1 / 26

My Main Points

The Dynamics of Climate Change: Understanding and Influencing the Planet Andrew Jones, Climate Interactive XMILE Webinar – 8 October 2013. My Main Points. System Dynamics Powerful method Climate Change Our insights Our contribution Need for communications across difference.

indiya
Download Presentation

My Main Points

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. The Dynamics of Climate Change: Understanding and Influencing the PlanetAndrew Jones, Climate Interactive XMILE Webinar – 8 October 2013

  2. My Main Points • System Dynamics • Powerful method • Climate Change • Our insights • Our contribution • Need for communications across difference

  3. We Use System Dynamics When: Urgent, important problem Disagreements or misunderstandings about dynamics and cross-system interactions Ideally, data-rich space. Past and/or future

  4. Motivation 1: Difficulty Assessing Results “...delegates [in Bonn] complained that their heads were spinning as they were trying to understand the science and assumptions underlying the increasing number of proposals tabled for Annex I countries’ emission reduction ranges.” “They all seem to use different base years and assumptions…:  how can we make any sense of them?” http://www.iisd.ca/vol12/enb12403e.html

  5. Current Confirmed Proposals and so on ... Compiled by Climate Interactive, Feb. 2 2010 release, http://climateinteractive.org/scoreboard/scoreboard-science-and-data

  6. Motivation 2: Pervasive Misunderstanding of Climate’s Dynamic Complexity John Sterman • Professor and Director of System Dynamics Group, MIT Sloan • Understanding Public Complacency About Climate Change: Adults' Mental Models of Climate Change Violate Conservation of Matter. • Climatic Change, 80, 213-238. • STERMAN, J. D. & BOOTH SWEENEY, L. (2007)

  7. Build upon work by our team Tom Fiddaman • PhD Thesis, MIT, 1997 • Feedback complexity in integrated climate-economy models • Ventana Systems

  8. Carbon Cycle and Radiative Balance • CO2 • CH4, N2O • PFCs, HFCs, SF6 etc. • Aerosols, Black carbon • Carbon & heat transfer between surface & deep ocean Other Forcings (10 layers)

  9. C-ROADS Scientific Review Panel • “C-ROADS… This very rapid simulation model reproduces the response properties of state-of-the-art three dimensional climate models very well … and with sufficient precision to provide useful information for its intended audience.” • Dr. Robert Watson - Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) and former chair, IPCC -- Panel Chair • Dr. Eric Beinhocker - McKinsey Global Institute • Dr. Klaus Hasselmann - Max-Planck Institut für Meteorologie • Dr. David Lane - London School of Economics • Dr. Jorgen Randers - Norwegian School of Management BI • Dr. Stephen Schneider - Stanford University • Dr. Bert de Vries - Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, RIVM

  10. C-ROADS Calibration to AR4 Scenarios

  11. At Copenhagen: “Country pledges to the UN are good enough”

  12. President Obama Briefed with C-ROADS 48 Hours Before Heads of State Meeting in Copenhagen

  13. U.S. State Dept’s Jonathan Pershing Presenting C-ROADS Results to the UN

  14. C-ROADS Used by Decision-Makers “I have to tell you — C-ROADS works, it is important, and it is already getting broad dissemination, ... I used it!” Senator John Kerry

  15. UN Climate After Country pledges to the UN are not enough Process for tracking using C-ROADS & other models

  16. China Provincial Sim Interface

  17. Meetings in Beijing At Tsinghua Univ. Simulation Used by Chinese Analysts in Support of Chinese Government Energy Policy

  18. C-Learn, Free Online Version

  19. The Climate Scoreboard

  20. World Climate – Role Play Exercise

  21. Play With the Sims • Beginner • iPad/iPhone: “Climate Pathways” • Intermediate • Search “C-Learn” online sim on “Forio” • Advanced User (Negotiator version) • Search “C-ROADS download” • Advanced Modeler • Email us and we’ll send the open source Vensim model • To Be Trained • Search “Climate Leader Interactive Course” – this winter

  22. ClimateInteractive.org apjones@ClimateInteractive.org

More Related