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ATMOSPHERIC MODELING NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION

ATMOSPHERIC MODELING NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION. Instructor: Dr. SEVINC SIRDAS ISTANBUL TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY FACULTY OF AERONAUTICS and ASTRONAUTICS DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGICAL ENGINEERING Email address: sirdas@itu.edu.tr. Course Outline s : History of NWP Basic Equations

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ATMOSPHERIC MODELING NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION

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  1. ATMOSPHERIC MODELING NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION Instructor: Dr. SEVINC SIRDAS ISTANBUL TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY FACULTY OF AERONAUTICS and ASTRONAUTICS DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGICAL ENGINEERING Email address: sirdas@itu.edu.tr

  2. Course Outlines: • History of NWP • Basic Equations • Methods of Solution • Boundary and Initial Conditions • Model Evaluation • Data Assimilation Numerical Methods • Finite Differences • Taylor Series 1D • Types of PDEs

  3. MTO477 Brief History of Meteorology and NWP Lecture 1

  4. Brief History of Meteorology • 340 B.C. • Meteorologica - Aristotle • 1400's • Hygrometer - Cryfts (1450) • Anemometer - Alberti (1450) • 1500's • Thermoscope - Galileo • 1600's • Barometer - Torricelli (1643) • Les Meteores - Descarte (1637) • 1700's • Trade winds - Hadley (1730) • 1800's • Three-cell model - Ferrel (1855) • Weather maps of surface pressure • 1900's • Weather prediction from maps - Bjerknes (1903) • Polar front theory - Bjerknes (1921) • Numerical weather prediction - Richardson (1922) • First computer forecast - Charney / von Neumann (1948) • Daily balloon observations (1940's) • Weather satellites (Tiros I, 1960)

  5. Excerpts from Aristotle’s Meteorologica There are two reasons for there being more winds from the northerly than the southerly regions. First, our inhabited region lies toward the north; second, far more rain and snow is pushed up into this region because the other lies beneath the sun and its course. These melt and are absorbed by the earth and when subsequently heated by the sun and the earth’s own heat cause a greater and more extensive exhalation. Let us now explain lightning and thunder, and then whirlwinds, firewinds and thunderbolts; for the cause of all of them must be assumed to be the same. As we have said, there are two kinds of exhalation, moist and dry; and their combination (air) contains both potentially. It condenses into cloud, as we have explained before, and the condensation of clouds is thicker toward their farther limit. Heat when radiated disperses into the upper region. But any of the dry exhalation that gets trapped when the air is in process of cooling is forcibly ejected as the clouds condense and in its course strikes the surrounding clouds, and the noise caused by the impact is what we call thunder.

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