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Numerical Modeling at NCEP/EMC: Progress and Plans

N C E P. Numerical Modeling at NCEP/EMC: Progress and Plans. Geoff DiMego Mesoscale Modeling Branch Geoff.DiMego@noaa.gov 301-763-8000 ext7221 30 November 2010. T O P I C S. Operational Model Suite Overview Central Computer System (CCS) Acquisition Status

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Numerical Modeling at NCEP/EMC: Progress and Plans

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  1. N C E P Numerical Modeling at NCEP/EMC:Progress and Plans Geoff DiMego Mesoscale Modeling Branch Geoff.DiMego@noaa.gov 301-763-8000 ext7221 30 November 2010

  2. T O P I C S • Operational Model Suite Overview • Central Computer System (CCS) Acquisition Status • Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) • Global Forecast System (GFS) • HiResWindow • NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) • North American Mesoscale (NAM) • NARRE, HRRRE • SREF, VSREF • RTMA, Analysis of Record

  3. Dispersion, Ash, Smoke & Dust ARL’s HYSPLIT Severe Weather NMM + ARW [+SREF = HREF] Air Quality NAM+ EPA’s CMAQ Rapid Refresh GSD’s RUC moving to WRF-ARW for RR The NCEP Operational Model SuiteItems in RED are Meso Branch Concerns Oceans HYCOM WaveWatch III Climate CFS Coupled Hurricane GFDL HWRF (NMM) MOM3 ~3B+ Obs / Day Mostly Satellite +Radar North American Mesoscale NMM Global Forecast System Global Data Assimilation Fire Weather : NMM Regional Data Assimilation Short-Range Ensemble Forecast DGEX NMM NMM + ARW + ETA + RSM North American Ensemble Forecast System GFS, Canadian Global Model, FNMOC + VSREF RUC + NAM NOAH Land Surface Model R T M A

  4. CCS Acquisition Status Draft Request for Proposals (RFP) was posted to FedBizOpps 12 Nov 2011 Highlights (& LOWLIGHTS!) 10 year contract: 5-yr Base, 3-yr option & 2-yr transition option Vendors must provide two facilities One must be at least 120 miles from DC Both facilities must be at least 120 miles apart Initial delivery will be the same size as the current CCS No increase in compute capacity of system or disk storage Additional funding is being pursued, but has not yet been identified Any system architecture will be considered Unix (vendor flavor) or Linux based Homogeneous or heterogeneous Current contract has been extended for 2 years (FY12+FY13) for transition One year to bring the two facilities on-line One year for transition Provides for NO increase in compute capacity or storage

  5. CCS Acquisition Status Remaining Schedule Vendor responses to draft RFP – 30 November 2010 Industry Day – 6 December 2010 Revise & Post final RFP – ASAP Vendors submit responses Proposals evaluated & Set Competitive Range Provide remaining vendors comments & questions Receive Best and Final Offers (BAFO) Review BAFO & make recommendation Award Contract – no later than 30 September 2011 New contract starts – No later than 1 October 2011 System Operational – No later than 1 October 2013

  6. Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation • Multi-Agency development effort led by NCEP/EMC • ESRL / GSD + ESRL / PSD • Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation • NOAA, NESDIS, NASA, DOD • Code management (SubVersion) with regression testing • Community supported via DTC in Boulder • GSI Community TutorialJune 28-30, 2010 • Includes hybrid approach: Ensemble Kalman-Filter + 3D- or 4D-VAR • GSI already had 4D-VAR capability added by Y.Tremolet/R.Todling of NASA/GMAO with many solution options for both 3D- and 4D-VARiational • First hybrid version now installed and tested in GSI • Works for global & NEMS/NMMB on full or subset of model domain / resolution • Reads external ensemble(s) of different resolution • Testing dual resolution to make the hybrid affordable, connecting NMMB/NDAS to operational GEFS & experimental EnKF

  7. GSI Upgrades Global upgrade ~March 2011 Faster code (~9%), improved optimization and additional options Recomputed background errors Limit moisture to be >= 1.e-10 in each outer iteration and at the end of analysis Locate buoys at 10 m (from 20 m) Ambiguous vector qc for ASCAT data Satellite radiance related changes Update to radiative transfer model - CRTM 2.0.2 Inclusion of Field of View Size/Shape/Power for radiative transfer Relax AMSU-A Channel 5 QC Remove down weighting of collocated radiances Inclusion of uniform (higher resolution) thinning for satellite radiances Stratospheric satellite Improved OMI QC Removal of redundant SBUV/2 total ozone Retune SBUV/2 ozone ob errors Inclusion of SBUV from NOAA-19 New ob sources for NAM ~May 2011 New conventional obs • MESONET ps, T, q • ACARS moisture (WVSS-II) • MAP Profiler winds • RASS Profiler Tv • WINDSAT & ASCAT ocean winds (from scatterometer) New unconventional obs • Satellite Radiances • AMSUA from aqua & NOAA19 • HIRS4 & MHS from NOAA19 • IASI from METOP-A • Refractivity • GPS radio occultation

  8. GFS Resolution Increase (July 2010) • Horizontal Resolution Increase from T382 to T574 spectral or from ~35 km to ~27 km • Physics Upgrades & Enhancements • Radiation and Cloud • Boundary Layer • Mass flux Shallow Convection • Deep Convection • Removal of Negative Water Vapor • Gravity-Wave Drag Parameterization • Better Hurricane Relocation & Snow analysis

  9. Impact of GFS Physics Upgrade Implemented 28 July 2010 • Modified GFS shallow/deep convection and PBL • Detrainment from all levels (deep convection) • PBL diffusion in inversion layers reduced (decrease erosion of marine stratus) • Eliminates grid-point precipitation “bombs” 24 h accumulated precip ending 12 UTC 14 July 2009 Operational GFS Observed Upgraded Physics GFS

  10. Low Wind Speed Bias in Stratosphere Will Be Corrected with Reduced Diffusion in ~March 2011 GSI+GFS-Bugfix Bundle T574 with reduced diffusion T574 T382 ECMWF

  11. GFS FY2012 Upgrade Plans • Model not yet been finalized - current candidates are: • T-574 / L64 Eulerian • Sub-grid scale cloud scheme using Monte-Carlo Independent Column Approximation • Ferrier Microphysics (from NAM) • Surface Roughness over water • NSST Model – produces realistic diurnal cycle for SST • T-878 / L64 Semi-Lagrangian • Longer time step permitted for dynamics & advection • Uses identical grid as T-574 to perform physics • Recently solved the noise issue at the top of the model • Additional efficiency has been gained - greater resolution may be possible • Include some/all of the Eulerian changes • Aerosols using GOCART (with NASA) • WAFS products harmonized with UK Met (WAFC-London)

  12. Offline GFS-GOCART 7-day Simulation of Iceland’s Eyjafjallajökull Volcano • Daily 48 Hours Forecasts made from April 14 2010 to April 20 2010, CPU~ 3 hours clock each day • Driven by operational GFS (T-382 remapped to 1 deg x 1 deg) • 5 size bins (radius) DU1: 0.1 – 1.0 µm, DU2: 1.0 - 1.8 µm, DU3: 1.8 – 3.0 µm, DU4: 3.0 – 6.0 µm, DU5: 6.0 – 10.0 µm • Continuous release of 1x106 kg/hr in 1x1 grid box at ~5 km level for each bin, total=5x106 kg/hr • Results shown: • 0-24 hour forecast from April 14 to April 20, 24-48 hour forecast for last day (April 21 01Z- April 22 -00Z) • Hourly average total column concentration, sum of all 5 bin (du1 + du2 + du3 + du4 + du5)

  13. ~Feb 2011 Upgrade of HiResWindow • Upgrade NMM & ARW to WRF v3.2 • Use improved passive advection in both cores • Add High Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) & BUFR product generation 4.0 km WRF-NMM 5.15 km WRF-ARW 48 hr fcsts from both Unless there are hurricanes 18Z Expanded PR domain 00Z, 12Z 00Z 12Z 06Z, 18Z 06Z 00Z, 12Z Guam • Daily displays of these runs can be seen at: • http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/and • http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/nestpage/

  14. ARW 24 h total qpf NMM 24 h total qpf 20101020/06f48 20101020/06f48 HREF mean of 44 members 24 h total qpf SREF mean of 21 members 24 h total qpf 20101020/03f51 20101020/06f48

  15. Sample BUFR output from HiresW planned 2011 Upgrade NMM ARW

  16. NEMS Component Structure MAIN All boxes represent ESMF components (now supported by NOAA/ESRL). NEMS NEMS LAYER Ensemble Coupler EARTH(1:NM) Below the dashed line, the source codes are organized by the model developers. Ocean Ice Atm ARW FIM NMM GFS Domains(1:ND) Wrt Wrt Phy Phy Dyn Dyn Wrt Dyn Phy Wrt Phy Dyn CMAQ GOCART WRF-Chem

  17. ● For Spring 2011 implementation: ● Future NEMS NMM-B Nests • Static, 1-way interaction. • Boundaries fed by the parent every parent timestep during • the integration. • Unique sets of processors assigned to each domain to optimize • the balance of work and minimize the clocktime required. • Nest is ‘grid-associated’ with its parent. • Any parent-nest ratio (integer) can be used. • Moving, 1-way interaction; now under development. • Static/Moving, 2-way interaction. Flexibility may be restricted • in domain processor assignment and parent-nest ratios. • Free-standing nests that are not ‘grid-associated’ with parents.

  18. Gulf Spill 1.33 km NEMS/NMMB nest Tropical Depression 5 19Z 11 August 1000 m REFD, 10 m winds

  19. Current NAM WRF-NMM (E-grid) GSI analysis 4/Day = 6 hr update Forecasts to 84 hours 12 km horizontal 12 hr pre-forecast assimilation period with 3hr updates (catch-up) New NAM NEMS based NMMB B-grid replaces E-grid Parent remains 12 km to 84 hr Multiple Nests Run to 60 hr 4 km CONUS nest 6 km Alaska nest 3 km HI & PR nests Single locatable ~1.33-1.5 km FireWeather/IMET/DHS run to 36hr ~May 2011 NAM Upgrade

  20. Microphysics Development • Added WRF’s WSM6 microphysics (W. Wang) • Tests over 4-km CONUS (conus4) and 4-km CONUS in 12-km AQ domain runs (nest) • Similar skill in both runs, WSM6 ~30% slower • Advection of condensate (W. Wang) • Added “spec_adv” flag to NMMB • Advect total condensate only (false) • Advect individual hydrometeors (true) • Works for wsm6 & fer microphysics • Similar skill seen for either advection option • Concluded no benefit to compensate for greater expense

  21. Parent (BMJ) Nest (BMJ_DEV) Nest (BMJ_DEV) Parent (BMJ) Physics Testing: Reduced Convective Triggering in 4 km CONUS nest vs 12 km Parent 0-60 h Cu QPF Deep Cu Cloud Top Pressure(hPa)

  22. Turned on gravity wave drag/mountain blocking in 6 km Alaska nest to reduce 10-m wind bias Last run w/o GWD First run w/GWD

  23. Microphysics Changes Impacts the Simulated Radar Reflectivities Ops ferrier New ferrier • Higher composite dBZ in new vs. ops fer • Output is from 4-km CONUS nest runs but interpolated to 12-km grid 218.

  24. Parent & Nest Reflectivity Loop Left: 12-km “Air Quality” Domain (~1/2 size of current NAM)- Control BMJ convection (same as in NAM)- Modified fer microphysics Right: 4-km CONUS domain- BMJ_DEV convection (reduced triggering)- Modified fer microphysics

  25. GOES W IR GOES W Vis New Cloud Fraction(reduced for cold, high clouds) NAM Total Cloud Fraction (%) New Total Cloud Fraction (%)

  26. Hurricane Earl near Puerto Rico 12 km NMMB parent 3 km Puerto Rico nest

  27. MD Backdoor Coldfront in 1.33km Nest May 2010 27/16Z to 28/12Z

  28. MD Backdoor Coldfront in 1.33km Nest May 2010 27/16Z to 28/12Z

  29. Convergence of NAM & RUC into hourly NARRE & HRRRE There is a signed agreement on NARRE between NCEP/EMC and ESRL/GSD Based on NEMS common modeling infrastructure Ensembles: Sample uncertainty within membership Initial & Lateral Boundary conditions Dynamics & Physics Provide full description of uncertainty Can adapt to rapidly evolving science of underlying data assimilation and modeling

  30. NAM NEMS based NMMB Bgrid replaces Egrid Parent remains at 12 km to 84 hr Multiple Nests Run to 60hr 4 km CONUS nest 6 km Alaska nest 3 km HI & PR nests Reinstate Fire Weather/IMET Support/DHS run to 36hr Locate a single 1.33-1.5 km run In either CONUS or Alaska Rapid Refresh WRF-based ARW NCEP’s GSI analysis Expanded 13 km Domain to include Alaska Experimental 3 km HRRR WRF-Rapid Refresh domain – 2010 RUC-13 CONUS domain Original CONUS domain Experimental 3 km HRRR 2011

  31. North American Rapid Refresh ENSEMBLE (NARRE) NMMB (from NCEP) & ARW (from ESRL) dynamic cores Common use of NEMS infrastructure and GSI analysis Common NAM parent domain at 10-12 km Initially ~6 member ensemble made up of equal numbers of NMMB- & ARW-based configurations Hourly updated with forecasts to 24 hours NMMB & ARW control data assimilation cycles with 3 hour pre-forecast period (catch-up) with hourly updating NAM & SREF 84 hr forecasts are extensions of the 00z, 06z, 12z, & 18z runs – for continuity sake. SREF will be at same 10-12 km resolution as NARRE by then SREF will have 21 members plus 6 from NARRE for total of 27 NARRE requires an increase in current HPCC funding 2014-2015

  32. High Resolution Rapid Refresh ENSEMBLE (HRRRE) Each member of NARRE contains 3 km nests CONUS, Alaska, Hawaii & Puerto Rico/Hispaniola nests The two control runs initialized with radar data & other hi res obs This capability puts NWS/NCEP[+OAR/ESRL] in a position to Provide NextGen Enroute AND Terminal guidance (FWIS-like) Provide PROBABILITY guidance with full Probability Density Function specified, hence uncertainty information too Provide a vehicle to improve assimilation capabilities using hybrid (EnsKF+4DVar) technique with current & future radar & satellite Address Warn-on-Forecast as resolutions evolve towards ~1 km NAM nests are extensions of the 00z, 06z, 12z & 18Z runs. HRRRE requires an increase in current HPCC funding over and above that required for the NARRE 2015-2016

  33. A Catch-Up Cycle for NARRE & HRRRE could constitute the Analysis of Record Catch-up = reach back in time to include late arriving obs Assimilate ALL in situ and remote data sources Use state-of-the-art 4-dimensional data assimilation technique Likely a hybrid of Ensemble Kalman-Filter and 3D-/4D-Variational Able to take quick advantage of its evolution Use state-of-the-art nonhydrostatic numerical models Advanced Research WRF (ARW) core from NCAR & ESRL/GSD Non-hydrostatic Multiscale Model on B-Grid (NMMB) from NCEP Interoperable physics from WRF community & NCEP operations Able to take quick advantage of their evolution Extend to include NextGen required parameters This AoR requires an increase in current HPCC funding 2015-2017

  34. Review SREF Implementation (Oct. 27th 2009)- Jun Du et al. • Upgrade model versions • WRF-NMM from v2.0+ to v2.2+ • WRF-ARW from v2.0+ to v2.2+ • RSM from v2007 to v2009 • Increase horizontal resolution • WRF-NMM from 40km to 32km • WRF-ARW from 45km to 35km • RSM from 45km to 32km • Adjust membership • Replace 2 Eta (BMJ-sat) members with 2 WRF-NMM members • Replace 2 Eta (KF-det) members with 2 WRF-ARW members • Enhancement physics diversity of RSM: replace Zhao cloud scheme with Ferrier cloud scheme for 3 SAS members • Enhance initial perturbation diversity: Replace regional bred perturbations with global ET perturbations for 10 WRF members

  35. Next SREF Implementation Plan (Q4FY2011)- Geoff DiMego and Jun Du Models and configurations • Drop Eta (6 members) and RSM (5 members) • Add 7 NEMS-NMMB members and 2 each to WRF members, yielding • Membership and resolution of future SREF will be • 7 NEMS-NMMB at 22 km (from 32 km) • 7 WRF-NMM at 22 km (from 32 km) • 7 WRF-ARW at 25 km (from 35 km) • Initialization diversity of future SREF will be • 7 NEMS-NMMB from NAM / NDAS + ETR • 7 WRF-NMM from GFS / GDAS + ETR • 7 WRF-ARW from Rapid Refresh + ETR • Ensemble job scripts have been generalized to run both WRF & NEMS members significantly simplifying future implementations • Output same fields as current operational SREF Post process • Precipitation calibration

  36. SREF Implementation Plan for FY11-14- Geoff DiMego and Jun Du North America Ensemble Forecast System’s extension to regional ensemble (NAEFS_LAM) • Based on 5th NAEFS conference: May 17-19th, 2010 • Need - Both U.S. and Canada need to run high-resolution regional ensembles for high-impact weather. • Benefit - More resource can be spent on increasing model resolution but not on increasing ensemble membership as well as increasing forecast diversity. • Canadian REPS: 20 members with GEM, downscaled GEFS IC perturbations, 30km, 48hr, NA domain, later 2010 implementation (B08RDP, VC2010, Haiti earth quake relief effort) (21+20=41 member SREF) • Problem - Both countries are big in domain and don’t have enough computing resources to run such a high-resolution ensemble with large enough ensemble size. • Evolving Plans for NAEFS_LAM • 2010: verification and implementation of REPS at Canadian side • 2011/12: research to see benefit of combining NCEP SREF and CMC REPS and resolve technical details about the data/variable exchange following NAEFS • 2013: operational implementation at both centers Others • Stochastic physics • Convective parameterization of Teixeira et al - NRL • Ensemble transform with rescaling (ETR) initial perturbations • Consistent with boundary perturbations from GEFS • Resolution • Looking for higher resolution

  37. Very Short Range Ensemble Forecast (VSREF) System [courtesy of Binbin Zhou] • NAM cycles always older than RUC  VSREF gives more weight to RUC • Example: Ensemble member combination for 06Z cycle run • 4 NAM cycles, weighted 0.7, 0.5, 0.3, 0.1, respectively • 6 RUC cycles, weighted 1.0, 0.9, 0.8, 0.7, 0.6, 0.5, respectively • Forecast hour extended to 12 hr (with extension of RUC forecasts to 18hr) RUC NAM 06 12 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06Z cycle: VSREF’s ensemble member configuration

  38. VSREF Webpage Download grids from here

  39. Google Map of 4 RTMA DomainsFirst Phase of Analysis of Record Courtesy of Yan Zheng University of Utah Real Time Mesoscale Analysis Analyzed every hour on the NWS’ NDFD grids 10 m wind + est. anal. uncertainty 2m Temperature + est.anal.unc. 2m dew point + est.anal.unc. Sfc pressure + est.anal.uncertainty 1 hr precip (Stage 2) GOES Eff. Cloud Amount

  40. 2.5 km (top) vs 5 km (bottom)

  41. NAM 12 hr Forecast Ri-Based PBL Height with Verifying RAOBs

  42. Initial Test RTMA Analysis of PBL Height

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