module) Extracted Water Module CO2Capture Module • Parasitic energy • Water demand change • CO2transport & sequestration costs NatCarb Database polygon analysis, well data analysis, and heterogeneous formation characterization inform the CO2Sequestration Module Geologic CO2 Sequestration Module NETL reports, publically available reports, and well analysis inform the Extracted Water and Power Cost Modules • Extracted H2O capacity • Extracted H2O quality • Mass CO2 to be sequestered

5. 5 Geological CO2 Storage Database Challenges Coal Power Plant Gas Power Plant Well Well selected on depth and salinity criteria 325 down selected regions original NatCarb Atlas data

6. 6 Distribution of Geologic Porosity

7. 7 Injectivity equation: permeability sampled from 4 Rock Types

8. 8 Uncertainty and the Well Injectivity Index I well injectivity index; measure of the “ease” of injecting CO2 into the well qvolumetric injection rate ΔPthe pressure gradient Reservoir volume Radial flow from the well (Bryant and Lake, 2005)

9. 9 WECSsim Results:Permeability and Costs

10. 10 WECSsim Results:Injection Costs and Formation Types

11. 11 WECSsim Results:Injection Costs Relative to Total Costs

12. 12 WECSsim Results:Similar Full Economic Analysis Underway $ Avoided CO2 Emissions Note: Illustrative Example at this time

13. 13 Conclusions • Low CO2 injection rates results in higher costs • Low injectivity requires more injection wells and therefore higher costs • Accurate Site Permeability Characterization is key • Importance of High Quality Saline Reservoirs • High permeability reservoirs with low injection costs (< $1/tonne) represent < ~10% of the 325 formations • Scale-up challenge • Using a national-level systems approach • The mix of reservoirs of different quality is a major factor that will control ‘supply’ of CO2 storage

14. 14 Ongoing and Future Work • CO2 injectivity-brine extractivity and heterogeneity • i.e., “How do injection rates improve with brine extraction?” • Spatial distribution of CO2 sources to sinks • i.e., “Are the high quality sinks accessible to large sources?” • National Level Supply Assessment • i.e., “How much low-cost CO2 storage exists in the U.S.?”

15. 15 For Further Information: Initial Framework Description Kobos, P.H., Cappelle, M.A., Krumhansl, J.L., Dewers, T.A., McNemar, A., Borns, D.J., 2011. Combing power plant water needs and carbon dioxide storage using saline formations: Implications for carbon dioxide and water management policies. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, 5, 899-910. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000. Working Results.

16. 16 Data and Analysis Product NatCarb data & analysis 1. NatCarb 2008 geospatial database estimates (publically available) WECSsim interpretation of U.S. deep saline formation resource Backup Slides: Assessing U.S. deep saline formations 2. NatCarb partnerships (direct communication) NatCarb well data SNL and publically available data & analysis Other publically available data and SNL studies 3. Parameter estimation from well data Expert opinion 4. Geologic classification of polygons to reduce computational costs

17. 17 Limited Saline Formation Data

18. 18 Gulf coast outliers Why do the Gulf Coast formations lie above the carbonate formations?

19. 19 Gulf coast outliers

20. 20 Gulf coast outliers

21. 21 Gulf coast outliers id#2 id#165