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Understanding and Influencing Climate Change Dynamics

Explore system dynamics, cross-system interactions, challenges in understanding climate science, and the importance of effective communication. Discover tools like C-ROADS for climate modeling and policy analysis.

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Understanding and Influencing Climate Change Dynamics

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  1. The Dynamics of Climate Change: Understanding and Influencing the PlanetAndrew Jones, Climate Interactive XMILE Webinar – 8 October 2013

  2. My Main Points • System Dynamics • Powerful method • Climate Change • Our insights • Our contribution • Need for communications across difference

  3. We Use System Dynamics When: Urgent, important problem Disagreements or misunderstandings about dynamics and cross-system interactions Ideally, data-rich space. Past and/or future

  4. Motivation 1: Difficulty Assessing Results “...delegates [in Bonn] complained that their heads were spinning as they were trying to understand the science and assumptions underlying the increasing number of proposals tabled for Annex I countries’ emission reduction ranges.” “They all seem to use different base years and assumptions…:  how can we make any sense of them?” http://www.iisd.ca/vol12/enb12403e.html

  5. Current Confirmed Proposals and so on ... Compiled by Climate Interactive, Feb. 2 2010 release, http://climateinteractive.org/scoreboard/scoreboard-science-and-data

  6. Motivation 2: Pervasive Misunderstanding of Climate’s Dynamic Complexity John Sterman • Professor and Director of System Dynamics Group, MIT Sloan • Understanding Public Complacency About Climate Change: Adults' Mental Models of Climate Change Violate Conservation of Matter. • Climatic Change, 80, 213-238. • STERMAN, J. D. & BOOTH SWEENEY, L. (2007)

  7. Build upon work by our team Tom Fiddaman • PhD Thesis, MIT, 1997 • Feedback complexity in integrated climate-economy models • Ventana Systems

  8. Carbon Cycle and Radiative Balance • CO2 • CH4, N2O • PFCs, HFCs, SF6 etc. • Aerosols, Black carbon • Carbon & heat transfer between surface & deep ocean Other Forcings (10 layers)

  9. C-ROADS Scientific Review Panel • “C-ROADS… This very rapid simulation model reproduces the response properties of state-of-the-art three dimensional climate models very well … and with sufficient precision to provide useful information for its intended audience.” • Dr. Robert Watson - Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) and former chair, IPCC -- Panel Chair • Dr. Eric Beinhocker - McKinsey Global Institute • Dr. Klaus Hasselmann - Max-Planck Institut für Meteorologie • Dr. David Lane - London School of Economics • Dr. Jorgen Randers - Norwegian School of Management BI • Dr. Stephen Schneider - Stanford University • Dr. Bert de Vries - Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, RIVM

  10. C-ROADS Calibration to AR4 Scenarios

  11. At Copenhagen: “Country pledges to the UN are good enough”

  12. President Obama Briefed with C-ROADS 48 Hours Before Heads of State Meeting in Copenhagen

  13. U.S. State Dept’s Jonathan Pershing Presenting C-ROADS Results to the UN

  14. C-ROADS Used by Decision-Makers “I have to tell you — C-ROADS works, it is important, and it is already getting broad dissemination, ... I used it!” Senator John Kerry

  15. UN Climate After Country pledges to the UN are not enough Process for tracking using C-ROADS & other models

  16. China Provincial Sim Interface

  17. Meetings in Beijing At Tsinghua Univ. Simulation Used by Chinese Analysts in Support of Chinese Government Energy Policy

  18. C-Learn, Free Online Version

  19. The Climate Scoreboard

  20. World Climate – Role Play Exercise

  21. Play With the Sims • Beginner • iPad/iPhone: “Climate Pathways” • Intermediate • Search “C-Learn” online sim on “Forio” • Advanced User (Negotiator version) • Search “C-ROADS download” • Advanced Modeler • Email us and we’ll send the open source Vensim model • To Be Trained • Search “Climate Leader Interactive Course” – this winter

  22. ClimateInteractive.org apjones@ClimateInteractive.org

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