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Future of the Workforce

Future of the Workforce. Valley Health Occupational Health Services Seminar Winchester, Virginia 4 November 2011 John Howard National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Washington, D.C . . Seven Billion in 2011 .

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Future of the Workforce

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  1. Future of the Workforce Valley Health Occupational Health Services Seminar Winchester, Virginia 4 November 2011 John Howard National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Washington, D.C.

  2. Seven Billion in 2011

  3. Challenges to the Future of Work • How Safe is It? • Hazards • Persistent • Emerging • How Stable is It? • Employment • Flexible vs. Precarious • Unemployment

  4. The Future of the Workforce • We do not talk about the state of the workforce itself • Challenges: • Employers • Workers • Government • Demographic, health, social, economic

  5. 1. Limited Availability All Ages 2. More Chronologically-Gifted 3. Health Challenges for Younger Workers 4. The R-Word & Pension Funding 5. Global Competition for Workers 6. Work Extension & Recareering 7. Aging Productively Workforce Challenges

  6. Occupational Safety & Health Act29 U.S.C. 651(b) • Congress declares it to be its purpose and policy • To assure as far as possible every working man and woman in the Nation safe and healthful working conditions, and • To preserve our human resources

  7. Growing Shortage of U.S. Workers Expected Labor Force and Labor Force Demand Millions of People Source: Employment Policy Foundation analysis and projections of Census/BLS and BEA data.

  8. 1970-2010 2010-2050 Screeching to a Halt:Growth in the Working-Age Population Mexico Brazil India China South Australia Canada US Netherlands Spain France UK Russia Italy Japan Germany Korea Source: Deloitte Research/UN Population Division (http://esa.un.org/unpp/) It’s 2008: Do You Know Where Your Talent Is? Why Acquisition and Retention Strategies Don’t Work, p.6

  9. Dramatically Different Patterns of Growth by Age Percent Growth in U.S. Population by Age: 2000-2010 3. Rapid growth in the over-55 workforce 2. Few younger workers entering Age of Workers 1. Declining number of mid-career workers Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000

  10. . . . Continuing Into the Future Percent Growth in U.S. Workforce by Age: 2000-2020 Age of Workers Source: U.S. Census Bureau

  11. 5% to 12.4% Under 5% 12.5% to 20% Above 20% In 2000, A Fairly “Young” World . . . Percent of Population Age 60+ in 2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000

  12. 5% to 12.4% Under 5% 12.5% to 20% Above 20% . . . Rapidly Aging by 2025 Percent of Population Age 60+ in 2025 Source: U.S. Census Bureau,. 2000

  13. Why? “Sudden” Boom in Life Expectancy Life Expectancy at Birth: 1000 - 2000 Age Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000

  14. And a Dramatic Drop in Birth Rates Total Fertility Rate: 1960 ▀ and 2000 ▀ Total Fertility Rate Source: Age Wave

  15. 1990 1980 1970 1960 1950 1940 1930 Why? The Baby Boom Pattern The Boom Years: 1946-1964 4.5 4.0 3.5 Birth in Millions 3.0 2.5 2.0 Source: U.S. Census Bureau International Data Base

  16. Webster's Definition of Retirement • to disappear • to go away • to withdraw Source: Webster's New Twentieth Century Dictionary

  17. More Years Spent in “Retirement” After First Career 30 + 20-25 19.4 13.6 Years 1.2 Source: Age Wave, based on U.S. data, and The Concours Group

  18. Pension Primer • Bulk of retirement income comes from the government • Despite insurance label, pension systems are pay-as-you-go systems in which benefits are paid out of current taxes • Immediate cash cost is not the big problem • Key figure is the support ratio (ratio of workers to pensioners) • Defined Benefit (DB) – Risk on Employer • Workers promised pensions linked to salaries • Defined Contribution – Risk on Worker • Pension depends on amount contributed, investment performance • Public Sector (States and Cities) • Has underfunded pension schemes for years • Relied on stock market to come to the rescue, but gamble failed

  19. Over to You! Private Sector Bails on DB Plans

  20. Workers Per Medicare Beneficiary Beneficiaries (Millions) Workers Per Beneficiary 2000 2010 2020 2030 2000 2010 2020 2030 Source: Kaiser Family Foundation, based on 2001 and 2008 Annual Reports of the Boards of Trustees of the Federal Hospital Insurance and Federal Supplementary Medical Insurance Trust Funds.

  21. The Case of Social Security • Social Security Act of 1935 • In 1935, life expectancy at birth was 62 • Retirement benefits started at 65! • Intended to be brief period of assistance for the hardy few at the sunset of life • Now, life expectancy is causing $$$ strain • In 2010, SSA ran a cash deficit first time since 1983 • 6 years earlier than expected, due to high unemployment

  22. Taxes Must Rise or Benefits “Cut” • “Cuts” by raising retirement age or increasing # contribution years • Nations are now banning early retirement & raising eligibility age • France – Raised early retirement age to 62 by 2018 and had strikes • Greece – Raised full benefit retirement age to 63; banned early retirement at 55 altogether; and had riots • Italy -- From 2015 on, future changes in retirement age will be indexed to the rise in life expectancy • U.S. • 1983 Amendments phased in a gradual increase in the age for collecting full Social Security retirement benefits. The retirement age will increase from 65 to 67 over a 22-year period, with an 11-year hiatus at which the retirement age will remain at 66. • 70 for maximum benefits? • Disadvantages workers in physically demanding jobs?

  23. Demographics Summary • People are living longer; a high proportion of their lives will spent in 21st century in mid-20th century “retirement” • Large generation is now retiring, but following generations are much smaller in number; as a result, the support ratio is falling, leaving a huge cost burden on pension systems • Challenge for employers: • How to provide right incentives for work extension? • How to manage a health-challenged workforce? • Challenge for workers • How to age productively? • How to plan 21st century worklife?

  24. Health-Challenged Young Workers

  25. Childhood Obesity by Country

  26. Diabesity and the Future Workforce • 39 States with 40% of young adults considered to be overweight or obese in just last decade! • In Kentucky, Alabama and Mississippi, >50% young adults are overweight • Medical Consequences: • High Blood Pressure • High Fats in the Blood • Type 2 Diabetes (formerly called adult-onset) • Sleep apnea (too much fat around the upper airway) • Musculoskeletal Stressors • What workers at all ages have in common!

  27. Too Fat to Fight • Reasons for Rejection: • Education, criminal record, medical • In 2010, 99% of recruits had HS diploma • Criminal record still an obstacle • Since 1995, proportion of recruits who failed their physical exams because they were overweight has risen by nearly 70% • Being overweight is now the leading medical reason for rejection.

  28. Global Competition for Workers from BRICS • In 1900s, U.S. benefited from immigration of skilled workers from sending countries • In 2000s, these sending countries are now keeping their workers

  29. BRICS and More • BRICS: Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa • U.S. cannot count on acquiring skilled workers from sending countries • International labor market may not be that international! • Global competition for talent • Leads to global skilled worker scarcity • Effects on employers? • New immigration laws in Arizona, Utah, Indiana and Georgia • Alabama: • Latino pop grew by 145 % to about 185,600 • New law allows authorities to question people suspected of being in the country illegally and hold them without bond. It also lets officials check the immigration status of students in public schools

  30. Aging Productively

  31. Aging: A Balance of Factors • Limitations? • Physical Capacity • Chronic Medical Conditions • Mental Capacity & Cognitive Limitations • Compensating Factors? • Attitude • Judgment • Flexibility • Interest in learning new things

  32. Physical Capacity • Physiology Facts • Maximal strength at 20-30 years • O2 uptake reduced to 70% (max) by 65 years • Older adults work closer to capacity! • Decreased Performance, Yes But … • For physically demanding work only • Work uncommonly demands maximal effort • Manufacturing to service economy • Robotics

  33. Physical Capacity: Match Worker to Task • Maintaining musculoskeletal health will be increasingly important • Workers’ abilities need to be matched to the job • Results in less morbidity • Based on practical ergonomic and accommodation principles • Need for expertise in providing reasonable accommodations growing and will grow more • Studies show only 10-20% of workers needing accommodations are provided accommodations

  34. ADA Amendments Act of 2008 • Definition of disability: • Construed in favor of broad coverage and generally “shall not require extensive analysis” • Makes it easier for individuals to establish that they have a disability • Many with MSDs are considered individuals with a disability • ADA Amendments Act will increase need for reasonable accommodations practice skills • In safety and health professionals • EEOC issued final rule on March 25, 2011 • 76 Federal Register 16,978

  35. Age and Chronic Medical Conditions

  36. Workers with >1 Chronic Conditionby Age (U.S.) HRS 1998

  37. Mental Capacity • Learning and recall slower, equally successful by age • Factors other than psychometric cognitive abilities appear important to perform well at work • How well worker gets along with co-workers • Worker engagement • No evidence that older workers are rigid or stifle innovation

  38. What About Mental Retirement? “Use it or lose It” (in the popular literature) Stave off normal cognitive aging or dementia by engaging in cognitively demanding activities Converse: Un-demanding environment may fail to impede or even accelerate the process of cognitive decline Hypothesis that people can maintain their cognitive abilities through mental exercise is not proven, but suggestive 2010 Journal of Economic Perspectives’ paper addresses the question of whether retirement leads to cognitive decline Uses cross-national comparable surveys of older persons from US, UK and eleven EU countries in 2004

  39. Mental Retirement

  40. Essential Points About Aging Workforce • Do aging workers need special accommodations? • A well-designed workplace benefits everyone • Job tasks need to be matched to the capacity of each worker • Reasonable accommodations at all ages; matching task to worker • Any specific health and safety concerns related to aging workers? • No consistent relationship between aging and work performance! • Older workers have fewer injuries, but when one occurs, that injury tends to be more severe and it takes worker longer to get better. • Emphasizes the value of return to work policies, programs and practices!

  41. EVALUATION OF WORKSITE HEALTH PROMOTION PROGRAMS — DO THEY WORK?

  42. CDC COMMUNITY GUIDE TO PREVENTIVE SERVICES REVIEW – AJPM, FEBRUARY 2010

  43. Employee Wellness Practices: What’s the Evidence? • Evidence: • More than opinion, anecdote or testimonial • “…Growing body of empirical evidence* • Large proportion of diseases are preventable (risks are modifiable) • Risk-dependent diseases are costly & reduce worker productivity within short time window • Targeting risk can decrease costs/increase productivity • Worksite health promotion and disease prevention programs save companies money and produce + ROI * Goetzel & Reuters, Value in Health Care , Institute of Medicine (2010)

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