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Avocado Holiday Retail Recap

This report examines retail sales for key holidays and events in Q1 2019 within the avocado category, including Big Game, Valentine’s Day, and St. Patrick’s Day. It provides data on sales volumes, average prices, regional performance, and trends over the past four years.

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Avocado Holiday Retail Recap

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  1. Avocado Holiday Retail Recap Big Game, Valentine’s Day & St. Patrick’s Day HOLIDAYS & EVENTS Q1 2019

  2. Definitions • This report looks at retail sales performance for the three holiday and event weeks* listed below: • Big Game – week ending 2/03/2019 • Valentine’s Day – week ending 2/17/2019 • St. Patrick’s Day – week ending 3/17/2019 • Category: Avocados • Geographies: • Total U.S. • Regions • Retail POS data source: IRI / FreshLook *IRI data is provided in weekly increments, with each week ending on a Sunday. Weeks shown are the best fit for the holidays in this report. HAB's calculation is based in part on data reported by Information Resources, Inc. through its Freshlook Service for the Avocado category for Multi-Outlet (MULO). The information is believed to be reliable at the time supplied by IRI but is neither all-inclusive nor guaranteed by IRI. Without limiting the generality of the foregoing, specific data points may vary considerably from other information sources.

  3. Big Game week ending 2/03/2019 Big Game means big avocado sales. The Big Game ranks among the biggest avocado weeks of the year, and 2019 continued the tradition Avocado volume reached 65.0M units in 2019, a four-year high!

  4. Big Game shows record high unit sales Holiday Week Sales and Average Price by Year (Dollars and Units in millions) Units Dollars ASP Big Game week volume has increased each year for the past four years, up +27% vs. 2016 to 65.0MM units. Dollars sales also increased for three out of the past 4 years, but declined slightly in 2019 (-3% vs, 2018) to $56.4MM Source: IRI/FreshLook week ending 2/03/2019

  5. Big Game showed dollar gains in West and South Central Dollar Sales and % Change • Nationally, Big Game sales declined -3% vs. prior year to $56.4MM • West and South Central posted dollar gains in 2019, while all other regions declined • On average, avocado retailers saw Big Game week sales of $591 per store • Per store dollar sales were especially strong in West ($1,226) and California ($1,106) Total U.S. $56.4MM -3% Dollars per Store Selling Total U.S. Avg. = $591 Source: IRI/FreshLook week ending 2/03/2019

  6. Big Game volume growth varied across regions Unit Sales and % Change • Nationally, Big Game week avocado volume grew +1% to a new four-year high of 65.0MM units • Five of eight regions posted volume growth, ranging from a high of +7% in Plains to +3% in Midsouth • On average, avocado retailers saw sales of 681 units per store during Big Game week • California led the regions in unit sales per store selling. California, West, and South Central units/store exceeded the national average Total U.S. 65.0MM +1% Units per Store Selling Total U.S. Avg. = 681 Source: IRI/FreshLook week ending 2/03/2019

  7. Nationally, Big Game prices declined -4% Total U.S. $0.87 -4% West $0.88 +4% South Central $0.71 +5% Plains $0.79 -15% Midsouth $0.93 -7% low high Great Lakes $0.84 +1% California $0.76 -6% Southeast $0.92 -8% Northeast $1.16 -11% • At the region level, average price changes ranged from an increase of +5% in South Central to -15% in Plains • There was a wide range of prices across the regions, from a low of $0.71/unit in South Central to a high of $1.16/unit in Northeast Source: IRI/FreshLook week ending 2/03/2019

  8. Big Game category dollars decreased -$1.6MM Dollar Growth by Region (in millions) Unit Growth by Region (in millions) • Nearly all regions contributed to the Big Game week dollar decline of -$1.6MM. However, South Central and West each posted a +$0.3MM gain • Five of eight regions grew units, with California (+0.65MM) and Southeast (+0.39MM) posting the greatest gains Source: IRI/FreshLook week ending 2/03/2019

  9. Love is in the air…for avocados! This year, shoppers gave a delicious gift to their “special someone” for Valentine’s Day. Dollar sales reached $44.5MM for the holiday Valentine’s Day week ending 2/17/2019

  10. Valentine’s Day sales declined slightly in 2019 Holiday Week Sales and Average Price by Year (Dollars and Units in millions) Dollars Units ASP Valentine’s Day sales have trended upward for three out of the past four years. Dollar sales and volume declined slightly in 2019 Source: IRI/FreshLook week ending 2/17/2019

  11. Valentine’s Day dollar sales grew in the Southeast Dollar Sales and % Change • Nationally, Valentine’s Day sales declined -2% to $44.5MM • Southeast dollar sales increased +11%, while sales were flat or down in other regions • On average, avocado retailers saw sales of $467 per store for the holiday week • West posted per store dollar sales of double the national average Total U.S. $44.5MM -2% Dollars per Store Selling Total U.S. Avg. = $467 Source: IRI/FreshLook week ending 2/17/2019

  12. Valentine’s Day volume trends were mixed across the regions Unit Sales and % Change • Nationally, Valentine’s Day volume was flat at 45.0MM units • Volume trends ranged from a high of +20% in Southeast to -10% in Northeast • On average, avocado retailers saw sales of 472 units per store during the holiday week • At 982 units/per store, West’s rate was more than double the national average, and +183 units above the second-highest region, California Total U.S. 45.0MM -0% Units per Store Selling Total U.S. Avg. = 472 Source: IRI/FreshLook week ending 2/17/2019

  13. Nationally, average price declined slightly for Valentine’s Day Total U.S. $0.99 -1% California $1.05 +4% Plains $1.04 -4% South Central $0.77 +6% Southeast $0.97 -7% low high Great Lakes $0.99 -8% West $0.96 +1% Midsouth $1.05 -8% Northeast $1.22 -1% • Average price for Valentine’s Day ranged from a low of $0.77/unit in South Central to a high of $1.22/unit in Northeast • Average price increased across three of five regions and ranged from an increase of +6% in South Central to a decline of -8% in Great Lakes and Midsouth Source: IRI/FreshLook week ending 2/17/2019

  14. Valentine’s Day saw a decline in incremental sales Dollar Growth by Region (in millions) Unit Growth by Region (in millions) • Dollar sales decreased by -$0.8MM nationally. Six out of eight regions posted dollar declines • Incremental unit sales were mixed across the regions. However, the increases in Plains, Midsouth, Southeast and Great Lakes were not enough to offset the losses in other regions Source: IRI/FreshLook week ending 2/17/2019

  15. St. Patrick’s Day week ending 3/17/2019 The holiday of all things green! Shoppers added some color to St. Patrick’s Day meals with delicious avocados In 2019, St. Patrick’s Day saw record dollar sales and volume at $49.7MM and 51.4MM units

  16. Avocados deliver record sales for St. Patrick’s Day Holiday Week Sales and Average Price by Year (Dollars and Units in millions) Dollars Units ASP • Benefiting from lower prices, volume surged, pushing dollar sales to new heights for St. Patrick’s Day holiday week Source: IRI/FreshLook week ending 3/17/2019

  17. St. Patrick’s Day dollar trends were mixed across regions Dollar Sales and % Change • Nationally, St. Patrick’s Day sales increased +4% vs. prior year to $49.7MM • Five of the eight regions showed dollar growth, led by California at +13% • On average, avocado retailers saw sales of $522 per store during the holiday week • Per store sales were especially strong in West ($1,078) and California ($1,041) Total U.S. $49.7MM +4% Dollars per Store Selling Total U.S. Avg. = $522 Source: IRI/FreshLook week ending 3/17/2019

  18. St. Patrick’s Day volume soared across all regions Unit Sales and % Change • Nationally, St. Patrick’s Day volume rose +15% to 51.4MM units, with very strong trends in nearly all eight regions • Great Lakes (+28%) and Southeast (+25%) led the regions in unit growth • On average, avocado retailers saw sales of 539 units per store during the holiday week • West, California and South Central had per store unit sales above the national average Total U.S. 51.4MM +15% Units per Store Selling Total U.S. Avg. = 539 Source: IRI/FreshLook week ending 3/17/2019

  19. Average prices decreased for St. Patrick’s Day Total U.S. $0.97 -10% Great Lakes $0.99 -15% California $1.02 -3% South Central $0.68 -19% Southeast $0.97 -14% low high Plains $0.91 -16% Midsouth $0.98 -7% West $1.01 -1% Northeast $1.25 -8% • Nationwide, average price for St. Patrick’s Day week fell -10% to $0.97/unit • Average price decreased in all regions, with the largest declines in South Central (-19%) and Plains (-16%) Source: IRI/FreshLook week ending 3/17/2019

  20. All regions contributed to St. Patrick’s Day incremental volume Dollar Growth by Region (in millions) Unit Growth by Region (in millions) • Five of eight regions contributed to Total U.S. dollar growth of +$2.0MM. California posted the highest incremental dollar sales at +$0.9MM • All regions delivered unit growth, with Southeast, South Central, Great Lakes and California each delivering volume growth exceeding +1.0MM units Source: IRI/FreshLook week ending 3/17/2019

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