Power, Politics and Conflict in World History, 1990-2010

1. 35 Power, Politics and Conflict in World History, 1990-2010

2. The Big Picture • Two trends that began in the early modern period accelerated in the decades following World War II • The power of the nation state and the power of national identity in world populations • Globalization in all matters of life for more people • Few pockets where global cultural patterns did not have a significant effect- remember the Paleolithic?... How far we have come! • These trends coupled by the end of the Cold War generated new threats throughout the world

3. Three major topics of this lecture • End of the Cold War and global realignments • Globalization and cultural identity in failed states • The power of non-state actors in global society • 9-11 and the aftermath

4. The End of the Bi-Polar World • The western model of liberal democracy (free market based economies and secular democracies) was globally challenged by the Marxist model of socialist command economies and atheistic communist autocracies • In this geopolitical struggle, the west (primarily the United States) often supported anti-communist autocrats (that had many features of the fascists of World War II) • The global power and influence of communist ideology reached its height somewhere around 1980 when the communist-non-communist balance rapidly shifted

5. Communist Counties 1980

6. The Communist World • The ideal that communism was a singular world movement proved to be erroneous by 1960 • The Sino-Soviet split revealed differing visions and competition for leadership in global communism • Communist movements ironically were often more nationalist than communist- a liberation movement against imperialism and neo-imperialism • The United States under Richard Nixon began to play this to America’s advantage in the early 1970’s

7. The 1980’s and the Changing Balance: China • In China • The tragedy of the cultural revolution and subsequent death of Mao opened room for the pragmatists to initiate market reforms • Socialism with Chinese characteristics (i.e. state capitalism) • Political liberalization did not follow market liberalization- Tiananmen Square Massacre • China’s economic trajectory has supported its growing role in world affairs- Return of the Middle Kingdom?

8. The 1980’s and the Changing Balance: Soviet Union • The Soviet Union had a number of factors working against it through the 1980’s • Demoralized and restive allies (satellite nations) • A stagnant and inefficient economy • State economic planning generated ecological catastrophies • An accelerating arms race instituted by US and President Ronald Reagan (Peace through strength) • Reform minded Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev came to power in 1985 proposing economic and political reforms

9. Impact of Gorbachev’s Reforms • Economic reforms- perestroika • Institute limited market-style incentives to ramp up production • Economic stagnation continued • Political reforms- glasnost • Invited openness and political debate • This combination of reforms coupled by the failures of Soviet communism proved to be fatal to the Soviet Union

10. The Fatal Combination • Combining openness to criticize with continued economic failure opened a floodgate of dissent • Fear of oppression and livable economic results sustained communism in its years in the Soviet Union- they were gone • Weakening of class ideology of Communism would invite resurgence of nationalism • Soviet Union had 15 united republics and dozens of autonomous regions within the Russian Republic • The collapse of communism in the west began outside the USSR where fear of Soviet intervention declined in the 1980’s

11. The Wayward Satellites • Polish labor movement seriously challenged communist government in 1980 • Inspired by the first Polish Pope John Paul II • President Reagan warned USSR against interfering • Non-communist movements in eastern Europe increased after Gorbachev’s reforms and promise not to interfere in affairs of neighbors • Most communist governments unseated peacefully- Berlin Wall comes don in November 1989 • End of communism in Yugoslavia opened door for competing nationalist movements that would generate a series of inter-ethnic civil wars in the 1990’s

12. 1991- The End of the Soviet Union • In summer of 1991, a failed military coup tried to remove Gorbachev from power • Popular support for Gorbachev stalled the coup and demonstrated growing democratic tendencies fed by reforms- people did not want to go back to a Stalinist system • Leadership within republics grew stronger- autonomy movements • Baltic Republics first to declare independence • December 1991, Soviet Union liquidated into 15 separate republics- most renouncing communism but many remaining autocratic • Gorbachev swept from power when his state was swept from history

13. The Party’s Over!

14. Global Impact of the End of the Cold War • American hegemony- no single nation could seriously match the power of the United States • Emerging nations could find no counter-weight to pressure the United States • America less interested in supporting anti-communist autocrats- significant spread of democracy • Communist states remained but the largest became fully integrated in the world economy

15. Communist Nations Today • Add Cuba and possibly Venezuela and that is communism today

16. Freedom of the Press in 2012

17. Interethnic Conflicts in the Artificial States of Africa • Inter-ethnic tensions were used by European colonialists to rule colonies • With independence delivered without promised economic gains would bring rise to ethnic tensions in many African states • Conflict often more of an ethnic cleansing or genocide- not defeating an army but removing a people from a territory • Infamous Rwanda genocide of 1994 • Popular frustration with weak or unstable government could have global impact

18. Failed States and Non-State Actors • States and governments are not the only international actors of our global age • NGO’s • Multi-National Corporations • International crime • Terrorist networks that fed on growing alienation of populations attempt to use little resources and lacking recognized central authority to challenge the state’s monopoly of force

19. Terrorism: Nothing New • Terror as an act of political force dates back to the earliest assassinations • With the rise of the state as the primary international actor and social organizer, an attack on civilians is in effect an attack on the government from which they owe allegiance • Threatening population undermines the authority and power of the state • Terrorism brings disproportionate attention to an issue (few people can get the attention of the world) • It may be easier to bomb a bus station than kill a head of state • The state’s response to terror may in effect validate and elevate the power of the terrorists

20. Contemporary Terror: An Age of Opportunity • Many forces conspire to support global terror networks • Internet and cellular communication are more widely available • Counter-terrorism measures criticized as a threat to privacy • Growing populations of alienated young men who have a world view that belies their poverty and powerlessness • Global society and the rapid movement of people and ideas across boarders

21. A General History to 9/11 • Islamic identity movements are among groups applying terror to meet political goals • In 1923, Turkish government ended its role of caliph • SayyidQutb and political Islam (see 873) • 20th century Egyptian- Islam as a political force to challenge western secular liberalism- The primacy of God’s law- Founding member of Muslim Brotherhood • Saudi Arabia and other Arab states ally with US (in spite of its support of Israel) • Fear of power and influence of Shiite Islamic Republic of Iran and nationalist power of Iraq • This would raise the ire of Saudi Osama bin Laden (see 916)

22. A Clash of Civilizations? • Political Scientist Samuel P Huntington proposed that Islamic religious identity movements will replace the political rivalry as the primary source of global conflict in the post-Cold War • The exclusivity of religious identity makes religious assimilation less possible than other forms of cultural assimilation • Religious identity heightened • The kin-country syndrome • How has religious identity been used to generate political change? • The example of Israel as the uniting would of Islamic identity movements

23. Why is the United States a Target? • America’s support of Israel, especially after the 1967 War- an Naksah “The Setback” in Arabic • America and its allies sent troops to Saudi Arabia in 1990 to oppose Saddam Hussein (See Osama bin Laden source) • Al-Qaeda “The base”- Terrorist network that organizes and trains in failed states or areas outside control of states • The Taliban’s (Governing party of Afghanistan) support of Al-Qaeda made it the target of a U.S invasion (longest war in American history)