March 5, 2011 American Physical Society Second Conference

1. March 5, 2011 American Physical Society Second Conference Physics of Sustainable Energy: Efficiency and Renewables, University of California, Berkeley The Future of Low Carbon Transportation FuelsSonia YehInstitute of Transportation StudiesUniversity of California, Davis

2. Background • Fuel Types and Technology • Biofuel • Electricity • Hydrogen • Infrastructure Issues • Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions • Externality • Policy Outline

3. Future US Fuel Use and GHG Emissions • Transportation will contribute to roughly 1/3 of total energy use and greenhouse gas emissions in the next 40 years. Based on AEO 2011 http://www.eia.doe.gov/forecasts/aeo/images/figure_7es-lg.jpg

4. So are consumers’ responses to gas price Cost of Driving will Continue to Decrease Source: Yeh, Sonia, and Daniel Sperling. 2010. Low carbon fuel standards: Implementation scenarios and challenges. Energy Policy 38 (11):6955-6965.DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2010.07.012.

5. Reference Energy System (RES) Today’s Transportation Fuels Conversion sector Diesel/Jet Biofuel Gasoline Biomass Oil Refinery/Gas Primary energy supply Refinery Other Liquid Fuel Oil resources Ethanol Unconventional: oil sands Transport Renewable/bio-diesel Gasoline/Diesel vehicle Corn, soybean, waste oil Aviation, shipping, ... • The externalities of fossil fuels were addressed by the previous panel thus are not emphasized here

6. Potential Future Transportation Fuels Wind, Solar, geothermal, hydro Conversion sector Diesel/hydrocarbon Biofuel Natural gas Electricity Gasoline Biomass Nuclear LH2 Gas Coal Oil Refinery/Gas Primary energy supply Refinery Gas processing Other Liquid Fuel Coal resources Ethanol Oil resources Transport Renewable/bio-diesel Unconventional: oil shale liquid, oil sands Gasoline/Diesel vehicle Coal/Gas-to-Liquid Natural gas vehicle Fischer-Tropsch Poly-gen Gas resources Hydrogen fuel cell v Unconventional: shale gas, coalbed methane Elec sector Electric vehicle Coal/Gas PP/CHP Plug-in hybrid vehicle Solar PV/thermal Aviation, shipping, ... Nuclear Biomass PP/CHP Corn, soybean, energy crops, ag/forest residues, municipal waste, grease, tallow, waste oil, algae Nuclear Wind converter Hydrogen CH2 Electrolysis Area wind Area solar Geothermal SMR Liquefication Gasification

7. Biofuel can be Derived from A Wide Range of Feedstock Forest biomass Agricultural residues Energy crops Waste streams 7 Source: Nathan Parker, ITS Davis

8. Biofuel • Estimates for total sustainably available biofuels vary widely. • Between $3 and $4/gge estimates range from 6.5% to 22% of total LDV vehicle fuel demand. • 200 to 250 commercial scale cellulosic biorefineries needed, costing $60-120 billion. from Domestic Sources can have Large Potentials Source: Nathan Parker, ITS Davis • A mixed of wastes and residues, corns, energy crops, soy/canola, tallow and grease is available. 8

9. Biofuel • Public perception of some sustainability issues associated with biofuels present a challenge for future development of biofuels • e.g. food price increase, global land use conversion, biodiversity loss, water and soil quality, water demand, human/labor rights • Global waves of sustainability reporting requirements and certification schemes • Not all biofuels are created equal • Performance-based standards are necessary to encourage innovation and improve sustainability • Certification won’t address some important issues of sustainability, e.g. cumulative effects on the environment, and land use conversion in response to higher commodity prices • Gov policies and monitoring will be required Concerns for Sustainability

10. Electricity Vehicles • Battery performance- price, durability and ability to fast charge. • Cost of batteries may encourage small battery PHEVs beyond early markets. Electricity/Infrastructure • How to provide charging to multi-unit dwellers / developing fast charging systems • If PEV charging demand is coordinated with grid system goals, grid will be capable of sustaining vehicles for decades. • Time of charging and regional variation in CO2 and criteria emission and Electric/Plugin Vehicles Source: Tom Turrentine, ITS Davis 10

11. A million PEVs charging at night is only about 1 % of the grid (California) Electricity Source: Chris Yang, ITS Davis

12. Electricity Afternoon charging (particularly during summer) can have a bigger impact on the grid and also higher GHG emissions August Annual avg. emissions Based on data from: McCarthy, Ryan, and Christopher Yang. 2010. Determining marginal electricity for near-term plug-in and fuel cell vehicle demands in California: Impacts on vehicle greenhouse gas emissions. Journal of Power Sources 195:2099-2109.

13. Electricity Significant regional variations in GHG emissions, but lower than gasoline Gasoline GHG intensity ~ 96 g CO2/MJ ECAR (East Central Area Reliability Coordinating Agreement) ; MAAC (Mid-Atlantic Area Council) ; MAIN (Mid-America Interconnected Network); MAPP (Mid-Continent Area Power Pool); SPP (Southwest Power Pool) ; ERCOT (Electric Reliability Council of Texas) ;NWP (Northwest Power Pool Area); CNV, (California and Southern Nevada). CNV, (California and Southern Nevada) 13 Source: EPA Analysis of American Power Act (2010). Provided by Chris Yang, ITS Davis

14. Electricity • Replacing gasoline fuel with electricity fuel lowers the cost of driving since electricity is cheaper per mile than gasoline The calculation excludes the equipment costs (e.g., incremental vehicle costs for batteries, motors, charging equipment for grid-connection-capable vehicles) Low Cost/Carbon Fuel At $3/gallon, gasoline-mile cost of driving $0.12/mile At $0.13/kWh, electric-mile cost of driving $0.03/mile Carbon intensity of gasoline mile is 438 gCO2e/mile Carbon intensity of electric mile in California is 189 gCO2e/mile after adjusting for efficiency (60% reduction in carbon intensity)

15. Hydrogen Fuel cell vehicles rapidly approaching technology goals • FC durability • FC cost • H2 Storage • Low Cost, Low-C H2 production Source: Ogden, Joan M., Joshua M. Cunningham, Michael A. Nicholas (2010) Roadmap for Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Vehicles in California: A Transition Strategy through 2017. Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis, Research Report UCD-ITS-RR-10-04.

16. Hydrogen can be produced from various sources at various scales Source: Yeh, S., D. H. Loughlin, C. Shay, and C. Gage. 2006. An Integrated Assessment of the Impacts of Hydrogen Economy on Transportation, Energy Use, and Air Emissions. Proceedings of the IEEE 94 (10):1838-1851.

17. Hydrogen Infrastructure evolves from distributed to central production w/H2 delivery US Scenario for FCV rollout and H2 cost v. time Source: J. Ogden and C. Yang, “Build-up of a hydrogen infrastructure in the US,” Chapter 15, in The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities and Challenges, edited by Dr Michael Ball and Dr Martin Wietschel, Cambridge University Press, 2009, pp.454-482.

18. Hydrogen Social Lifecycle Cost : H2 FCV v. Gasoline H2 FCVs have lower external costs than gasoline vehicles => H2 FCVs compete sooner, if social costs are counted in lifecycle cost. Yongling Sun, Joan Ogden and Mark Delucchi, “Societal Life-cycle Buy-down Cost of Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles,” International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 2010, 35, Issue 21., November 2010, pp. 11932-11946.

19. Summary: GHG Performance of Fuels There are still great uncertainties, particularly with regards to the emissions that may have occurred due to unintended consequences California LCFS greenhouse gas (GHG)-intensity ratings (gCO2e/MJ) for transportation fuels, adjusted for vehicle efficiency. Although uncertainties are not indicated in this graph, the uncertainties of indirect emissions are much larger than the uncertainties of direct emissions. Source: CARB (2009, 2010). The cellulosic ethanol pathways do not yet have an iLUC value.

20. Summary: Fuel Infrastructure Design Challenges Source: Chris Yang, ITS Davis

21. Summary: Fuel Transition Needs Source: Chris Yang, ITS Davis

22. Each fuel type (biofuel, electricity, and H2) has challenges in deploying infrastructure • But infrastructure deployment is focused on different parts of supply chain for different fuels and pathways • Important to analyze infrastructure deployment along many different axes • Biofuels are familiar fuels and require fewer vehicle changes to implement, widespread supply and conversion infrastructure, limits to resource availability • Electricity requires least new infrastructure (home chargers) as part of larger electric power system, limited by vehicle deployment • H2 requires biggest infrastructure changes, new refueling stations and production and delivery (for central H2), coordination for chicken and egg Key Messages: Fuel and Infrastructure Challenges Source: Chris Yang, ITS Davis 22

23. Key Messages: A portfolio approach will give us the best chance of meeting stringent goals for a sustainable transportation future Given the uncertainties, and the long timelines, it is critical to nurture a portfolio of key technologies toward commercialization and to start now McCollum, David L. (2011) Achieving Long-term Energy, Transport and Climate Objectives: Multi-dimensional Scenario Analysis and Modeling within a Systems Level Framework. Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis, Research Report UCD-ITS-RR-11-02

24. Research: work with academic communities and stakeholders to improve the scientific understanding of sustainability impacts of ALL fuels • Incentives: directly incentivize the development and use of low-GHG /sustainable fuels through performance-based standards and market mechanisms. Gov shouldn’t pick winners! But policies are needed to level the playing field! • Standards: adopt enforceable, effective sustainability policies to • Prevent conversion of ecologically sensitive and high-carbon areas and environmental degradation for fuels production; • Continuous monitoring and assessments of unintended consequences within or beyond the production areas Key Messages: Sustainability

25. Sustainable Transportation Energy Pathways (STEPS), ITS, UC Davis http://steps.its.ucdavis.edu Chris Yang and Tom Turrentine (Electricity and Infrastructure) Nathan Parker (Biofuel) Joan Ogden (Hydrogen)