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Agile Forces – Complex Adaptive Systems and the Scenario Space

Explore the relevance of agile force development processes in dealing with emergent scenarios and navigating complex, unpredictable environments. Understand the need for robust capability over optimal in the face of uncertain futures.

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Agile Forces – Complex Adaptive Systems and the Scenario Space

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  1. Agile Forces – Complex Adaptive Systems and the Scenario Space John Medhurst, Larrainzar Consulting Jim Moffat, Tom Scales, Stuart Taylor Policy and Capability Studies

  2. Relevance to Strategy Management • HLOC: • ”will increasingly have to address issues associated with new and complex situations where scenarios are emergent” andtherefore “treats and considers the whole environment as a complex, unpredictable and adaptive system”. • FD process: • capable of delivering forces able to meet challenges arising within increasingly complex changeable environments. • agile force development process that develop forces. • robust to the broad range of possible futures.

  3. Relevance to Strategy Management • HLOC: • ”will increasingly have to address issues associated with new and complex situations where scenarios are emergent” andtherefore “treats and considers the whole environment as a complex, unpredictable and adaptive system”. • FD process: • capable of delivering forces able to meet challenges arising within increasingly complex changeable environments. • agile force development process that develop forces. • robust to the broad range of possible futures. The future is uncertain So we need robust capability, not optimal capability

  4. Median = 0, variance within 3% of expected value for completely random jumps

  5. Conclusions • It is possible to map conflicts onto a quantitative five dimensional space based upon the DCDC dimensions of the future • Doing this shows that the UK, US, French and Israeli experience of conflict over the past 60 years has shown high levels of variability in the scale and nature of conflicts. • The historical record shows evidence of both complex behaviour and randomness, with the extrapolation of recent experience being a poor guide to the next conflict • Though some trends exist, most notably a reduction in the level of military deaths relative to population, the trends account for only 10-20% of the variability where they exist. • Finally, consideration of the likelihood of extreme shocks also indicates that they are non-negligible over the kind of planning horizon required of defence planners.

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