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NMDB: Real-Time database for high resolution Neutron Monitor measurements

NMDB: Real-Time database for high resolution Neutron Monitor measurements Grant Agreement Number 213007 Combination of Collaborative Project and Coordination and Support Action Progress Periodic report on WP5 Period covered: 1.01 to 31.12.2008

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NMDB: Real-Time database for high resolution Neutron Monitor measurements

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  1. NMDB: Real-Time database for high resolution Neutron Monitor measurements Grant Agreement Number 213007 Combination of Collaborative Project and Coordination and Support Action Progress Periodic report on WP5 Period covered: 1.01 to 31.12.2008 Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio wave propagation Russian Academy of Sciences Eugenia Eroshenko, 142190, Troitsk, Moscow region Tel. +7 496 751 0925; Fax 7 496 751 0124; e-mail: erosh@izmiran.ru

  2. Deliverables: brief description 5.1 Implementation of an automated real time system to generate ALERT of GLE occurrence (IZMIRAN, NKUA, Almaty, Kosice, UBERN, Aragats, TAU). Delivery : month 20, Milestone 12 • 5.2 Real-time modeling of GLE. (NKUA, IZMIRAN, TAU). Month18. • 5.3.1-5.3.3 GLE radiation intensity mapping (UBERN, NKUA). Months 5, 12, 24. • 5.4.1 Hourly CR variations and their pitch angle and longitude distributions (IZMIRAN, NKUA, Kosice,TAU) Delivery: month 18 • 5.4.2 Deriving the CR parameters at the top of the Magnetosphere from real time data (IZMIRAN, NKUA, Almaty). Month 20 • 5.5 Calculation of rigidity spectrum of CR variations by daily and monthly NM data (IZMIRAN, Kosice, Almaty, TAU) Delivery: Month 20. • 5.6 Computation of CR fluctuations in the short time scales (UNIROMA3 – DIP FIS, Kosice, Almaty). Delivery Month 21 • 5.7 Create a Library with description of all applications and input-output information. (All participants) - Delivery: Month 23.

  3. 5.1 Implementation of an automated real time system to generate ALERT of GLE occurrence (IZMIRAN, NKUA, Almaty, Kosice, UBERN, Aragats, TAU). Delivery: month 20. Milestone-12. (3 of 6 p/m) • The goal of this Application: • to produce the ALERT signal in graphic and digit forms indicating the start of GLE by Neutron Monitor data; • to produce an automated electronic warning and send out by different addresses; • use the Alert signal as trigger for running of other program. Fig.1 The GLE on October 28 2003. X-Ray (black curve, GOES10), South Pole NM (red line), and protons of >10 MeV (green) and >100MeV (blue) data during that time. One can see a significant difference in the onset of event by these components.

  4. 5.1 ALERT System (IZMIRAN, NKUA, Almaty, Kosice, UBERN, Aragats, TAU). Delivery: month 20. Milestone-12. (3 of 6 p/m are used) Milestone: The prototype of software for the ALERT signal producing. • The prototypes of working program on the generation of ALERT signal, using 1-5 min data from different stations in NMDB, are created and run in real time on the servers NKUA and IZMIRAN. • Monitoring of GLE. The IZMIRAN group elaborated also TestAlert program which is operating in real time and checking the functioning of the main ALERT program, especially when the GLEs are absent during long time. • NKUA tested the ATHENS Alert system on the historical data and some conclusions about data quality and partial efficiency to the Alert are extracted. • Now the scripts on the ALERT generation and protocol Tables are placed in real time by the address: ftp://cr0.izmiran.rssi.ru/NMDB_doc/ALERT/. • It seems both these versions (NKUA and IZMIRAN) are reliable and may be installed at NMDB server after the trial period: they will work in parallel, control the real situation and support each other. • The next steps (up to Month 20) are: further adjusting ALERT software to developing database (including a chance of different station selection, involve X-Ray and data of particle channels from satellites); definition of circle of addresses for sending out the ALERT signal and the establishment of this warning system on the NMDB.

  5. 5.1 Implementation of an automated real time system to generate ALERT of GLE occurrence (IZMIRAN, NKUA, Almaty, Kosice, UBERN, Aragats, TAU). Two other Teams (Aragats and TAU) developed algorithms based on the use of own data from these stations (See description in the full periodic report by WP5 and by these Teams). Time series from Aragats Space Environment (ASEC) monitors as well as data on X-ray flux measured by GOES satellite are used for issuing alerts and forewarnings on severe conditions of Space Weather. TAU Team developed and checked in continue mode method of real time ALERT on the basis of independent one-min data from two or three sections of NM. They determined probabilities of false alert and probability of missed trigger in dependence of NM accuracy per one minute and amplitude of GLE. These results are valuable for a construction of other ALERT systems. These mountain stations (Lomnitsky Stit, Jungfraujoch, Almaty, Aragats, Mt. Hermon) are very suitable for monitoring of the Solar Neutron Enhancements and can provide this under sufficient number of mountain stations operating in real time. Thus, the software developed and applied by these Teams is very useful for solar neutron monitoring. The operating prototype of the software of solar neutron monitoring is in the process. The program of index distribution of possible solar neutron effect by the globe is elaborated.

  6. 5.2 Real-time modeling of GLE. (NKUA, IZMIRAN, TAU).Deliverable:Month18Milestone: Month 12.(3 of 6.5 p/m)Theprototype of software for calculation of the solar CR parameters in real time code. December 2008 Fig. 2: Anisotropy function versus geographical latitude and longitude of the anisotropy source, according to the NM-BANGLE model. Left panel corresponds to 13 December 2006 - 3:00 UT whereas the right panel to 3:30 UT. • Output: graphic and digit presentation of the parameters of SCR variation: spectra and anisotropy; updating every minute from the beginning of event.

  7. 5.2 Real-time modeling of GLE. (NKUA, IZMIRAN, TAU).Deliverable:Month18.Milestone: Month 12.(3 of 6.5 p/m) • Two tentative versions of the simplifier ‘cut’ working program are created allowing one to derive SCR parameters in real time by the limited number of stations (about 16). The first steps have been realized by NKUA, where translating the actual program of the NM-Bangle model in C language was undertaken. Because of the real time database was not completely filled yet, they have used some ‘virtual inputs’ in order to simulate the actual real time procedure. • Apatity ‘cut’ program was trialed on the 12 retrospective GLE events, and good agreement was obtained with the results in the earlier studies obtained. • The prototype of the system of early forecast of radiation hazardous fluxes of solar cosmic rays in space on the basis of the real time neutron monitor data is created.

  8. 5.2 Real-time modeling of GLE. (NKUA, IZMIRAN, TAU).Deliverable:Month18Milestone: Month 12.(3 of 6.5 p/m) • TAUdeveloped special spectrographic method and calculated special spectrographic functions for using different pairs of NMs with different cutoff rigidities (e.g., Moscow-Mt. Hermon, Kiel-Almaty, Mt. Aragats-Mt. Hermon, Apatity-Athens, Athens-Mt. Hermon, Rome-Mt. Hermon, Kiel-Mt. Aragats, Kiel-Mt. Hermon and many others) for determining on-line energy spectrum of SEP out of atmosphere and magnetosphere and its evolving during GLE event. • The next steps: • improve these short ‘cut’ versions (NKUA, IZMIRAN-Apatity) incorporating all new available NMs which should appear in the NMDB (January-May 2009). • Creation of the internet project (May- July 2009) with installation this program on NMDB server, or – providing corresponding links to the servers of this program running • develop the interface for automated transferring GLE parameters to server UBERN (to implement them in 5.3.3) and/or NMDB.

  9. 5.3.1-5.3.3 GLE radiation intensity mapping (UBERN, NKUA). Months 5, 12, 24. • UBERN: Calculation of ionization and radiation doses in the Earth's atmosphere The individual steps to include the computation of ionization and radiation doses into the NMDB are listed in the following: Development of a suite of computer programs to compute the cosmic ray flux at the top of the atmosphere based on Geant4 code MAGNETOCOSMICS. 1 January - 30 April 2008. This work is successfully done. Development of a software package to determine the ionization and radiation dose in the Earth's atmosphere (at grid points, at different altitudes) based on Geant4 code PLANETOCOSMICS. May-December 2008. The prototype of this program is created and tested on the events in December 2006. A detailed description of methods and algorithms are given in the extended periodic reports by BERN on Deliverable 5.3 and IZMIRAN on Deliverable 5.5. These calculations use the results of Del.5.2 and Del. 5.5.

  10. 5.3.1-5.3.3GLE radiation intensity mapping(UBERN, NKUA). Months 5, 12, 24. (3 of 7 p/m) • The next steps for the 2009: • - Development of software to visualize the results of the ionization and radiation dose computations for webpage publication on NMDB. January 1 - April 30, 2009 • - Implementation of this program suite into NMDB, including an interface to get the parameters of the cosmic ray flux outside the magnetosphere from NMDB and to transfer the resulting data (tables and graphs of ionization and radiation doses) to the NMDB. May 1 – August 31, 2009 • - Preparation of software documentation. September 1, 2009 - December 31, 2009

  11. 5.4.1 Hourly CR variations and their pitch angle and longitude distributions (IZMIRAN, NKUA, Kosice,TAU)Delivery: month 18 This application is important to search for the precursors of Forbush effects (and geomagnetic storms) by the data of world wide NM network, using the method of “station ring”. Output : graphic presentation of longitudinal distribution of CR variations as function of the time (or, pitch-angle distribution), with hourly updating. There is no digital data output NM ring method is used for a construction of longitudinal distribution of the observed galactic CR variations. Monitoring of the CR anisotropy. Readiness:The working ‘stand-alone’ version is developed.The prototype of the Internet version is prepared already using data from NMdb (9 stations) and partly data from other resources: http://cr20.izmiran.ru/monitoringcranisotropy/index.php (IZMIRAN database). The using data is organized by ‘modules’ (from NMDB or from other sources) which can be easily exchanged when the new stations are incorporated into NMDB

  12. Model of web-page for CR anisotropy monitoring(ring of neutron monitors) http://cr20.izmiran.ru/monitoringcranisotropy/index.php Fig.3.The CR variations relatively to the quiet period are presented as yellow (increased) and red circles (decreased); vertical lines correspond to the sudden storm commencement (SSC). One can see a specific distribution of CR variations well before the shock arrival. This picture is plotted by the data of about 35 NMS.

  13. Operating version of software for CR anisotropy monitoring Fig. 4. Well known GLE occurred on June 15, 1991 (large yellow circles) on the background of the strong geomagnetic storm and deep Forbush effect (red circles). Notifications are the same as in the previous figure. Two new SSC came after the GLE, but before the first shock a clear precursor is observed.

  14. Operating version of software for CR anisotropy monitoring Fig. 5. Distribution of the CR variations by the asymptotic longitudes for December 2006. A much greater effect of GLE is clearly seen at two southern stations as compared with all others. Before the first SSC a clear pre-decrease (as a precursor) is seen at the stations within the asymptotic longitude range ~45-135 –along the IMF direction.

  15. Interface of software for CR anisotropy monitoring Fig. 4. The asymptotic distribution obtained for 22.02.09 by the data from NMDB. The large empty belts by the longitudes are the result of insufficient number of stations providing observations. • The next steps: • Elaboration of software for graphical plot of longitudinal and pitch angle distribution of hourly CR variations inReal Time. January – April 2009 • Implementation of this programsuite into NMDB, including an interface to get the visualization of CR distribution with the aim to search for theprecursorsof interplanetary disturbances. April - July 2009 • Preparation of software documentation. May-July 2009

  16. 5.4.2 Deriving the CR parameters at the top of the Magnetosphere from real time data (IZMIRAN, NKUA, Almaty).Month 20 • Milestone: Creation of the prototype of software for realization the GSM in real time code(December 2008). Our task is to get the CR variations in the space, beyond the Earth’s atmosphere and magnetosphere using hourly data from the world wide NM network.; Output data: graphical and digital presentation of the CR density and anisotropy with every hour updating; The prototype of software is created and run in real time mode; The results from the set of NMs obtained are every hour updated and available by the address ftp://cr0.izmiran.rssi.ru/GSM/RESULT/. GSM program uses as many as possible stations from the world, and now the process is organized by modules, collected data from nmdb and from other possible sources. Fig. 5. Parameters of CR at the top of magnetosphere derived by GSM from NM network data

  17. 5.4.2 Deriving the CR parameters at the top of the Magnetosphere from real time data: prototype of the operating version of GSM program For real time calculations there is a high requirement to the data quality. On the first stage of calculations (stations with low rigidity) the program excludes the points where data exceeded 3 sigma or are absent (white co., left Fig.). On the second stage the complete set of stations is used (also, excluding the absent and bad points. The every hour updated data, selected for a current and previous month, are accessible by the address ftp://cr0.izmiran.rssi.ru/GSM/INPUTGSM/ . Next steps: Visualization of the GSM results in real time. Filtration of the input data (July). Implementation of this program and results suite into NMDB (August). Preparation of documentation (August)

  18. 5.5 Calculation of rigidity spectrum of CR variations by daily and monthly NM data (IZMIRAN, Kosice, Almaty, TAU)Delivery: Month 20. The prototype of the software of rigidity spectra calculation by the data from nmdb - December 2008. Output: parameters of rigidity spectra of galactic CR variations which are ‘pushed’ to NMDB or UBERN server The working “stand-alone” version of the program is developed as well as the working Internet version:ftp://cr0.izmiran.rssi.ru/NMDB_doc/DailySpectraCR/ The preliminary results are obtained for December 2006 and sent to Rolf Beutikofer for implementation to further calculations on WP5.3 Sending the results from NKUA (for SCR) and IZMIRAN (for GCR) was organized to the UBERN server so far, but now it should be rearranged for NMDB server.

  19. Daily rigidity spectra calculated by the used model for different parameters b: These results are used for real spectra calculations. A full description is in the IZMIRAN and UBERN quarterly reports.

  20. Operating version of software for spectra calculation Next steps: 1) Adjusting this software to real time data; 2) develop the interface for automated transferring results to server UBERN and/or NMDB. 3) Preparation of documentation – by November 2009.

  21. Del. 5.6. Computation of CR fluctuations on short time scales ( Kosice, UNIROMA3 – DIP FIS, Almaty). Delivery Month 21 • Input data: one-minute data from several high latitude NMs, and low latitude NMs with high statistics, such as Almaty, Lomnitsky Stit, Jungfraujoch, Apatity, Oulu, Rome, Moscow; data of the IMF available in real time code. • Output data: Wavelet spectrum and power spectrum of CR density over periodicities 2 hours – 11 years. Almaty Team verified 1-hour data from all period of NM operation since 1973. The old 5-minute data were transferred in digital form, verified and compared with 1-hour data since January 1975 till January 1989. All these data have been sent to NMDB. The program for computation of CR fluctuations on short time scales using wavelet analysis is in the process. Data from Lomnicky Stit NM were checked for simultaneous profiles of 4 independent channels and used in the publications: Hourly and 5-min data of ROME NM from May 21,1997 to December 2007 are also included in the NMDB portal, after an elaboration for adapt the format of the NMDB table structure. Historical 5 -min data from January 1, 1988 to May 20, 1997 have been recovered and adapted to NMDB Tables.

  22. Del. 5.6. Computation of CR fluctuations Kosice Teamapplied a B-spline fit to the data points obtained from FFT analysis and showd a selection different time periodicities in the CR strongly correlated with the IMF behavior (the quasiperiodicity from ~27-day to a 2.2 year variability is pronounced). These are caused by different reasons and each of them is worthy to be analised and used for diagnosis the situation with the interplanetary disturbances during their propagation to the Earth. Periodogram of time series of Lomnický Štít cosmic ray intensity (1982-2006) in three different selections of period intervals. During the second year of NMDB the data uploaded from various stations will serve as input for more detailed analysis of specific intervals will be done in connection with IMF, solar wind and geomagnetic activity indices. The wavelet analysis will be applied to Almaty and other mountain station data from the NMDB in real time code.

  23. SUMMARY • In total the work on the WP5 progresses according to the schedule. • The database still is not completely filled, and our applications are developing together with its improving. • The preparing work was done in sufficient volume to provide the applications in real time. • We have to work on a possibility to use data from NMDB and from other stations as well. Elaboration of software for collecting data from all possible sources of NM network including NMDB was performed on the ‘module’ basis, with a possibility to exchange uploading data from other sources by the uploading from NMDB. • We hope that a number of other necessary stations will be gradually introduced into NMDB. • The fact, that in majority of applications data from additional to NMDB number of NMs needs to be used, is an important reason for enlarging the NMDB. Our opinion is that EC is able to be the main coordinator for data accumulation from the world wide network, and might do the best for this.

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