1 / 47

THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY AND FUTURE WORKFORCE CONSIDERATIONS

THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY AND FUTURE WORKFORCE CONSIDERATIONS. 27th Annual Information Technology (IT) Conference. Dennis K. Winters Chief, Office of Economic Advisors Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development. March 3, 2011. HOW BAD WAS IT?.

brennan-lopez
Download Presentation

THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY AND FUTURE WORKFORCE CONSIDERATIONS

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. THE STATE OF THE ECONOMYANDFUTURE WORKFORCE CONSIDERATIONS 27th AnnualInformation Technology (IT) Conference Dennis K. Winters Chief, Office of Economic Advisors Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development March 3, 2011

  2. HOW BAD WAS IT?

  3. HOW BAD WAS IT?THINGS THAT NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE • Four negative U.S. GDP quarters in a row • Global GDP declined • The U.S. and Japan were in recession at same time • Personal consumption expenditures were down 3 out of four quarters, with the one registering just +0.1% • Longest downturn since Great Depression • Twice as long as post-war average recession

  4. INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITY PLUNGED U.S. AND ESPECIALLY THE MIDWEST Source: Chicago Fed, OEA

  5. EMPLOYMENT DROPPED PRECIPITIOUSLY JOB LOSSES WORSE THAN 1981 RECESSION Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, LMI, OEA

  6. UNEMPLOYMENT CLIMBED NOT QUITE TO LEVELS OF 1981 RECESSION Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, LMI, OEA

  7. DURATION OF FINDING NEW JOB IS PROTRACTED Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics and National Bureau of Economic Research

  8. HOW DO YOU SPELL RECOVERY?

  9. HOW DO YOU SPELLRECOVERY? • GDP • DJIA • JOBS

  10. HOW DO YOU SPELL RECOVERY?GDP; Six positive quarters, Q4 up 2.8% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, OEA

  11. HOW DO YOU SPELL RECOVERY?DJIA; UP 85% SINCE MARCH 9, 2009 Source: http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/charts/chartdl.aspx

  12. MANAGING RISK WHERE IS THE INCENTIVE TO EXPAND

  13. HOW DO YOU SPELL RECOVERY?JOBS; STILL DOWN 150,000 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, LMI, OEA

  14. JOB RECOVERY WILL TAKE TIME Source: BLS, OEA

  15. YES VIRGINIA, WE ARE IN RECOVERY MODE

  16. BUSINESS CYCLE SEVERESIX QUARTERS TO RECOVER Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, OEA

  17. BOTH MAJOR SECTORS RECOVERING MANUFACTURING AND NON-MANUFACTURING Source: St. Louis Fed, OEA

  18. INVESTMENT GROWTH IS IN PRODUCTIVITY, NOT EXPANSION Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, OEA

  19. UTILIZATION CAPACITY STILL SOME SLACK IN SYSTEM

  20. IN CONCLUSIONCONTINUED RECOVERY • Self-sustaining recovery • Employment breach in 2014? • Strength of recovery subject to consumer income and wealth uncertainty Risks • Financial workouts put too much strain on economy. • European Union fiscal problems wash over the global financial markets. • High unemployment saps consumption.

  21. So, what will be the biggest social policy challenge in the next 20 years?

  22. ELDERLY NUMBERS WILL SWELLWIDEN THE SIDEWALKS WILL YA !?

  23. QUANTITY

  24. WISCONSIN’S WORKFORCE GROWTHBECOMES FLAT Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, OEA

  25. BLS RAISED LFPR FOR THE FUTUREPARTICULARLY FOR OLDER COHORTS Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of the Census, OEA

  26. WISCONSIN’S WORKFORCE HIGHER LFPRs OFFER LIMITED GAINS Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, OEA

  27. LITTLE CHANGES EVEN WITH HIGHER LFPR RETIREMENTS SWAMP PARTICIPATION Source: Bureau of the Census, DOA, OEA

  28. QUALITY

  29. THIS IS NOT YOUR FATHER’S ECONOMY IN FACT, THAT WAS AN ABERRATION

  30. FUTURE EMPLOYEES REQUIRE HIGHER SKILLS "The days are over when you could walk into a paper mill with a high school diploma and run one of the machines." – Patrick Schillinger, former Wisconsin Paper Council President,Center will teach paper-industry technology, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, JS Online, October 21, 2004.

  31. EQUAL SKILLS NOW REQUIREDNO TWO-TRACKING • Entry level jobs with family supporting wages and advancement opportunities require same knowledge foundation and skill set as those entering post-secondary education. • Advanced reading • Advanced writing • Advanced mathematics (Algebra II) • Fastest growing occupations earning greater than $30,000 per year, require some • post-secondary education. Source: Achieve, Inc, OEA.

  32. FUTURE EMPLOYERS NEED FOR CREATIVITY & INNOVATION “Today in most fields I know, the struggle is about creativity and innovation. There is no script.” – Robert B. Shapiro, former CEO & Chairman, Monsanto Corporation

  33. WORKPLACE REQUIREMENTS CHANGES IN SKILLS USED AT WORK* Nonroutine interactive Nonroutine analytic. Routine manual Routine cognitive Nonroutine manual * Based on the Dictionary of Occupational Titles Source: Autor, Levy and Murnane, 2003 Source: K-12 Education and Economic Summit presentation by Alan B. Krueger, Princeton University

  34. JOB PROSPECTS

  35. “I’m worried about job security and I don’t even have a job yet.”

  36. JOB OPENINGS BY OCCUPATIONAL GROUPWISCONSIN, 2008-2018 Source: Office of Economic Advisors, Wisconsin Projections 2008-2018

  37. TOP OCCUPATIONS WITH MOST NEW JOBSWISCONSIN, 2008-2018 Source: Office of Economic Advisors, Wisconsin Projections 2008-2018

  38. FASTEST GROWING OCCUPATIONSWISCONSIN, 2008-2018 Note: Only occupations with at least 500 jobs in 2018 were included. Source: Office of Economic Advisors, Wisconsin Projections 2008-2018

  39. MOST “IN DEMAND” OCCUPATIONSWISCONSIN, 2008-2018 Note: Occupations most “in demand” satisfy the following criteria: 1. Annual growth rate is above the statewide average of 0.27% between 2008 and 2018 2. Annual median wage is higher than the State’s median wage for all jobs ($32,351) 3. Top 30 total job openings (openings due to either new jobs or replacement needs) Among top 100 fastest growing occupations Among top 100 occupations with the most new jobs between 2008 and 2018 Among top 100 highest-paid occupations Source: Office of Economic Advisors, Wisconsin Projections 2008-2018

  40. IT OCCUPATIONS WITH THE MOST OPENINGSWISCONSIN, 2008-2018 Typical Education and Training Path gives a general indication of the education or training typically needed in the occupation. There may be other pathways into the occupation, as well as additional educational, training, or licensing requirements.

  41. FASTEST GROWING IT OCCUPATIONSWISCONSIN, 2008-2018

  42. INDUSTRIES WITH THE GREATEST NUMBER OF COMPUTER SUPPORT SPECIALISTS

  43. WORKFORCE TRENDSARE: • Unprecedented – we have never faced a declining workforce before; • Assured – demographics will change little; • Largely unalterable – demographics and migration patterns do not change abruptly.

  44. RAMIFICATIONS OF WORKFORCE TRENDSARE: • Potentially devastating – without sufficient productivity gains the state’s economy will stagnate; • Necessitating a focus on talent – large investments in education and training are needed; • Requiring match – talent supply and industry demand must be matched or you lose both.

  45. QUESTIONS?

  46. CONTACT INFORMATION • Dennis Winters • Phone: 608-267-3262 • Email: dennis.winters@dwd.wisconsin.gov • Website:www.dwd.wisconsin.gov • OEA website: www.dwd.wisconsin.gov/oea

More Related